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Since being drafted with the 20th pick of the first round in 2016 by the Dodgers, high expectations have been placed on Gavin Lux. By 2019, he was one of the top prospects in baseball by 2019, ranked 40th overall by Baseball America and 70th by MLB Pipeline. Lux was so impressive in the minors, he appeared in 23 games with the Dodgers that season at the age of 21, slashing .240/.305/.400 with two homers and nine RBI.

In Double-A and Triple A in ’19, Lux slashed .347/.421/.617 with 26 homers, 76 RBI and 10 steals. That showing moved Lux up the prospects rankings in 2020 as he was ranked as the fourth overall prospect by BA and second by MLB.

Sadly for Lux owners, the Lux Era become a reality. In 2020 he played sporadically before given a chunk of time to prove himself last season. However, instead of establishing himself as the second baseman of the future, he turned into a utility player, seeing time at second base, shortstop, left field, center field and even one game apiece at third base and right field.

Lux is only 24-years-old, so there much more future than past when it comes to his career. Unfortunately, he has not established himself. Thus, we have to ask “is Lux really is going to be the player we expected him to become?” If not, who else should we look at who may have a better future?

There are two middle infielders who are basically the same age as Lux – 24-year-old Jeremy Pena of the Astros and 23-year-old Jose Barrero of the Reds. Pena has yet to play a game in the majors but has been given the task of replacing Carlos Correa. Barrero, who has had a couple of cups of coffee with the Reds the past two years, suffered a broken hamate bone and is now out until at least May, but we are looking into the future and not just today.

Let’s discuss these three players and find out what I think their future is.

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Spring training is fully underway and fantasy baseball season is now in full force.

Thousands of people like you and me have already been in a draft or two (or three or four) while others are still preparing for their first draft (or second, third or fourth). If you need a refresher on my top 125 keepers, please go back and take a gander at my rankings.

With the top keepers now listed and out of the way, let’s focus on three players this week who I ranked 62nd, 72nd and 79th overall – Brandon Lowe, Jonathan India and Jazz Chisholm Jr. After the top group, these players will likely still be on the board in the sixth round or so in a 12-team league, and I picked this trio because they are all under the age of 29 and all three are close in age – Lowe is 27, India is 25 and Chisholm is 24.

In any dynasty league, production is always the top factor. But unless you are playing to win immediately and not worry about winning in 2027, then a player’s age plays a role into who you draft, mixed in with the need to win in the future. That magic formula plus my gut put Lowe ahead of India with Chisholm bringing up the rear.

Do those rankings still hold up? Let’s take a deep dive into Brandon Lowe, Jonathan India and Jazz Chisholm Jr. and find out.

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We’ve finally made it – the final top dynasty keepers! The best of the best, the cream of the crop, or any other cliché you can think of.

You’ve been waiting for weeks to see who made the top 25, right? Well, ff you are a fan of hoarding the top fantasy pitchers, then this top 25 is not for you as only two hurlers cracked my Tier 1 group.

I understand the importance of pitching in real life, but in the fantasy baseball world, I’ve always been able to cobble together a solid pitching pitching staff during the season either with trades or timely free agent adds. In all of the dynasty leagues I’m in, I have used my prospects as trade chips to bring in established pitchers.

If you love to add players 30 or older, you will also not be a fan of my Tier 1 group. I love Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman (the lone 30-or-older players to make this list), but I’m building a dynasty team. I want the youngest top players possible. That said, Trout is still in my Top 10 while Freeman comes in at No. 21 thanks mostly to the fact he is 32. But with the universal DH, I could understand why he should be a top 20 player.

Just Draft Dodgers!

When sitting on the couch watching a baseball game and one of your favorite teams is whoever is playing the Los Angeles Dodgers, you are not going to like this list either.

The Dodgers have four of my top 25 keepers (Freeman, Walker Buehler, Mookie Betts and Trea Turner) and could have had five if Corey Seager decided to stay in Southern California. And who says money can’t buy happiness. Of those four players, only Buehler is a homegrown talent after being drafted in the first round of the 2015 draft out of Vanderbilt (though Pittsburgh did draft Buehler in the 14th round of the 2012 draft).

While the Dodgers dominate the list, the Toronto Blue Jays own the top five as two players – Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – crack the group.  Seven other teams also have two players show up in Tier 1.

So, let’s see who they are and get to the 25 top dynasty keepers.

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Baseball is back!

After months of shaking our heads and gnashing our teeth, the stars and the planets finally aligned, allowing the owners to begrudgingly open their wallets and end the lockout. We have to wait a little longer for the season to start, but Opening Day is less than a month away and we will still get to have a full 162-game season.

