We all know sand is annoying. I don’t like sand. It’s coarse and rough and irritating… and it gets everywhere. These are just basic facts people. Like how the Earth is round and how face masks help prevent the spread of COVID. But strangely enough, my views on sand don’t quite line up with my views on Sandy Alcantara. I guess I should eventually find out his level of sandiness, but just focusing on that may not be helpful in a fantasy baseball context. While I’m always willing to be avant-garde with my analysis, we’ll put aside what may be controversial sand views on my part and concentrate on the fact that this once young arm who was destined to be a two-pitch reliever has gone on to start 69 out of 77 games pitched, and done so in an above-average fashion, much like my love-making! What do I make of this and what should you make of this are questions I will try to answer after the jump!
Only garnering 42.1 innings in his first two seasons, 2017 with the Cardinals and then 2018 to the Marlins served as sort of confirmation that perhaps Alcantara was destined to be just a middling bullpen piece. After all, even though he started 6 out of 6 games pitched total in 2018, the effort was slightly concerning with a high BB/9 of 6.09 with a 4.75 FIP. But 2019 was when things started looking up. After 32 starts and 197.1 innings pitched, the most in his short career thus far, Alcantara was able to lower his BB/9 to 3.69 with a serviceable 7.94 K/9 with a very respectable 1.05 HR/9 rate. Granted, his ERA stood at an okayish 3.88, but his high FIP of 4.55 still remained a concern. But then something started to happen.
And that something was more strikeouts, more groundballs, and well, here we are. During the shortened 2020 season, he was able to raise his K/9 to 8.04, lower his BB/9 even further to 2.70, and his groundball percentage went from 44.6 in 2019 to 49.1. And of course, his main ratios responded, with both his career lower ERA of 3.00, and more importantly, a very respectable FIP of 3.72. And yes, 2020 shall not be considered a season to depend on for obvious reasons, we’ve discussed that a lot. I mean, not you and me personally. I’ve written, you’ve read, etc. But I have to say, now that we are starting to wind down the 2021 season, this year has only proven that 2020 was a precursor to what was to come, not an anomaly.
In 143.1 innings pitched as of this writing, someone with the word sand in their name has been able to again produce a 8+ K/9 and his BB/9 is still getting lower, to the tune of 2.70. Short tune if you ask me. Probably needs more music too. His HR/9 is still under one, and the groundballs keep going up, this season with a gaudy 52.9% clip. And while his ERA has risen to 3.52, which is more than acceptable, his FIP remains in a stable place at 3.80 so far this year. With 128 strikeouts in 143.1 innings combined with a very strong propensity to keep the ball on the ground and in most cases, in the park, it begs the ultimate conclusion: Sandy Alcantara is a starting pitcher and a pretty good one at that.
If you look at his underlying numbers, everything looks supportive to his production as well. His O-Swing, Z-Swing, and just straight up Swing% is rising and are all sitting at career highs this year, he’s throwing more in the zone, and getting more swinging strikes with both a rising SwStr% and lowering Z-Contact%. All of this just tells me his stuff is getting better and filthy as time goes on. That’s also seen in his rising fastball velocity throwing on average 95.7 MPH back in 2018 and now hitting 98.0 MPH.
Far be it for me to assume he’s not a reliever this year, I think we could have come to that conclusion a few years ago, but after getting an in-depth look, there might be something special here. It’s fun to think about the growth shown so far, and just as long as his change-up remains above-average and he continues to throw his Slider and Curveball with the same effectiveness, I think we might see something special down the line. But for right now, he’s everything you want to be. A starter who can strike batters out, keep the ball on the ground, and still has a lot of room to grow. Alcan’tara? No way, Alcanara is all that I see.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who is apparently a big fan of Disney’s Loki and consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him on Twitter @jaywrong.
