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Throughout the annuls of history, we, as a human species have learned that it's not easy being green. While it's not easy being green, it is also not easy hitting at Safeco. Looking through the ballpark values, I can surmise that if I jumped off the roof of Safeco, I would have a hard time hitting the ground. It's well documented, the struggles of high-ceiling prospects donning a Seattle Mariners uniform. Most especially with Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, and our subject for today's post-- Dustin Ackley. Despite a strong showing at the end of last season, Smoak is the closest to becoming the next 'falling star' cautionary tale, putting him right next to the likes of Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, and Chris Brown's fist. But both Montero and Ackley still have a fair chance to reach their potential, and from what I read at TMZ the other day, Chris Brown's fist has made a sudden turnaround. At the very least, they (the players, not fist) have one more season before the grumblings become deafening, and players like Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin, and Mike Zunino start knocking on the 25-man door.

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Mon 5/19
ARI | ATH | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | STL | TB | ATL | NYY | OAK | SD | TEX | TOR | WSH
This top 20 1st basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball goes to about forty-two. Every time I thought I was out, I looked at another 1st baseman that pulled me back in. Unlike any other position, there's a few guys that can give you some huge numbers, then there's about 25 players that can give you roughly the same stats. Unlike years past, I'm not going to tell you to either draft a top 1st baseman or insist you remove my name from your Trapper Keeper. We can still be BFFs without the drafting of Pujols, Fielder or Votto. For the first time in a while, any of the top 20 1st basemen (that's the actual top 20 1st basemen not the 42 or so that are on this list; shizz gets a little wonky further along the list). The first basemen position is going through a serious transition. Right now, vets like Howard, Konerko and Te(i)x could still be valuable, but they have some major question marks. Then there's guys like Trumbo, Davis or even Hosmer that have a different set of concerns. By next year, I have a feeling we'll see that the next class of 1st basemen move up while the vets continue to fade. But, for now, it's not clear. As always, for each player there's my projections and where I see tiers starting and ending. There's the position eligibility chart for 2013 fantasy baseball, and all the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings are under that linkie-ma-whosie. Anyway, here's the top 20 1st basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball:
Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America 2012 (16) | 2011 (10) | 2010 (10) | 2009 (20) | 2008 (7) 2012 Affiliate Records MLB: [64-98] NL West AAA: [75-69] Pacific Coast League – Colorado Springs AA: [75-64] Texas League — Tulsa A+: [73-67] California League – Modesto A: [88-52] South Atlantic League – Asheville A(ss): [32-44] Northwest League — Tri-City Arizona Fall League PlayersSalt River Rafters Isaiah Froneberger (LHP); Cory Riordan (RHP); Lars Davis (C); Jose Gonzalez (C); Corey Dickerson (OF); Kent Matthes (OF) Graduated Prospects Jordan Pacheco (1B); Wilin Rosario (C); Josh Rutledge (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Charlie Blackmon (OF); Drew Pomeranz (LHP); Christian Friedrich (LHP); Adam Ottavino (RHP); Rex Brothers (LHP) The Run Down It's difficult not to swoon at the fantasy upside of various bats in this Rockies system. Every hitter on this list brings a ceiling that's hard to measure based on MiLB figures, alone. That's what makes the top three guys so exciting -- their potential would be impressive in any system, but throw Coors Field into the equation, and the intrigue swells substantially. On the flip side, the arms of the Colorado system carry the stigma of being future Coors Field pitchers. Their intrigue, conversely, is shrunk by the stadium at which they're bound to play. But ballpark factors aside, Colorado has put together a farm system with plenty of depth and plenty of hope. No one here is to be ignored, so do keep an eye on these names as the 2013 season gets underway.
