Fantasy Baseball Advice

First the Brewers fire their manager in September, then they pitch CC on three days rest for about a month after letting him throw 150 pitches per start for two months and now they rush back their prized pitcher, Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers are officially trying to choke worse than the Mets, while the Mets are showing they weren’t one-flop wonders last year. Too bad the Astros and the Diamondbacks just flat out sucked for three months or they’d be battling for the Wild Card. Gallardo will probably only get to the fourth or fifth inning so he might not have much value. Then again, the Brewers may let him throw 100+ pitches until he turns the ball over to Sabathia for the final three innings. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa - HR yesterday and then a leg injury forced him out of the game. Ah, the agony and the ecstasy… What? I was being poetic.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday for the 4th game in a row. I told you to pick up Blalock two days before he hit his first. But whatever, you like to be difficult. It’s your thing.

Michael Young - 4-for-4, I think he still has, like, a fractured finger or something. If not scoring the winning run would help the Rangers go into extra innings and allow Young a chance for 200 hits, he would not score that run.

Carlos Zambrano - Since his no-hitter, he’s been a crap satay.

Willy Taveras - Done for the season with a stress fracture. Back date this to August. Dude stole 68 bases this year and collected only 64 runs. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time in a long time, maybe even forever, that someone stole as many as 68 bases and failed to score that many runs. Okay, maybe they didn’t say that. But here are some things heard around Elias Sports Bureau’s office in the last week, “Gloria, Roy’s secretary, said ‘It’s Jayson Stark calling’ thirty-eight times this week for a new office record,” “Roy said ‘Tell Stark I’m in a meeting’ a record thirty-eight times this week,” and “For a record ten times in one day, Mike coughed “loser” when asked if he was going to William’s birthday party.”

David DeJesus - Left yesterday’s game with a high hip flexor something or other. May not play again this year. Buh-but the Royals are fighting for 4th place!

Edinson Volquez - Likely done for the year. Finally drafting Cueto and Harang before Volquez looks like a smart move.

Andy Pettitte - Done for the year. Aceves will start on Saturday. I like that start, friend.

Ryan Franklin - Got another save. Looks like he’s the Cards closer for the final weekend. Do take note, save vultures.

Manny Delcarmen - There’s more vulture saves where that came from, carcass breath. The Sawx rested Papelbon and gave the save to Manny of Carmen.

Cameron Maybin - 3-for-3 with a steal before leaving the game with a stiff hip. Two stiff hips and he wouldn’t be able to walk out of the bar. Ladies and gentlemen, Kevin Eubanks.

Rafael Furcal - Was activated from the DL, and got into the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning. I wouldn’t expect too much from him these final few days; Torre says he’ll play “here and there. And I love cannolis.”

Adam Wainwright - In his last start of the year, gave up two earned in six innings. Decent return from injury in the 2nd half. That real upside of his struggles this year will be the fresh arm he’ll have next year. He’ll be on 75% of my teams next year, fo sho.

Mark Reynolds - His 199th K last night to tie the major league record. Earlier in the year, Rudy and I had a friendly wager going for who would strikeout the most, Cust or Reynolds. Unless Cust Ks eight more times than Reynolds this weekend, I should have it locked up. In other words, this bet is still very much undecided.

Max Scherzer - 5 IP, 2 ER. Last start of the year and he’s had prettier ones. I will write a lot more about Jobacum this offseason.

Todd Jones - He’s thrown his last 76 MPH fastball as he announced his retirement in his The Sporting News column. Other topics he covered in his column, “Real Men Rely on Finesse,” “Pussies Throw Fast,” and “Where have you gone, Fu Manchu mustache?” Pour some prune juice out for Jones.

We’re at the 1/4 mark for the first season of Razzball - a fantasy baseball game where you try to manage the worst team possible - and we’re on our way to probably the worst collective stat totals ever seen in a Yahoo! public league. With team batting averages as low as .238 and ERAs and ERAs as high as 5.36, it’s no wonder that Alan Trammell keeps bugging us for a chance to manage one of these teams (See 2003 Tigers team totals).

The top 4 are closely bunched but the leader at this point is….me. That’s right. My team sucks more than the rest. Look at me, ma. I’m king of the third world!

No doubt my 48 point offense (out of 60) has prospered at the expense of the real-life lineups that employ my top two picks (Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn). The two of them have combined for 277 ABs and managed 40 Runs, 3 HR (all Bourn), 12 RBI, 60 Ks, and a .206 AVG. Multiply that by two and you’ve got one AWFUL season. Message to Cecil Cooper and Clint Hurdle: Keep those guys at the top of your lineups. Don’t ruin a good thing…for me!

In 2nd place is our amateur entry from Josh the Non-Blogger - Team DFA (Designated For Assignment? Destined For Awfulness?). He’s overcome surprising starts by Scott Olsen, Edwin Jackson, and Ryan Ludwick with draftees like Franklin Morales (6.39 ERA over 25 IP yet only 2 HR?), Jose Castillo, and Brendan Harris (.248/33 Ks/2 HR/9 RBI) and smart pickups like the one-time apple of my eye Eugenio Velez and Tom “I’m Punto’s Backup” Tolbert.

In 3rd place is April league leader Cards In The Attic. Coincidence that his drop from 88 to 78 points started around the time that Pittsburgh dropped the anchor of his staff (and an anchor on their staff) Matt Morris? I blog to differ.

The 4th team of the top quartet is Roto Professor - who is so dedicated that he scouts Razztastic performances in the minor leagues. He’s smartly banking on the Giant offense (Ortmeier, Durham, Winn) but needs to find more AB machines like Kurt Suzuki and Jason Bartlett to avoid the minimum AB penalties (He’s currently about 320 AB off the pace of 5200 AB - the pro-rated stats definitely have an impact…e.g., goes from 20 to 25 HRs after applying 80 ABs of pro-rated 35 HRs.)

