Welcome back for another edition of Analytics Anonymous. First of all, thanks to everyone who took part in our trivia challenge last time out. There were a number of great guesses and three of you picked the right player – Kyle Tucker. I’ll put your baseball knowledge to the test again later this season but not today.
I’ve been spending a lot of time recently looking over hitting statistics so let’s get back on the bump. Pitchers have taken a beating all season but there has been some positive stories as well, albeit just a few. Veteran pitchers like Justin Verlander and Walker Buehler are back and even Mad Max is coming soon. These are providing a nice boost for many fantasy owners.
Another segment of pitchers that have provided a nice boost are the bumper crop of rookie pitchers. In fact, there are about 10 “rookie” pitchers, in my opinion, that should be discussed right now in early Rookie of the Year balloting. We’ll cover them here today. I say “rookie” because a couple of these pitchers are not new to the highest levels of baseball but are new to MLB. You know who I’m talking about.
For now, let’s sit back and enjoy some positive pitcher news as we delve into these “rookie” hurlers.
Established SPs
When I say, “established SPs” I’m referring to pitchers who already have 10 or more games started this season. This list includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Luis Gil, Jared Jones, and Shota Imanaga.
Let’s start with some of the basic stats:
Note: Those highlighted in GREEN are considered elite.
What have we learned here? Well, all four SPs generate a high number of Ks, and at the same time, three of the four limit BBs (those are some impressive K/BB rates). Of the four SPs, Luis Gil is making it harder on himself with the higher BB%. He’s been successful by limiting the damage, as shown by his very low BABIP and ERA. Although not depicted in the table, Gil also leads the group in LOB% (84.2%) and induces the highest soft contact (21.5%). Will all that continue?
The numbers suggest “no” to that one. In fact, each of the four are pitching above their skis at the moment and the underlying numbers suggest all four will see a correction in their ERAs – with Gil probably affected most.
Let’s focus a few minutes on SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA). Like the FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and xFIP, SIERA attempts to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher. Unlike the FIP, SIERA attempts to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. As FanGraphs puts it, “SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Here’s how pitchers have been rated in this category:
Looking at SIERA, Yamamoto is the clear front-runner and only SP in the group with an “EXCELLENT” rating in this category. He’s pitching close to his expected numbers so if he can reduce that 0.310 BABIP moving forward, he’ll likely pull ahead of his friends here.
Before we move on to the next group of rookies, let’s take a quick look at the Statcast data for these four SPs.
Note: the table above ranks each of the four pitchers against the 341 pitchers who have 20+ IP this season – to allow for direct comparison with the other names discussed below.
Since we’re talking about “established SPs” here, I also ranked each of the four pitchers against the other 73 SPs who have amassed 60+ IP this season. Similar to the trends we see in the table above, Luis Gil scores the best through all the Statcast categories, buoyed by having the top ranking at limiting HardHit%. He also has a strong ranking in Barrel% as well (19 of 73), further justifying the statement before that he’s limiting damage of his higher BB%.
Other notable findings here is that Yamamoto is keeping batted balls down (LA is ranked 11 of 73) and that tracks with his over 47% GB%. However, Imanaga has one of the highest LA of all 73 SPs (67 of 73), as well as maxEV (55 of 73) and HardHit% (51 of 73). This doesn’t bode well during the summer months when the wind is blowing at Wrigley. Jared Jones is mid-pack in almost every Statcast category, with the exception of placing 16 of 73 in limiting maxEV.
SPs on the Rise
Looking at SPs on the rise, we’ll focus on these four rookies: Spencer Arrighetti, Mitch Spence, Robert Gasser, and of course, Paul Skenes. Here are the same tables for these four:
Once these four SPs build up their IPs, some of these numbers, especially K%, should normalize somewhat. Certainly, Paul Skenes will be the name in this group most will be following closely but do yourself a favor and keep an eye on Robert Gasser as well. Remember, those Statcast numbers are his ranks across 341 other pitchers (RPs included). Quite impressive! Unfortunately, and par for the course in 2024, he’s dealing with an elbow injury and the latest news is he’s seeking a second opinion on his left flexor strain.
Pen Power
RPs rarely get the love they deserve, especially during award season, so I’ll spend a few minutes on a pair of rookie RPs that are turning heads.
Mason Miller has emerged as one of the brightest young arms and there’s plenty of debate on him staying in Oakland throughout the season. There’s also some debate on the merits of stretching him out to become a starter. Look at those K% numbers and the ratios. Certainly, those wouldn’t translate equally as a SP, but one can imagine he’d probably get as much love as Paul Skenes if he did. Either way, he should remain in the Rookie of the Year race if he keeps his performance up.
Cade Smith is the other RP I include in this analysis. A 37% K% as a rookie is nothing to sneeze at. He’s pitching primarily in the 6th and 7th innings but I suspect he’ll start inching his way into more high leverage positions here soon. His xERA/xFIP suggests what we’re seeing may not last much longer though, so this is one to keep an eye on.
Summary
From a P perspective, it looks to me like Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the inside track to beat out the bats for the NL Rookie of the Year. However, I expect Paul Skenes to push the envelope if he stays healthy.
On the AL side, Mason Miller will probably lead the pack of arms but I’m not betting on a RP from Oakland to win the Rookie of the Year. If they converted him to a SP, then we can talk.
What do you think? Any other pitchers we need to consider for the top Rookie award? If so, drop their name (and why) in the comments below.
Until next time, my friends.
