Does anyone else have the feeling that we’ve done this before? A bit of a case of déjà vu perhaps? Don’t worry. I’m sure there’s a nice snug jacket and a comfy padded room somewhere nearby with your name on it. Hey, get away from that bouncy castle! That’s not what I meant. If you have that feeling, it’s because we have done this before. I wrote about Cubs rookie sensation Kris Bryant in this very column at practically the same exact time of year last season. The hype train gained steam during spring training and pushed his preseason ADP up into the 5th/6th round area, or essentially where Miguel Sano has been coming off of most draft boards this season. I was bullish on Bryant last year and he ended up finishing as the #30 overall player on the 2015 player rater after producing a 87/26/99/13/.275 batting line in 151 games (650 PA). Quite an impressive showing for a rookie, or a player of any experience level for that matter.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
The first major injury of the 2016 MLB season occurred last Friday as spring training was drawing to a close, when Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock fractured his right elbow sliding into home plate. Why did he decide to slide head first in a meaningless game with a previously sore elbow that kept him out of preseason action for several weeks? Does GM Dave Stewart finally wish that he could rescind his ill-conceived Shelby Miller trade and bring Ender Inciarte back into the fold? Why does it seem like I’m peeing more frequently as I get older? So many questions! However, the most relevant question in this particular situation is: who is the next man up? The most interesting in-house candidate to replace Pollock appears to be 23-year-old prospect Socrates Brito (11.3% owned; +6.1% in the past week). Brito was a candidate to steal some playing time away from Yasmany Tomas in left field, so Pollock’s injury opens up yet another potential path to playing time for the youngster. In a brief stint in MLB last season (34 PA), he managed a .303/.324/.455 triple slash and graded out well defensively, which helps his case to see some at-bats in the near future. In fantasy terms, a decent comp might be Austin Jackson. With regular playing time, a .260/10/20 type of line looks to be in his wheelhouse. There is some upside here, so he’s worth a gamble to grab and stash to see how this situation plays out.
Here are a couple of other interesting adds/drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Fret not, Razzball nation. The wait is almost over. As of today, we’re now just three short days away before the official start of the MLB regular season. Pretty soon, you won’t be refreshing your fantasy team’s live stats page and wondering why DeShields hasn’t stolen a base yet. They’re coming! In the meantime, let’s take a quick look at one of the most surprising rookies from the 2015 season, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the bear/bull series, here’s the deal. Each week, I’ll be highlighting a different fantasy-relevant player and creating a framework of where that player is trending in fantasy terms. After some background analysis, number crunching, and sometimes even a player comp or two, I’ll reveal whether I’m bearish (pessimistic) or bullish (optimistic) on the near future of the player in question. So essentially a one player buy/sell. Dig it? Awesome. Now let’s take a look at this week’s player under the microscope…
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One Man’s Trash: The NeverEnding Story
March 29, 2016 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 91 Commentsby: Big Magoo
It’s been a long offseason, but now that we’re less than a week away from the start of the 2016 MLB regular season, it’s time to dust off the trash/treasure column and take a look at a few of the players who have made fantasy owners take notice in recent weeks. For those of you who are unfamiliar with this series, the concept is pretty straightforward: identify a few of the players who have experienced the largest change in ownership percentage over the previous week and determine which of these players are deserving of their sudden gains or declines respectively. The players who I believe carry limited value moving forward will be deemed TRASH while the potential waiver wire gems will have the coveted TREASURE label bestowed upon them. Dig it? Cool. Now let’s take a look at some of the buzzy Spring Training names as Opening Day approaches…
Please, blog, may I have some more? A Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Checklist
March 24, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft | 82 Commentsby: Big Magoo
Howdy Razzballero! Starting next week we’ll dive right into the weekly regular season content (trash/treasure and bear/bull), but I’d like to take this opportunity (since we’re in the thick of draft season) to share a few thoughts on how to approach your fantasy baseball draft. I’ve made my share of mistakes on draft day over the years, and I’d like to share some of the lessons that I’ve (hopefully) learned from those mistakes with you today. Think of me as the guinea pig who’s the first one to cross the explosive pond, and then you swoop in like John Rambo to save the day. Only we’re talking about fantasy baseball, so it’s even MORE IMPORTANT! Sorry, too much coffee. But hopefully you’ll find one or two of these tips to be helpful when preparing for your drafts.
Here are a few things to consider as your draft day approaches:
Please, blog, may I have some more? The Numbers Game: How To Evaluate Pitchers
March 22, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft | 54 Commentsby: Big Magoo
Last week, we looked at a few metrics that I like to use when evaluating hitters for fantasy baseball. This week, it’s time to take a look at some of the key pitcher stats that are useful for projecting future performance. If you’re a fantasy nut like me and have several more drafts lined up over the next thirteen days (six more for me, to be exact), it’s probably a good idea to dispense with the jibber jabber and get to it!
With that in mind, here are some things that I look for when evaluating pitchers for fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more? The Numbers Game: How To Evaluate Hitters
March 19, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft | 92 Commentsby: Big Magoo
If you visit the comments section on a regular basis, you’re probably familiar with some of the most common questions that are posted there. “Who should I draft – player X or player Y?” “Why do you have player X ranked ahead of player Y?” “Why do you love/hate player X so much? He was great/awful last season!” The answers to these questions will vary depending on who you ask. Grey will tell you to avoid players in their 30s and draft Delino DeShields at all costs. “Take DeShields.” “But I need a pitcher…” “DeShields!” Rudy will direct you to his dollar values and remind you why positional scarcity is a myth. Sky would probably advise you to load up on power. Jay might extoll the virtues of Cory Spangenberg. While all of these opinions have merit, the question is: whose opinion should you value the most? The answer is… yours!