Other notes:

5th place Mop Up Duty’s team is looking good (bad?) relying on high AB/low performance middle infielders like Julio Lugo, Felipe Lopez, and David Eckstein. Also liked their recent preview on interleague play.

Biggest gainer in the last 20 days or so has to be the Fantasy Baseball Generals moving from 10th to 6th. Their ridiculous 3.17 ERA / 1.17 WHIP finally regressed (progressed?) to the mean with a move to 3.78 / 1.27. Keep up the bad pitching.

Blogmate Grey has fallen to 8th place. Ha ha…you don’t suck!

The team fielded by the blog formally known as GOTOS - now FantasyPhenoms - is suffering from a roster full of benchwarmers. Stop spending so much time on your fancy new blog and pick up some every day players. Their team’s 14 HR boosts to 31 HR because of the minimum-AB penalties. (BTW, here’s an interesting rank of pitchers they did - a little stat wonky but good.)

And in last place, our occasional contributor Lou and his Defunct Baseball Lab. Defunct indeed. I think you have to spend less time writing about great fantasy baseball players and start reading my Razzball Spotlights!

Our mad experiment of a fantasy baseball game has come to life! Thanks to all the bloggers (and one non-blogger) that participated in the draft. Click here for the league members as well as blogmate Grey’s review of the draft. Here are links to other league members’ posts:

RotoProfessor

Fantasy Baseball Generals

Greener on the Other Side

Drafting the worst team vs. the best team possible proved to be a much tougher undertaking than standard FLB but it also proved more rewarding and entertaining.

A quick recap of rules before I go into my roster and draft strategy. It’s a 10 team mixed league universe with the standard roster of C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/UTIL/9P with 5 bench slots. Weekly roster changes.

Hitting:

AB (High = 10 points), R (Low), HR (Low), RBI (Low), K (High), AVG (Low)

Any team ABs < 5200 receive prorated stats @ 550 ABs of .320 AVG/120 R/35 HR/120 RBI/50 K

Pitching:

IP (High = 10 points), L (High), HR allowed (High), ERA (High), WHIP (High), K (Low)

Maximum – 180 starts

My draft strategy was to focus on low HR/RBI players with 500+ AB potential in the first couple rounds with preference toward typically strong positions of 1B, 3B, and OF. This surplus of AB with low power could hopefully be cashed in by using 300 AB platoon types in tougher to fill positions like CI and 4th/5th OF as well as support a high K player or two with good power stats. I also wanted to draft several multi-position players so I had flexibility when my craptastic players got the benchings they deserved. For pitchers, I focused on low K rate starters who have some job security (say, 2nd to 4th starter).

Time will tell if this strategy works out but I was very successful at executing it. See below for the draft results. I snagged three light-hitting OFs in the first four rounds (Taveras, Bourn, Owens) that combined for 4 HRs in 2007! Taveras and Bourn look like they should go for 900+ ABs and Owens should be able to kick in at least 300. I was also able to get 2 SS Razzball legends in Adam Everett and Cristian Guzman who are set to be everyday anchors. Was able to get versatile Brendan Ryan (2B/SS/3B), Esteban German (2B/3B/OF), and Pablo Ozuna (3B/OF) at good value. Snagged two K machines in Jack Cust (41% of 2007 AB!) and Mike Cameron (160 last year). Cust is going to feel like a big swinging dick in my fantasy OF - probably the same way Jack Clark felt on the 1985 Cardinals.

I didn’t take a pitcher until the 9th round but feel like I’ve got a number of guys who’ll be good for 20+ awful starts including Kyle Kendrick, John Denks, and two of the terrible Mariner trio (Batista and Washburn - Silva went early).

Here are the draft results & rosters. (Click on the image for better resolution)

So what do you think? Which team do you like the least, ur, most?

For years, Juan Pierre has given teams a boost in steals, a decent average and little else. Well, there’s going to be a new Juan Pierre and his name is Michael Bourn. Or maybe Willy Taveras was the new Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn will be the new Willy Taveras, or Michael Bourn will be the new new Juan Pierre. Now that that is muddled appropriately, let’s look at the new new Juan Pierre.

Michael Bourn will presumably bat first for the Houston Astros. A great place for a prospect that Baseball America pointed out as having the “Best Strike Zone Discipline.” Okay, not exactly Best Newcomer at the AVN Awards, but strike zone discipline is not a bad thing to have for a leadoff man. I’m talking to you, Granderson.

What made Baseball America bestow Bourn with such an honor? He had a career Minor League OPS: .855 (.426 OBP). To go hand and hand with his strike zone discipline, he has demon-like speed. In Low-A he stole 57 bases in 63 attempts - a success rate of over ninety percent. BTW, those 57 bases were in only 106 games. In one and a half years at Double-A, he was 68 for 84. Triple-A, a tidy 15 for 16. Last year on the Phillies, Bourn was used primarily as a pinch runner and stole 18 of 19 bags. In 119 at-bats in the majors, he registered a .348 OBP. Oh, and Bourn hit six homers in Double-A. Juan Pierre doesn’t have six homers if you combine ‘05, ‘06 and ’07 or almost 2000 at-bats.

Also, in this great featherweight match, Michael Bourn is more than four and a half years younger than Juan Pierre. Now nowhere will you find me endorsing you draft a speed-only type like Bourn, but if you find yourself in need of a quick boost of steals, Bourn will be drafted probably ten rounds later than Juan Pierre in mixed leagues. For that kind of value, avoid Pierre and grab Bourn.