I have many fond memories of playing Little League. I made an All-Star team and played in Dodgers Stadium against a team from China. Or Taiwan. I forget.
Looking back on it, I did lead the league in Little League home runs (bunt, overthrow at first, run to second, make my way to third, overthrow at third, HOME RUN!!!), but I’m beginning to think me being Asian had something to do with the selection. Well, whatevers. I don’t care! I made an All-Star team and played in Dodgers Stadium! Even though I was scared shitless of getting hit, which is why I started bunting in the first place. Or that I still have nightmares of the six-foot kid who was literally right in my grill when he released the ball. But the one memory that is forever etched into my brain is the, “Hey, batter batter. Suwiiiiiiiiing, batter batter.” We’d always yell that from the dugout. To almost every batter because most Little League hitters suck. But when the true boppers were at the plate:
Jack Suwinski of the Pittsburgh Pirates is a bopper, but he has serious whiff issues. Suwiiiiiiii-ng-batter-batter-nski. But I’m enamored with him this season. Here’s why:
Suwinski is 25 years old, 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 15th round of the 2016 MLB draft. In five years, he made it to Double-A before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Adam Frazier deal. In 2022, he played 31 games in Triple-A before notching 106 games with the big club. Last season, he played in 144 games and accrued 534 plate appearances.
Throughout his minor league career, the walk rate has always been high. But so were the strikeout rates. The power didn’t manifest until 2021 when he had a .282 ISO in Double-A. In Triple-A the following year, he had an 8.5% walk rate, 37.7% strikeout rate and .197 ISO. With the big club, the walk rate was 11%, the strikeout rate was 30.6% and the ISO was .209. In a full season with the Pirates, the walk rate was 14%, the strikeout rate was 32.2% and ISO was .230.
That strikeout rate is gross for sure, as it was the second-worst mark in MLB last season. The rest of it, though, ain’t bad, yo.
Now for the grossierness. I don’t care if that’s not a word. This is my blurb. The batting average was .202 and .224. Steamer has him projected to hit .226.
Breaking down his month-to-month averages, June and August were absolutely abysmal, as he posted .185 and .130 marks in 82 and 95 plate appearances respectively. May wasn’t much better at .207 in 95 plate appearances. In April, though, he batted .279 in 84 PAs, July was .246 in 75 PAs and September was a robust .291 in 99 PAs.
Everyone goes through streaks, but Suwinski’s valleys are more pronounced than most. One thing that could help is sitting against lefties, as he batted only .200 against them in 132 PAs. Roster Resource currently has Suwinski as a platoon bat with Connor Joe being the likely partner. The loss of volume hurts for sure, but Steamer still has him projected for 476 PAs.
Another positive thing for Suwinski is that he now has a season and a half of MLB experience under his belt. He’s gone through cold and hot streaks. He’s adjusted to pitchers after they adjusted to him. He’s still only 25 years old, so further development could be in the offering. During his first full season, he improved the walk rate, average and max exit velocities, launch angle, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
What gets me most excited, though, is that both the chase and swinging strike rates decreased. And those levels weren’t bad to begin with. He went from 27.4% to 22% in chase rate and 11.7% to 10.9% in swinging strike rate. The chase rate was the sixth-best in MLB last season.
Oh, he also has some wheels. He stole 13 bases last season and he’s in the 81st percentile for sprint speed according to Savant.
About that Savant page, there’s a lot of dark red for Suwinski. 94th percentile in walk rate. 96% in chase rate. 94% in barrel rate.
So, the strikeout rate is abysmal, but everything else is pretty, pretty good. How good?
Last season, there were only 15 players with an ISO above .200 with a walk rate above 10%.
- Shohei Ohtani
- Matt Olson
- Kyle Schwarber
- Mookie Betts
- Max Muncy
- Adolis Garcia
- Jorge Soler
- Ronald Acuna
- Juan Soto
- Isaac Paredes
- Kyle Tucker
- Jack Suwinski
- Ketel Marte
- Bryce Harper
- Seiya Suzuki
Only one of those player had an average exit velocity below 90 mph (Isaac Paredes).
Two had a barrel rate below 10% (Ketel Marte and Paredes).
Out of that group, only six had a chase rate below 25% (Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki, Suwinski, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts).
Eight had a swinging strike rate of 10% or lower (Suwinski, Ronald Acuna, Marte, Paredes, Suzuki, Kyle Tucker, Soto, and Betts).
Seven stole over 10 bases (Acuna, Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, Betts, Suwinski, Soto, and Bryce Harper).
So the players last season with at least a .200 ISO, 10% walk rate, over 90 mph EV, over 10% barrel rate, under 25% chase rate, 10% or under swinging strike rate and double-digit stolen bases were Juan Soto, Mookie Betts and Jack Suwinski.
There are obvious warts with Suwinski, but he’s being drafted with the 238th overall pick on average. He’s projected to hit fifth in the lineup and Steamer has him for 22 home runs, 60 runs, 64 RBI, and eight stolen bases. And that’s without much improvement baked in. The platoon dampers any hope for ceiling but there is room for growth. In addition, the acquisition cost is nice for a potential 20/10 player that, if he bombs, it won’t hurt much. Do you know how many players went 20/10 last season? 34. As for the average drain, hopefully, you built a nice foundation to buttress a player like this.
