Major League Baseball has now played about 19 of 26 weeks this season, which means we have a large statistical basis, but not a whole season, to evaluate players for our fantasy baseball squads. With the trade deadline past and teams looking to call up prospects to see what they have next year, or plan for the playoffs, who have been some of the more interesting risers and fallers?
In the aggregate, 19 weeks of production is not a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices. As the fantasy baseball playoffs loom, these choices become more and more important.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the first 19 weeks of games. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Roster percentages (from Yahoo) and stats include all games finished by August 12th.
MLB Risers
Randy Arozarena (OF), Seattle Mariners
There are currently four players in MLB who have at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2025. Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Pete Crow-Armstrong are three, and – you guessed it – Randy Arozarena is the last. With exactly 23 home runs and 23 stolen bases, Arozarena has entered an elite group this season and done so very quietly.
His batting average has also improved from past seasons. He hit .219 last season with a .388 slugging percentage, but now that is up to .250 and a .468 slugging percentage. He is also in the range where he could set career-highs in runs, stolen bases, home runs, and RBI. Arozarena has benefited from the bats that arrived at the trade deadline, and his game has picked up since then.
The secret this year has been a massive increase in his barrel rate from 2024. Compared to the 8.4% from 2024, his barrel rate in 2025 is up by a margin of 50% (12.8%). That hard-hit ability is generating line drives and fly balls, which has caused his ground ball rate to fall back to better levels than when it was too high the last two seasons.
Bo Bichette (SS), Toronto Blue Jays
Charles Dickens couldn’t have told a better story. It’s been a tale of two seasons for Bo Bichette, comparing 2024 and 2025. After a disastrous campaign that saw him hit just .225/.277/.322 in 81 games, Bichette is up to .297/.337/.468 this season, and he now leads all of Major League Baseball in hits. Last year, his slugging percentage would have been the worst in the game if he qualified. This season, he is in the top 45 and tied with players like Rafael Devers and Corey Seager. Health, improved approach, and a focus on hard contact have turned his offense around.
In some sense, we will probably always be chasing the 29 home runs and 25 stolen bases from Bichette in 2021 when he was a 23-year-old. But he is on pace for 25 home runs and perhaps 10 steals right now, and striking out less than ever before (15%). All of his underlying metrics have improved from his disastrous 2024 campaign, and the arrow is pointing clearly up for Bichette the rest of the season as the Blue Jays’ offense starts to improve.
This might never be a player who steals 25 bases again, but he is putting together a complete offensive package that has become fantasy gold in 2025.
Nick Pivetta (SP), San Diego Padres
Somebody needs to tell the Vegas oddsmakers that Nick Pivetta is having a career year and that he should be in the Cy Young conversation. He is currently +15000 to win the award this year (so, not even close), behind pitchers like Matt Boyd and Robbie Ray. Pivetta might be having the quietest elite year by a pitcher in a long time, and it’s part of the reason the Padres tied the Dodgers for first in the NL West this week.
As of Monday night, Pivetta was 11-4 with a 2.94 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 139 strikeouts in 134 innings pitched. Coming off some nagging injuries in 2024, Pivetta signed very late in the offseason with San Diego, but his patience paid off. The combination of the friendly park, the defense behind him, and an elite offense has helped propel Pivetta’s career year.
His best year before 2025 was 2023, when he was 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA. He has lost a little bit of strikeout rate since that season, but has made up for it with fewer walks, fewer home runs, and better command. He won’t beat out Paul Skenes or Zach Wheeler for a Cy Young award, but he deserves immense credit for this season.
MLB Fallers
Jackson Merrill (OF), San Diego Padres
You will be hard-pressed to find a bigger difference between Jackson Merrill’s ADP in spring draft season (pick 35, on average) and his place on the Razzball Player Rater right now. Merrill is currently listed as the 324th best player this year, as he has struggled on the field and had trouble staying active with a couple of IL stints already taking place. Maybe he is still feeling the effects of his concussion, but he is nowhere close to the .292/.326/.500 line from his rookie season in 2024.
Currently, Merrill is only hitting .263/.322/.419 with just nine home runs and one stolen base (he had 24 home runs and 16 steals last year). Whatever happened to Merrill, it has sucked away some of his power potential. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are all down from last season, and it’s clear he isn’t right out there. The best Merrill managers can hope for is that he finds a hot streak in him and can carry it over to a much more productive 2026.
Oneil Cruz (SS/OF), Pittsburgh Pirates
With Oneil Cruz going on the concussion IL, let’s take a moment to evaluate his season. He has such awesome power, such incredible speed, but what a poor ability to hit baseballs. Oneil Cruz has seen his stock fall from a literal top-10 asset in the early days of the fantasy baseball season to one that barely has him hanging on to a .200 batting average. Cruz already has 18 home runs and 34 stolen bases this season, but imagine what kind of player he could be if he made contact and didn’t strike out 32% of the time.
Those counting stats (including 58 runs in a weak Pirates offense) are always going to have some value in fantasy baseball, but the average is now a millstone around the neck of any fantasy baseball manager who rosters Oneil Cruz. His contact rate has fallen from 71% in 2023 to 67% in 2025. His swing percentage at balls in the zone is down to 57%, four percentage points lower than in 2024.
For those of us who have followed baseball since the 1980s, this is basically like if Rob Deer stole 50 bases instead of hit 40 home runs. Cruz has so much raw talent, but there are some things on the fringes that are preventing him from belonging in the elite tier of superstars.
Logan O’Hoppe (C), Los Angeles Angels
Cal Raleigh, who smashed his 45th home run on Tuesday night, gets all the headlines at the catcher position, but Logan O’Hoppe is one of just four other catchers to have 18 home runs. But the problem is, he can’t do much else this season. His 18 home runs are the same as players like Bryce Harper and Kyle Tucker, but the rest of O’Hoppe’s profile is far, far away from similar players. He might as well be playing a different game.
Logan O’Hoppe has brought a .232 average and just 32 runs, along with those 18 home runs. His 40 RBI have him on pace for fewer than 60 this year, and he is an absolute zero in the speed department. He was even caught trying to steal recently. Why would he try that? I have no idea. The other problem for O’Hoppe this year is that his worst trait – strikeouts – has been worse than in previous years. He is striking out 31.4% of the time this year compared to just a 5.0% walk rate. His .240 expected batting average hopefully can lead to slightly more power, but most of the other metrics do not look good on O’Hoppe. This is not a profile I am looking to buy high on right now.
(And right on cue, Logan O’Hoppe drove in two runs against the Dodgers to take the lead in the eighth inning on Wednesday night as I typed this blurb. Of course.)
FYI Raleigh homered on Sunday not Tuesday. Thought I was missing 7 points in my points league when I saw your comment! Thanks for the posts.