People love Michael Bourn. Color me confused. I am far and away the lowest on Michael Bourn out of every ‘pert both sides of the Mississippi and Canada, unless the Mississippi runs through Canada and that’s being redundant; I have no idea. Last year, he had more plate appearances than Prince Fielder, Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval combined (talking off the diamond plate appearances, which is obviously much higher than on the field ones for those three). Bourn’s PAs numbered 722 and he would need that to repeat his 60 steals from last year. That was the 4th highest plate appearances in the majors last year. To count on 722 plate appearances again is a horn bet. I have his projections down for 90/2/40/.280/50. That seems more than fair. If he pulls a hammy, then his value, which is all tied up in his legs like any good piece of chicken, is kaput. But we’re going to assume he does steal 50 bases and no witchcraft I do will work. So why then is Michael Bourn overrated for 2012 fantasy baseball?
SAGNOF! You knew it was coming. I knew it was coming. It was only a matter of time. Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face. Today, we’re talking about the steals side of the equation. What kind of face do steals have? No face. Let’s look at the ZiPS projections for one player: In 489 plate appearances, 64/1/24/.273 with 44 steals. This player is none other than Tony Campana. That’s the Tony “I’m Not Drafted In Any League” Campana. Want another one? Here’s a guy’s 2011 numbers: 69/8/54/.264/49. That’s Coco Crisp. He’s being drafted about 20 outfielders after Bourn on average. Not to mention, how many homers are you getting from the rest of your team to put Bourn on your team as your first outfielder? You need 20 homers per player in 12 team leagues. Don’t think about drafting a Bonifacio at middle infield or any other steals-only player, because then you’re doomed to be power light. Finally, I’ll lay on you a credo that’s not a credo but more of a metaphor. This has been said ad nauseam on this site, but here’s it one more time. (If you’re reading this on a roller coaster, you may barf.) You can always trade closers. There’s only so many of them in the league at any given time and people will lose one and need another one. On the other hand, speedsters are like new cars. They’re pricey and lose their value the minute you drive them off the lot. Bourn’s on some expert lists around Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence or Nelson Cruz. Seriously, try to draft Bourn, then trade him for one of those other outfielders right after the draft. You’ll be having buyer’s remorse almost immediately.
