David Ortiz has been a dominant offensive force since joining the Red Sox in 2003. During the time period from ’03 to present day, he’s one of only three MLB players to hit at least 400 home runs (Albert Pujols and Adam Dunn are the others); one of three players to knock in at least 1300 runs (Miguel Cabrera and Pujols); he’s 11 walks shy of 1000 which would make him just the 2nd player to reach that mark (Dunn); he’s also produced the 6th highest OPS as well as the 2nd highest ISO (behind only Barry Bonds) during this span. Basically, Big Papi has been an extremely patient hitter with massive power who’s been really good for a really long time. He certainly hasn’t been sloppy like this Poppie. But no player can elude Father Time forever. Except for Julio Franco. I think he was around 60 when he retired. However, most players begin to see their production drop off by their mid-30s at the latest. While Ortiz still appears to be going strong, how much gas does he have left in the tank in his age 39 season?
As luck would have it, I just so happen to have a player in mind who compares reasonably well to Ortiz. This player was a patient hitter with elite power who was a dominant offensive force throughout the majority of his career. He too enjoyed success well into his thirties much like Ortiz. I’m referring to recent Hall of Fame inductee Frank Thomas. First, let’s take a look at each player’s age 36-38 seasons to determine what effect(s) aging had on his production:
| Season | Name | Team | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | BB/K | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 36 | 383 | 23 | 65 | 60 | 1.1 | 0.318 | 0.415 | 0.611 | 0.425 |
| 2004 | Frank Thomas | White Sox | 36 | 311 | 18 | 53 | 49 | 1.12 | 0.271 | 0.434 | 0.563 | 0.425 |
| 2013 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 37 | 600 | 30 | 84 | 103 | 0.86 | 0.309 | 0.395 | 0.564 | 0.4 |
| 2006 | Frank Thomas | Athletics | 38 | 559 | 39 | 77 | 114 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.381 | 0.545 | 0.392 |
| 2005 | Frank Thomas | White Sox | 37 | 124 | 12 | 19 | 26 | 0.52 | 0.219 | 0.315 | 0.59 | 0.374 |
| 2014 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 38 | 602 | 35 | 59 | 104 | 0.79 | 0.263 | 0.355 | 0.517 | 0.369 |
Due to space considerations, I included BB/K ratio instead of separate BB% and K% for each player, but Ortiz and Thomas both typically produced 12-15% BB% and sub-18% K% across these seasons, with the Big Hurt’s injury-shortened ’05 season being the notable exception. It looks like a .270/30/100 type of full-season pace was the minimum that was produced by each player across these seasons. Although Ortiz posted a 1.026 OPS in 2012, those results were generally in the low-mid .900s for each player. Similar BB/K ratios as well, with that ’05 season of Thomas’ being the biggest outlier in that category.
Now let’s take a look at Thomas’ age-39 season as well as the early results from Ortiz’s 2015 campaign:
| Season | Name | Team | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | BB/K | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Frank Thomas | Blue Jays | 39 | 624 | 26 | 63 | 95 | 0.86 | 0.277 | 0.377 | 0.48 | 0.373 |
| 2015 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 39 | 107 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0.68 | 0.25 | 0.336 | 0.435 | 0.332 |
Ortiz has started off a bit slowly this season, but that hasn’t been an unusual occurrence for him. His career .857 OPS in March/April is by far lowest out of any month in his career. His plate discipline numbers are very close to his career averages, while his 287.82 ft average fly ball distance in ’15 ranks 70th out of 203 qualifiers and is well above the league average. A batting line similar to the Big Hurt’s ’07 campaign (63/26/95/0/.277) seems to be very much within reach. Don’t give up on the old man just yet.
Final Verdict:
