Even with an average-at-best fastball (90-ish MPH), Aaron Nola had a 3.59 ERA in 77 2/3 IP last year on the Phillies. This is the first bit of good news for the Phils in a while. The bad news first started in 2012 and it hasn’t let up. The bad news began when Ruben Amaro Jr. read an eHow article titled, “How To Be A MLB GM,” that was authored by Jim Bowden. “You’re saying I can sign Michael Young and no one will stop me. Escuchame, this is bueno.” “Someone take the “Out of Order” sign off of the bathroom, we just got a brand-new Ibanez.” “This GM business is fine and all, but, damn, if I could only be a 1st base coach.” Back to present day, and Nola’s average-at-best fastball doesn’t matter. It matters about as much as the fact that Kanye thinks George W. Bush doesn’t care about Nola. (Oddly enough, Nola went to college in Louisiana. Weird, right? Speaking of which, shouldn’t weird be spelled wierd? Seems odd.) What matters for Nola is his pinpoint control. This is where his bread is buttered. This is where his steak gets Salisburied. This is where his hot dog does bikram yoga. As I’ve mentioned many times before, guys that throw fast that are wild, have huge upside and downside. Guys like Nola that have solid control don’t have the ceiling as those fastwinders, but they also don’t have a basement with a tied-up gimp. At worst, their basement has a pool table with some rips on the felt. Anyway, what can we expect from Aaron Nola for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
If Nola had thrown enough innings to qualify last year, he would’ve been in the top thirty for all of baseball in walk rate (2.2). I know, top thirty doesn’t exactly turn the front of your pants into a parasail, but he’s 22 years old. With that knowledge and a free-fall from your roof, you should be able to catch some air in your pants. For players that are 22 years old and younger, he would’ve ranked third for walk rate. The first two? Noah Syndergaard and Taijuan Walker, two guys that I love. Now, your pants-sail should be ballooning like the male ballet dancer in the movie, Modern Problems. Since 2010, there were 13 pitchers that were 22 years old or younger and had a season of a 2.2 BB/9 with at least 70 IP. Only 13 pitchers. Bumgarner is on that list three times, Gerrit Cole, Julio Teheran (when he was good), Porcello, Brett Anderson, Blake Beavan, Alex Sanabia, Walker, Syndergaard and Patrick Corbin. For the most part that list is rainbow sprinkles. Sure, there’s a couple wonky names on this list, but if you throw out the guys that had a K-rate under 7 (Sanabia, Anderson, Beavan, Porcello), the list gets a lot prettier. Know why? I’ve already told you! Because when a guy controls his pitches, things can only go so pear-shaped. More often than not, a guy controls his pitches and it means he also limits the damage. These guys are pitchers, not just throwers. Bumgarner is unrealistic to compare Nola to, but Teheran’s 8+ K/9, 3.20 ERA season in 2014, doesn’t seem that far off from the realm of possibility. For where he’s going to be drafted, that’s going to be an absolute steal. For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 9-12/3.42/1.18/163 in 188 IP with upside. Oh, and 2016 rankings start on Monday so ramp up your heart rate.