I just went over the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball and the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball. Most of you know how I feel about catchers. If you draft a catcher any time before the first 100 picks, you don't know how I feel about catchers. Let me freshen up your cocktail with a splash of insight. I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues. I Reggie Roby them. Molina, Pierzynski, Wilin Rosario were all in the top 5 for catchers last year. Their average draft pick was around 250 overall last year. The bottom of the top 20 for last year consisted of Napoli, McCann and Jesus Montero. Their average draft slot was around 70. It's like this every year. In 2011, Napoli and Avila were ranked second and third at the end of the year with Wieters and Posey disappointing, going into the year it was nothing like that. Catchers are unreliable to stay healthy; the job is grueling and takes its toll on offensive stats. Then, there's not much difference between, say, the fifth best catcher and nothingness. Wilin Rosario was the fifth best catcher last year. As late as July of last year, he could've been picked up off waivers in some leagues. Finally, the best catcher last year and the NL MVP was the 27th best player according to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. That's the best year you can hope from him and he was still only ranked 27th overall. You're paying a premium for a catcher, who would be the 8th best outfielder. The third best 2nd baseman. The fifth best first baseman. The fifth best 3rd baseman. Only shortstops were worst, and I say punt them too. Yes, I am saying punt the positions that are most scarce. Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-two (John Jaso? Belch.); some of you might want to know the top catchers. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Alex Avila. In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them. You can see other top 20 lists for 2013 fantasy baseball under 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. Listed along with these catchers are my 2013 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2013 fantasy baseball:
Well this pick is a little strange. After covering guys that probably won't get drafted in most regular leagues this year, I've come back to a guy going in 13th round currently in mock drafts with Kendrys Morales. I could lie to you and say I like a guy like Brandon Belt more because he's going so cheap but until he hires a professional make-up artist that makes him look 35, he's going to have a hard time staying on Bruce Bochy's good side and away from Huff's rally thong. I'm suggesting we take a look at whether or not Kendrys is a discount seeing as first base isn't all that deep. Scoff all you want but I suggested Allen Craig to you last year when he was merely a pipe dream. Yes, that's a picture of Jay 'Bones' Buhner and yes the writer calls himself ONC. Well that was me before I went Red Dragon on y'all and 'transformed'. You see, I'm that dude Sky from the fantasy football side of the Razzball world but I cut my teeth on the baseball side by dropping helpful preseason nuggets to you last year and one of which is the afore mentioned Craig. The same Craig who's now going 7th in mock drafts over at MDC amongst first basemen. For such a power-heavy position, doesn't 22 HRs in 514 PAs scare you a little with where he's going? Exactly. So with that, I think it's time we take a look at why you might be paying less for more with Morales.
This is one of the hardest posts to write all year. There's so many different ways the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball could go. I almost wrote a top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball and just made the tenth ranked guy a ten way tie with these guys and washed my hands of this post entirely. Isn't David Wright as risky as Longoria but Wright didn't even make the top 20? Then Beltre's low with seemingly no risk? Where's the pitchers? Posey's not ranked? You know the NL MVP?! What gives, GA? McCutchen was crazy high and now Kemp is crazy low! Was I taking meds when I wrote this? Was I not taking my meds?! There's a lot of questions to be answered as we continue our 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. There are not as many guarantees as I'd like. Verlander seems more safe than any of these hitters, but you can find so much pitching later, he didn't even make the top 20. Thankfully, as VinWins's data about our leagues shows, a 2nd round pick that you Mr. Bungle doesn't spell doom. Last year, a Cano second round pick was solid and you finished around sixth out of 12 teams. An Adrian Gonzalez pick, which wasn't great, had you finishing around sixth, too. One pick does not a team make. Here's just twenty picks you should make. Anyway, here's the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball:
How did I GET here? Did Grey open a magical portal and whisk me away from my fantasy football world like he was Dr. Who? I don't remember stepping into his TARDIS. The last thing I do remember was some guy with a mustache, free candy and a windowless van but he said he wanted to step into MY TARDIS. I don't think I'm remembering that last word right. In any case, just like Eddie Munster and him being a public notary, I'm also a fantasy baseball writer so I've got that going for me too. That last sentence was a Simpsons reference that only the cool - read 'forever alone' - kids are going to get. But of course, none of this filler is what I came here to tell you about which you no doubt knew from reading the title because you're clever like that. Nay, we're here to talk to you about a catcher north of the border whose game travels down my treasure trail and warms my southern hemisphere. We're talking about none other than the starting catcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, J.P. Arencibia, and whether or not his current low value at mock draft central is justified or not. Hence the title 'Discount Double Check' which is also a reference to Aaron Rodgers and fantasy football. See how clever that was and how it all ties together? They don't just keep me around here for my looks is all I can say. But enough of that, on with the show.
