Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.

Kelvim Escobar was sent to the bullpen.  His value goes from potentially good to potentially nothing.  Scioscia said Escobar will be pitching out of the bullpen for the rest of the season.  Scioscia also said Brandon Wood would start at shortstop two years ago and said Arredondo, the guy now in the minors, would be the closer and he said Rex Hudler’s got the best herb, when he wants to get wiggy with Figgy.  Escobar will probably start games again in a month or two.  But even if that is the case, he’s about as good to you now as those X-ray glasses you bought out of the back of a comic book when you were twelve.  Matt Palmer gets a boost in value, which is to say he actually has value now.   Palmer’s K/9 is 5.48.  Not great.  His BABIP is .228, that’s pretty lucky.  He’s rocking a 4.06 ERA right now, that’ll go up.  In AL-Only leagues, Palmer’s worth a spot, but he’s probably on a team already.  In mixed leagues, 15 or deeper?  Sure, but I wouldn’t touch him in 12 team leagues outside of matchups.  Friday vs. the Padres is a good matchup.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ervin Santana – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Member when he was only good at home?  Yeah, now he’s not good anywhere.  I think he’s headed for the Disgraceful List.

Matt Joyce – The return of Burrell pushes Joyce back to Triple-A.  Hopefully, he gets a real chance at some point.

Pat Burrell – He skipped his Single-A rehab assignment and, instead, will sit the bench for the next six games then be back in the DH spot when interleague’s over.  This is fascinating to me.  He was going to DH in a rehab game?  So he gets four ABs against a Single-A pitcher?  He couldn’t get that in batting practice?  Then he returns to sit the bench for a week?  The guy running the local Dairy Queen could make better decisions than some big league clubs.  A Sour Worm Blizzard is brilliant compared to this.

Hanley Ramirez – Sat out for a normal day of rest.  What’s Hanley doing this year?  8/8?  Who are you, Shin-Soo Choo?  The Marlins have been threatening to put the brakes on Hanley for a few years now.  I think they finally manned up and told him to chillax.  Last year he only stole 12 bases in the 2nd half.  Now with his groin flare-up (no, not in that way) and the Marlins realizing he’s their bread and butter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 25/25 year.  Still a great year for a shortstop, just not what you might’ve thought you were getting.

Chien-Ming Wang – Will stay in the rotation for one more turn.  Just because Hankenstein’s sticking with him, doesn’t mean you need to.

Zach Greinke – 7 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Okay, I get the whole great-season-let’s-countdown-to-his-Cy-Young thing.  But is “Greinke Suffers a No-Decision” really a headline?  Suffering from indecision maybe.

Willy Taveras – He relies on his legs and they’re hurting him.  Right now, he’s AGNOF!  The S is really critical.

Chad Qualls – Got the save.  I need saves in the league I own him in and I hate seeing him come into the game, not a great place to be.

Max Scherzer – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks, only 4 baserunners vs. the Giants.  I like Scherzer, so don’t read too much into this, but Schierholtz and Juan Uribe were the two and three hole hitters.  Hitting sixth, Kevin Frandsen with an .071 average on the year. Protecting him was Eli Whiteside.  Didn’t he win the Nobel for his book, Night? A Giants split squad game would be a 0-0 tie called on account of darkness.

Derrek Lee – HR yesterday.  .367 in June after hitting .313 in May.  The steals look like they’ll never come back, so he might be Lyle Overbay in disguise.

Ian Stewart – 12th homer, or one less than Ryan Braun.  In Yahoo, Stewart has 2nd and 3rd base eligibility.  Cust kayin’.

Nomar Garciaparra – Had an MRI done on his calf.  Who insures this guy?

Luke Scott – Hit his 14th homer yesterday.  All he does is hit home runs!  No, really, that’s all he does.

Gavin Floyd – 8 IP, 1 ER. He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can hardly wait.

Edwin Jackson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners.  Whoa, don’t you dare go back to being mediocre.  Armando Galarraga’s filling that role.

Clete Thomas – Went from batting 3rd to being optioned to the minors.  Ah, yes, perfect sense.  Don Kelly will be recalled.  I’m assuming he’ll slot right into the three hole next.

John Maine – Headed to the DL with a sore shoulder.  Hey, a couple of days ago he had a dead arm.  Sore is progress.

David Wright – 3-for-4 and stole his 17th base as he tries to challenge Alex Rios’s 2008 season as the most perplexing in recent memory.

Joe Beimel – Got the save yesterday as Acta pulled the old banana-in-the-tailpipe on MacDougal owners.  MacDougal is supposedly still the closer, he had just worked too many days in the row.  The Nats might be the only team where their announced closer is the only one that doesn’t get saves.

Ricky Romero – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  I liked him for a while in April, then he went to the DL and I got bored.  Now he’s back (from outer space), he’s an ‘okay’ flier in deeper mixed leagues, but he’s been getting lucky with men left on base.  I’d be careful.

