Back in 2012, Byron Buxton was the Louis Vuitton of baseball, as he was rated the best prospect in all the land. After the 2013 minor league season, Buxton proved that he wasn’t some Chinese knock off, as he was named Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year. Things were going swimmingly until he got his first taste of big league experience in 2015. All good. Mike Trout struggled his first time too. After spending some time in Triple-A the following season, he got another shot, when he continued to be overmatched. After a brief stint in Triple-A again to start 2017, Buxton got another call up. Wouldn’t you know? He continued to struggle. But….there’s always a but.
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Since August 1st, Buxton is batting .328/.371/.563 with three home runs, two triple, two doubles, 13 runs scored, 11 RBI, and six stolen bases. The strikeout rate has been 23.3% and the ISO .234. The BABIP is an astronomical .400, though. So, what’s the deal?
I was excited about Buxton when he was coming up through the minors. How could you not be entranced by a player that could contribute across the board? But I soured on him after watching him flail away against major league pitching. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Stephen King added another line by saying, “Fool me three times, shame on both of us.“Well, people have also said that the third time is a charm. Is it any coincidence that this is Buxton’s third year in the bigs? There are no coincidences. Don’t you know that we live in the matrix. There are only glitches.
Anyways, Buxton has shown some very encouraging things lately. The swinging strike rate has been 10.5%. That number was 15% last season. The contact rates are all up around 5%.
Now for the bad. He’s swinging at 34.3% of pitches outside the zone, but he’s been able to make contact on those pitches at a 10% higher rate than in the past. That’s not sustainable and ties into the sky-high BABIP, so some negative regression is going to come.
As Grey mentioned in Friday’s Buy/Sell, Buxton has been notoriously good in the second half of seasons so that we don’t forget about him for next year. Here’s the thing, though. He’s still only 23 years old. Will he be the next Melvin Upton? A good possibility but it’s still within the range of outcomes that he takes it to the next level.
I trade stocks. Not as actively now because I’m taking care of two kids, but I still manage a long-term account. I have two favorite scenarios on when to buy. The first is when a stock has been languishing in a range and shows signs of breaking out. There has to be some tangible reason for a breakout though. I like getting in because so many people are betting against it. They’ve made money in the past by fading that spot that the have a Pavlonian response to sell. When the stock breaks out, they have to go and chase their shares back. In addition, many get emotional because they fear missing out, the price goes even higher. Warren Buffet was great at buying low and selling high, but he was always great at buying high and selling higher. The other scenario is when a stock gets sold to basement levels. I like to wait for the stock to settle then get in when a floor has been set and there are signs of an uptick. I know the risk and it’s all upside from there.
The situation with Buxton reminds me of both scenarios. He’s been languishing in this range for a few years and everytime he showed promise, it worked out if you sold. Buxton is also at basement levels in regards to price. On the Player Rater, he’s the 79th outfielder. Razzballers are a savvy group, so he’s owned in 92% of leagues, but his ownership percentage is only at 39.7% over at ESPN, even with a 26.7% increase.
The risk/reward is very favorable with Buxton right now. In addition, with the injury to Miguel Sano he’s going to be batting third. The range of outcomes is huge, as he can fall on his face again, but there’s also the possibility that he thrives and becomes the player that everyone fell in love with. He was a Louis Vuitton after all.
VERDICT