It's that time again... Drop your drawers and do two laps around your office! Not your underwear, I meant drop the two desk drawers you were holding and celebrate. Oh, well, you'll find another job in this economic climate; no problem! Now before we get into the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball (though I imagine every single one of you has skipped this intro paragraph), I'm gonna lay some ground rules. No talking. Damn, I'm copying this from my University of Phoenix syllabus and it's not translating as I had hoped. Okay, here's our fantasy baseball podcast. Here's where you follow us on Twitter. Here's where you follow us on Facebook. Here's our fantasy baseball player rater. Here's our fantasy baseball team name generator. Here is all of our 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. Here's the position eligibility chart for 2013 fantasy baseball. And here is a picture of my son. What a punim! You may not get all of those links in such a handy, easy-to-use format ever again this year, so make proper note. Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. The 2013 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob. This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2013 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Miguel Cabrera breaking a tooth on his maple bat as he tries to extract hops. So while it is the 2013 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt. Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2013 fantasy baseball, then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position. Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 100. Listed next to each player are my 2013 projections. Did I consult with whoever else does projections? It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections. Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings. Finally, as with each list in the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop. I look at tiers like this, if Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 1st and one guy is ranked 2nd, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference. I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at two, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind. Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball:
Like Tobias from Arrested Development, the Miami Marlins will forever be known for their offseason fire sale. OH, THE BURNING! Giancarlo Stanton seems to be the last man standing in South Beach. However, rebuilding can often mean opportunities for young talent to shine. This will be the case for catcher Rob Brantly. Brantly, 23, will have the chance to be the every-day catcher (sorry, Jeff Mathis) for Miami in 2013.
If you read this fantasy baseball web-blog when it still looked like a Geocities site, you know all about Mike Fiers. Bee tee dubya, I like the new site design and I think we've addressed all issues with mobile devices. If there's still problems -- besides, can you change the font to Wingdings? -- tell us and we'll look at it. Things are evolving. We have something coming in March that necessitated the site changes. We had simply outgrown the old site. I'll always have a special place in my heart for those wild orange flames that caused every fifteenth viewer to suddenly have a seizure. Maybe we can still get seizures...Together...With this new design. Last year, Fiers burst on the scene. Or rather, Fiers spontaneously combusted on the scene like he was a nine-year-old Drew Barrymore. (I'm referring to her role in Firestarter, not to her lighting up a crackpipe.) In Triple-A, he had a K and walk-rate of 8.02 and 2.95, respectively, then bested both marks in the majors with 9.52 and 2.54 rates. His pre-All-Break numbers were a thing of beauty (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 5.56 K/BB rate in 46 2/3 IP). To speak to only the K/BB, a 5.56 K/BB is incredible and would've been the 2nd best rate in all of the major leagues behind only Cliff Lee. None of those numbers are sustainable for Fiers and his 2nd half failed to live up to the 1st. Tiring in his first nearly full year probably played a role, but I don't think a guy should be considered a lock to beat his Triple-A numbers in the majors. So what can we expect of Mike Fiers for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
A little insider info, I wrote all of the pitcher profiles for one fantasy baseball preview magazine. (And here I didn't even know they made magazines anymore!) Felix Doubront didn't make the top 100 for that magazine. Did I shortchange them and their readers so I would give more to you Razzball readers? Um, well, I wouldn't say I shortchanged anyone. I just, you know, had selective fantasy 'pertness for those outside of Razzball's universe. Last year, the Po' Sawx looked like they were a dozen eggs short of an ostrich egg. Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia were hit with injuries and that wasn't even the big problem. Their pitching looked like one of those fake vomit plastic discs where the factory in China accidentally put real vomit into one. "That'll teach those stupid Americans to scare people with uncontrollable indigestion problems." That's a fake vomit factory worker in China. His name is Wei-Spray. He hates his job. He used to work at a fake doody factory, but felt like it was below him. He didn't catch the irony of that. For starters with at least 160 innings, Doubront had the 4th best K-rate. Right behind, Scherzer, Darvish and Gio. That's elite company. There's not a drafter out there that doesn't know to look at those three. Doubront's BB-rate wasn't great, in fact, it wasn't good. But of those four he didn't have the worst walk rate, that honor goes to Darvish. If you asked a hundred fantasy baseballers (<--my mom's term), who will have a better season, Darvish or Doubront? I guarantee you that a majority, if not all of them will say Darvish. I'm not sure it's that obvious. So, what can we expect of Felix Doubront for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?