All is right with the world now (except for everything else that is going wrong with the world right now. But let’s not worry about that. We’re here to talk baseball!)

So now what?

Perhaps the league(s) you play in were on hold during the strikeout just as the players were. Just as MLB free agents are scrambling to find jobs with a team, you may now be scrambling to get ready for your upcoming draft. But don’t fret, you’ve been (hopefully) getting your draft strategy secured and trying to figure out who should go where in every round.

The thing about rankings…

When it comes to ranking anything, there is always a bias. Grey may not like Jack Flaherty (Fantasy Outlook For 2022) as much as I do, but since these are my rankings, I am right and he is wrong. My friend last year said I reached for Robbie Ray. Guess who had the last laugh. My rankings also reflect my bias in that I like hitters more and young players more than old players as I want to build a team that will win for years. But you may want to load up on the top veteran players on the board and then try to snag up-and-coming youngsters on the backend of the draft.

That is a valid approach to building a dynasty team. But for now, I am assuming you are building your dynasty team from the ground up and want as many of the top, young players as possible.

So, let’s get to the rankings.

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I don’t know about you, but with no spring training going on and the Owner’s lockout not appearing to be coming to an end any time soon, thank goodness for college baseball and fantasy baseball drafts!

The college season is off to a great start as my 12-0 Texas Longhorns (Class of ’93!) are the No. 1 team and have allowed only 13 runs in the team’s first 12 games. Meanwhile, in the first of my many dynasty drafts, I was able to snag Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and George Springer. I know, I know – if you have been reading my earlier posts you know I value hitters over pitchers and young player over the older stars.

But when it comes to dynasty leagues, they are like a box of chocolates…no, that is the wrong thought. What they all are is once you get past the inaugural draft, each one takes on its own personality and learning to adjust when needed is a key tool to have in the toolbox. In the case of this league, we are in year eight. Not only do we have 40-man rosters, but we have 20-man minor league rosters. So with the top prospects gone and players like Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis not close to being available, I went for the best player on the board strategy.

Even if you are starting a new dynasty league, you have to be able to zig at times. You need to enter the draft with a game plan and stick to it as much as you can. But if an older stud player is staring you in the eyes and you know he will make your team one of the best in the league, then you take him. And if it happens again and then again, then you zig and zag and then get back to your plan.

Snagging as many young players is still a top goal, but sometimes the oldies but goodies are too good to pass up.

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Welcome back to the Top Dynasty Keepers. This week we will look at my Tier 4 group – players 100 to 76. While the 30 Major League Baseball owners are trying to be sticks in the mud as they have taken the ball and gone home, we are not locking anyone out. We are knee deep in depth charts and player lists as we prepare for our drafts.

However, before we get to the fun stuff, let’s quickly review what I believe is the best way to build a team.

When it comes to putting together your dynasty team, you have to try to stick to your formula as much as possible. Yes, there is always room to be a little flexible, but figure out what your approach is going to be heading into a draft and then stick with it. Last week I spelled out my three rules when building a dynasty team. If you don’t remember this great advice, these are my rules:

Young over old.
Draft the hitter over the pitcher.
Draft the starting pitcher ahead of the closer

Practice what you preach

So you may be wondering just how well do I follow my own rules. In my Tier 5 rankings last week, 23 of the 26 players I listed were under the age of 30. Of those 23  players, 12 of them were 25 or younger. If you are building a dynasty league team, then you have to think young. 

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When it comes to ranking the top dynasty keepers, there is no one magic formula. Do you look only at age? Do you care only about performance? The answer, of course, is it is a concoction of many factors. It’s a dash of gut instinct mixed in with past experience and a whole lot of what the eye sees. You know a good player when you see him.

When building a dynasty team, these are the rules I follow:

  • 1. Young over old. Age is often a deciding factor on who to draft.
  • 2. Draft the hitter over the pitcher.
  • 3. Draft the starting pitcher ahead of the closer.

You want to build a team that wins for years to come. I’m always thinking five years down the road. Max Scherzer is great to have on your team this year, but what about next year and certainly in 2024?

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The Major League Baseball season is down to its final week and a host of teams are still battling for spots in the postseason. And just like MLB, there are numerous fantasy leagues that will go down to the last pitch this season.

With that in mind, fantasy owners should do everything they can to secure a title. In re-draft leagues, that means discarding anyone and everyone who is not producing and picking up the hot hand. With that in mind, this week we will concentrate on some players who have been hot the last two weeks and likely available in your league.

So let’s look at the Top 25 fantasy shortstop rankings before we focus on players you should possibly target this last week of the season.

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The fantasy baseball season is winding down, and if you are like me, you are constantly looking at your phone and the live scoring. Did Jose Altuve collect that much-needed RBI? Did Ozzie Albies swipe a bag that you have to have in order to overtake your opponent in steals. These next few days and weeks are going to be nerve wracking.

Making things even worse is if you have a player go on the IL or your second baseman is currently mired in a slump. The top players aren’t just sitting there on the waiver wire to be added, so adding the right free agent could be the difference between winning the title and being the best of the losers.

Before we talk about who some of those key free agents may be, let’s look at the rankings, taking into account that they mostly reflect what they have done for the entire season. But I’ll also touch on the players outside the rankings that should be watched or added in the next few days.

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When it comes to the Top 25 rankings, I often penalize players who are on the disabled list because those players can’t help your fantasy team. But there is always an exception to the rule. The exception is Wander Franco.

Franco left Friday night’s game against Detroit with right hamstring tightness and was placed on the 10-day IL Saturday. According to manager Kevin Cash, Franco can be out two to three weeks, though he hopes it could be a quicker recovery. The injury couldn’t come at a worst time for fantasy owners as the playoffs have started or about to start, depending on the number of teams that make the playoffs in your league.

Despite the injury, I moved Franco into the top 10 in my rankings as he now sits at No. 9. He would be higher, but my rankings also take into account what players have done the entire season, and Franco has not been with the Rays the entire season. If he had been, he would be in the Tier 1 group.

Before suffering his injury, the 20-year-old Franco ripped a pitch up the middle at 107.5 mph to reach base and extend his on-base streak to 39 games. Franco is now four games shy of tying the record for for the longest on-base streak by a player 20-years-old or younger. In 62 games this season, Franco is slashing .285-.347-463 with 49 runs scored, seven homers, 36 RBI and 2 steals. In his last 25 games, his slash line is .347-.407-.571 with 27 runs scored, three home runs and 16 RBI.

Those stats are why Franco has climbed the rankings despite him now being injured. It’s plainly obvious he is one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball and by next year he will likely reside in Tier 1 all season. Now let’s see who else has climbed in the rankings or taken a tumble.

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Trying to figure out  Brandon Lowe is like a day trader trying to figure out when to buy or sell a stock. At the beginning of the season, everyone should have been selling Lowe stock. But based on past performance, they were still buying.

Once they were convinced he was a failed commodity, Lowe stock was being sold and he could be a cheap buy, but he likely cost you a lot while you held on to him. However, if you are the type of investor who plays the long game and doesn’t get caught up in the day-to-day highs and lows or if you were able to get Lowe when his price had bottomed out, then congratulations! Because right now, Lowe is carrying your team.

Throughout the season Lowe has produced home runs and RBI. Through June, he had 16 homers and 38 RBI. But he also had slash lines of .182-.301-.364 in April, .196-.312-.380 in May and .241-.337-.542 in June. Lowe also racked up 97 strikeouts in 263 at-bats – a strikeout percentage of 37 percent! But over the last two months, Lowe has been a beast at the plate. In July he slashed .288-.416-.616 with six homers, six doubles and 14 RBI in 22 games. Last month he hit nine double, nine homers and drove in 26 runs in 27 games while slashing .262-.328-.598.

Why the turnaround at the plate, at least when it comes to his slash line? The answer is pretty easy – his strikeout rate. In 180 at-bats in July and August, Lowe struck out only 48 times, a strikeout percentage of 27 percent. That is a 10 percent improvement compared to the first three months of the season. Yes, today’s game doesn’t penalize players for striking out. The easiest way to beat shifts and score runs is to just hit balls over the fence.

But putting the ball into play still matters, and Lowe is showing what happens when you put the ball in play.  In the games Lowe has played this season, Tampa Bay is 79-48, and in those 79 wins, Lowe’s slash line is .248-.366-.520 with a strikeout percentage of 30 percent and BABIP of .283. But in the games the Rays lost, his slash line is .190-.256-.430 with a strikeout percentage of 38 percent and a BABIP of .218. The Rays – and your fantasy team – are at their best when Lowe puts the ball in play.

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When you think of the top shortstops in baseball, you automatically think of Fernando Tatis Jr. first, then probably Bo Bichette, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager – when he is healthy. Perhaps we need to add two names to that list.

Perhaps it is time everyone considers Jorge Polanco and Dansby Swanson as two of baseball’s top-hitting shortstops.

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