In this article, I’ll be sharing some of the basic, but important, things that I look for when evaluating hitters for fantasy baseball. I’ll provide brief explanations of the specific things that I focus on as well as why I believe these things are significant in the evaluation process. Hopefully, you’ll be able to use one or two of these tips to improve your own player evaluations.
Without further ado, here are some of the things that I look for when evaluating hitters for fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?It’s been a helluva busy morning. Your boss is on your case to get that report in by the end of the day. You only got to spend five minutes checking out Razzball today. Work sucks. Thankfully, it’s lunchtime, and just in the nick of time too. You’re famished. You’re on the clock though. Don’t have a whole lot of time to dick around and enjoy a sit down meal. You need to grab something quickly. Panera’s out. Look at that ridiculous line. Is there a “you pick three” special today or something? Chick-fil-A and Chipotle are out too. It seems like everyone is eating out today. But there are only four cars in the McDonald’s drive through. Looks like it’s the McHeat lamp special for you today! Cheap, quick, and somewhat edible. Not the worst thing in the world, but not exactly what you were looking for either. More of a “plan D” than anything else.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Interesting Stats and Trends – 2016 Pitcher Edition
February 25, 2016 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 32 Commentsby: Big Magoo
A few weeks ago, we looked at some interesting hitter stats over the last few years. If you didn’t find the stats and trends that were highlighted in that article to be particularly interesting, at least you might have been mildly amused by the inclusion of names such as Jack Cust, Candy Nelson, and Silver Flint. Today, it’s the pitchers’ turn. Perhaps I can find an excuse to reference Cannonball Titcomb in this post. There’s only one way to find out! (spoiler alert: he won’t be mentioned again)
Just as I did in the hitter edition of this series, I’ll be listing various statistics with little to no analysis so that you can be the judge of how relevant each statistic and/or trend is in regards to the 2016 season. This article focuses on pitchers only, and the stats that will be highlighted range from the basic (strikeouts, win-loss record, innings pitched, ERA, WHIP) to the slightly more advanced (K/BB ratio, LOB%, batted ball profile, SwStr%).
Let’s get to it. Here are some interesting pitcher stats and trends to consider entering the 2016 fantasy baseball season:
Please, blog, may I have some more? Under the Greydar: Erasmo Ramirez
February 16, 2016 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 47 Commentsby: Big Magoo
The late rounds of most fantasy baseball drafts are typically filled with mediocre veterans and low percentage lottery tickets. “Maybe Jered Weaver has another sub-4.5 ERA season left in his arm. Is Max Kepler likely to be called up before the all-star break?” That’s you weighing your options in the last round of your draft. Pretty uninspiring, aren’t they? There is another group of players that is more likely to have an immediate impact on your fake team during the upcoming season – the post-hype players. These are the guys who showed promise at one point in their careers but lost some their shine due to underperformance or durability issues. Erasmo Ramirez is the type of player who falls into this group.
When trying to identify potentially undervalued starting pitchers, there are a few key things that I always look for. Notice that I specified undervalued players, since the hard-throwing, high strikeout artists (Syndergaard, Harvey, Sale, Strasburg, etc.) and the young “sleeper” types who are generally perceived to have high ceilings (Walker, McCullers, Rodon, Iglesias, etc.) don’t necessarily fit that description. So if velocity and K-rate are de-prioritized, what’s left to focus on?
There are a few other traits/skills that are worth emphasizing as far as starting pitchers are concerned. These include the abilities to:
Please, blog, may I have some more? 2016 NFBC Expert Mock Draft, Recap
February 9, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft | 83 Commentsby: Big Magoo
Howdy Razzballero! Razzballians? Did we ever come to a consensus on a term to identify the loyal followers of this great site? *checks glossary* Hmmm… don’t see one. I do see the term DLzebub though. That one isn’t used nearly enough. He pays me a visit at least a half a dozen times each season. I hate that guy! But it’s a great term and it probably should be used more often, just hopefully not when analyzing the roster that I recently assembled in an industry mock draft that took place on Wed., Feb. 3rd at Couchmanagers.com (smooth transition, eh?).
The format that was used for this draft was a standard 15 team NFBC format, with no bench spots being the only major difference. The starting positions used were 2 catchers, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5 outfielders, CI, MI, Util, and 9 pitchers (any combination of starters and relievers). You can check out the results of the entire draft here.
I drew the #11 pick, and my strategy from that position was simple:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last week, we looked at Lucas Duda and determined that he might be a player who is being slightly undervalued by the fantasy baseball community entering the 2016 season. This week, I’d like to put Neil Walker under the microscope. You might be thinking, “Neil Walker? He’s as boring as a Ben Stein lecture. Are you a Mets fanboy or something?” That’s a fair question. Maybe that World Series run caused me to hop on the bandwagon. Or maybe all of the hip hop talk in the comments this offseason has me reminiscing about Rakim talking about his queens from Queens. I’m not really sure.
Please, blog, may I have some more?