It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The ace who just last year produced the lowest ERA (1.66) in a single season among qualified starting pitchers since Greg Maddux in 1995 and the lowest WHIP (0.84) since Pedro Martinez in 2000 wasn’t supposed to struggle like this. But things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for Zack Greinke since signing a six-year, $208 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks this past offseason. His current 1.31 WHIP isn’t too far off from last year’s ERA and his current 4.59 ERA is almost triple that of last season’s mark. At this rate, Greinke and his fantasy owners are unlikely to remain friends forever. But what exactly has happened here? Is he going to turn things around, or was last season just a fluke?
Let’s take a look at Greinke’s profile to determine why he’s struggling and what can be expected from him moving forward. Here are a few observations:
• His new home ballpark is more hitter-friendly than his old one. You can probably file this one under “well, duh” but Chase Field in Arizona has been a more offensive-friendly environment than Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles over the last few years. In terms of runs scored from 2013-2015, Chase Field finished among the top 6 ballparks in MLB while Dodger Stadium was the fourth lowest in that category. However, it might surprise you to learn that…
• His new home ballpark is less homer-friendly than his old one. This statement isn’t true in regards to the 2016 season thus far (Chase Field is currently 4th in MLB HR park factor; Dodger Stadium is 18th), but it is true as far as the previous three seasons are concerned. From 2013-2015, Chase Field ranked 15th in MLB while Dodger Stadium ranked 12th in that category. In regards to Greinke, this information makes it somewhat curious that…
• He’s allowing homers at his highest rate in the last decade. Greinke has surrendered 8 long balls in 64.2 innings thus far in 2016, good for a 1.11 HR/9 rate. That would represent his worst result in that category over a full season since 2005. His HR/9 over his three year stint with the Dodgers was 0.69. It could just be smallish sample size noise, or perhaps the lack of a book on Trevor Story (who took him deep twice on Opening Day), especially when considering the fact that compared to previous seasons…
• His batted ball profile is virtually unchanged. In fact, Greinke is allowing fewer fly balls this season (30.2% FB% in 2016; 32.9% in 2015), but more of them have managed to leave the park (13.3% HR/FB this season; 9.2% career). Quality of contact is virtually identical to recent seasons as well. It’s also encouraging to see that…
• His strikeout rate, walk rate, velocity, and pitch selection are extremely similar to last season as well. Greinke’s K/9 (8.07 to 8.08) and BB/9 (1.81 to 1.62) when comparing this season to last indicates similar control and the ability to miss bats. His velocity on the fourseam fastball is still sitting in the 92-93 mph range while his FB/SL/CH/CU arsenal and usage patterns remain intact. Perhaps the biggest differences in Greinke’s profile from last season to this season are his…
• Significantly higher BABIP and his poor strand rate. Greinke’s BABIP has risen almost 100 points (.229 to .328) while his LOB% has fallen 15% (86.5% to 70.5%) from 2015 to 2016. It’s probably fair to conclude that his .229 BABIP from a year ago was at least partially the result of some good fortune, but it’s swung the other way for him this season, especially in regards to his strand rate. From 2013-15, Greinke didn’t post a strand rate lower than 79.7%, so even though he now calls Chase Field home, that current 70.5% mark should normalize in the coming weeks.
Bottom line: There’s no question that Greinke got off to a terrible start in Arizona this year. Through his first five starts, his numbers (6.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.04 K/9, 1.47 HR/9) were quite an eyesore. Very quietly though, he’s righted the ship over his last five starts (3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.00 K/9, 0.79 HR/9), and is beginning to resemble the dominant pitcher that he was last season. Chase Field (and neutral luck) is likely to result in a BABIP closer to .300 than .200 for him this season, but he looks like a top 15 fantasy SP. There might be a brief buy low opportunity here.
Final Verdict:
