For the first seven years of his career, Elvis Andrus was a light-hitting shortstop that would provide cheap speed for fantasy teams. That Elvis has left the building. Unlike Mr. Presley, who aged into a fat slob which lowered the barriers to entry for employment as an impersonator, Mr. Andrus has become phat. For those that only know # as a hashtag, phat was synonymous with great, back in the 90’s. I still can’t believe phat was a thing.
Anyways, Andrus is the #1 shortstop in fantasy right now. He’s batting .305 with seven home runs, 34 runs scored, 32 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. The wOBA is .353 and ISO is .170.
For perspective, the ISO has been below .100 six of the last eight seasons and the season-high in home runs is eight, which occurred last year…
Digging a little deeper into the numbers, the transformation actually started back in 2015. Andrus hit seven home runs that year, after never eclipsing six in a season. The ISO jumped to .099, after being in the .060 range the prior two seasons. It all makes sense when looking at the change in approach he began to exhibit. Andrus started pulling the ball more. The pull% went from 32% to 43%. The swinging strike rate went up and the chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone increased. That makes sense, as he started selling out for a little more power. As a result, the hard contact rate increased.
Since 2015, pull% has gone from 43% to 48%, hard contact rate from 27% to 30%, swinging strike rate from 6% to 9%, chase rate from 25% to 35%, and strikeout rate from 12% to 16%. Correspondingly, the ISO has gone from .099 to .170 and wOBA from .292 to .353.
Basically, I’m saying that this is not an outlier year for Andrus. It has been years in the making. Volcanoes do not suddenly spew their loads of magma onto the surface of the Earth out of nowhere. The magma slowly makes its way to the surface, exerting pressure, until finally the volcano pops like a pimple.
Let’s not forget that Andrus is 6′ 0″ 200 pounds and is entering the physical prime of his career at 28 years old. It’s not like he’s Erick Aybar or Chone Figgins. In addition, he’s still got the legs to steal bases and have a higher-than-normal BABIP, which is .341 by the way. There’s a chance of some negative regression, but Andrus had a .302 average with a .333 BABIP in 568 plate appearances last season.
To top it all off, Andrus hits second or third in a lineup that can be potent. In a ballpark that is very good for right-handed power. And summer is coming, which should make Globe Life Park a launching pad.
VERDICT
