Last season, Gary Sanchez clubbed 33 home runs with a .278/.345/.531 slash. As a result, fantasy players were drafting Sanchez with the 34th pick on average. Cue the Grey cackle. What What???!!! When our mustached leader descended from the peak of Mt. Tout, he read these words from the tablet that was being carried in the hand that wasn’t holding his boba drink: Thou shall not draft catchers early. Now, I know there are sinners among you. It’s ok. We are not perfect beings and many of us succumb to temptations. What’s done is done. That’s right. Not only did you sin, but you’ve been experiencing a Dirty Sanchez up to this point, as Gary is batting .190/.291/.430. What to do? What to do?
Sanchez has clubbed 12 home runs, so the Sanchez hasn’t been that dirty. That’s what she said. The walk rate is at a career high 12.2% and strikeout rate is 24.8%. A tad high, but not too far off from last season’s 22.9%. The swinging strike rate is a career-low 11.9% and he’s chasing pitches at a career-low 31.2%. The contact rate in the zone is at a career-high 86.8%. What what???!!! What the hell is the problem then?
Hard hit rate is fine at 34% and he’s barrelling balls at a 13.9% rate, which is 2% higher than last year. The things that stand out to me when I look at the batted ball data are that he’s not hitting line drives (13.9% vs 21.1% last year) and the pop up rate is at an elevated rate of 23.4%. In 2017, that number was at 10.8%. In addition, the fly ball rate has increased from 36.6% to 44.4%, while the ground ball rate has essentially stayed the same. What’s it all mean?
My first reaction was to think that Sanchez was just swinging for the fences. Makes sense, especially when the launch angle data shows an increase from 14.6 to 13.2 the prior year. But then I had a change of heart. I think part of the problem is a timing issue. Getting under balls and popping them up. As a result, fewer balls driven into the gaps. The other part, though, seems to be a bigger issue. For the first two years of Sanchez’s major league career, teams were employing the shift against him 25.4% and 27.5% of the time. This season? 39.9%! All those ground balls that were getting through, are now being gobbled up. That .197 BABIP may not be so unlucky after all.
With that said, a .197 BABIP is just ridiculous. Sanchez will get his timing back and start hitting more line drives. The .240 ISO is legit, so he will likely end up with around 30 home runs. Just don’t expect anything close to a .278 batting average.
VERDICT