Kevin Millwood – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Would you believe he has a 2.72 ERA on the year?  That’s not rhetorical.  Seriously, I had no idea.  I own him on an AL-Only team and I didn’t even know that.  Maybe he’s having one of those renaissance years.  But then he’d be walking around saying, “Good morrow, Kinsler!” and “Davis, fetch me some mead!”

Ross Gload – 2 HRs.  Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!  What?  Nothing?  Oh, well.  I got the reference.

Todd Wellemeyer – 6 IP, 5 ER. Gload’s on you, Jack!  What?  Still nothing?  Hmm…

Ryan Franklin – 14th save, 1.14 ERA on the year.  Next year, he’s going to be so overvalued.  People are gonna be like, “Franklin had a sub-2 ERA.  He’s the bee’s elbows, knees and toes!”

Javier Vazquez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Then Rafael Soriano threw Javy’s one bad inning for him giving up 2 runs.

Raul Ibanez – HR yesterday.  After the home run, he declared a fatwa on the whole Midwest.

Francisco Liriano went four innings and gave up seven runs against a team that absolutely kills lefties in Fenway.  Let’s run down his 3-year averages for the months of the season, starting with April: 6.93, 1.99, 1.51, 2.31, 1.13 and 4.36.  You think he might need some time to get going?  His April combined ERA for the last 3 years, not including this year, is almost 7.  His combined May through August ERAs are under 2. Are you kidding me? Heffin’ hey, trade for him! This might be the best buy you find right now.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kurt Suzuki – First HR of the season yesterday.  He hit one HR through the middle of June last year.  What is everyone doing at Yankee Stadium?  Is it the Macarena?  The Electric Slide?  No, it’s The Jetstream!

Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’ll get better, but it’s not going to get much better to make him a buy candidate.

Joe Saunders – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Take out the Liquid Paper; more corrections to come.

Andre Ethier – Hit his 5th HR yesterday.  Frankly, sometimes I’m wrong. (17% of the time!)  I had my doubts about whether he would produce this year, but he’s doing it.

Hunter Pence – 4th homer, 3rd steal in yesterday’s game.  Marching towards 25/15 and top 30 outfielder status.

Francisco Cordero – 6th save, 1.29 ERA. Member he was a mess in spring training?  Uh-huh.

Kevin Gregg – 1 IP, 1 ER, 6.43 ERA.  Member he was a mess in– Oh, wait.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER. 2.55 ERA on the season.  In the preseason, I said I was higher on Cueto this year than Volquez.  I wasn’t joking.

Milton Bradley – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  Batting .043 so far this season when he shows up healthy and it’s not raining.  Cubs fans were booing him yesterday like he was Bartman and a goat’s love child.

Willy Taveras – 0-for-2, batting .268.  Wait, he’s no longer batting .400?  Ah, dim the lights in Ted Williams’s freezer for one more year.

David Purcey – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Still burping.

Omar Vizquel/Ian Kinsler/Andruw Jones – Is there anyone not batting over .400 on the Rangers?  Oh, Salty B. Davis.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  1.42 ERA on the year.  I really like Jar-Jar this year.  I don’t think his ERA stays anywhere near where it is, obviously.  But he can keep it around 3.75 with some Ks.

Adam Dunn – 0-for-4. Oh, well. .300’s in the rear view.

Scott Baker – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Someone’s having a bit of a problem with the long ball.  If you had to ask me if he’s going to rebound in May like CC last year, or if he’s going to become completely unusable like Gorzelanny.  I’d take Gorz and June as the under.  I think Baker’s headed for the Disgraceful List. You don’t give up 7 home runs in 8 and two-thirds and just suddenly say, “Hey, you know what?  I just realized I was supposed to be throwing the ball harder.  And in better locations.”

Brian Bannister – Maybe he just likes pitching in April.  Pumpkin’s ETA is one week.

Josh Fields – HR, 3-for-5, batting in the 2 hole.  If this sticks, and, with Ozzie, anything’s possible, this could boost Fields’s value a lot.

Carlos Villanueva – Back as the setup man.  Only he was setting up Todd Coffey.  The Baron, frequent commenter/guest poster, pegged Coffey as an out of nowhere closer that gets 30 saves this year as Hoffman continues to get injured.  Not as crazy as it sounds.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER.  I like him; you know that.  But it sure don’t hurt when there’s only one guy in the opposing starting lineup hitting .300.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I feel like this guy isn’t getting the respect he deserves.  So far I’ve mentioned him in two of three Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sells as a Buy.  I put him as a starter to target in the preseason.  What do I have to do?  Help me, help you.

John Maine – 5.2 IP, 5 ER.  Outdueled by Joel Pineiro.  I just vomited onto my wall and it reads, “Punt.”

B.J. Ryan – 1 IP, 3 ER. Downs wasn’t much better making this a save situation in the first place by giving up a run.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday.  It was a tied game and Cox brought in his lefty closer into a tight game to face a tough lefty.  Don’t need to read too much into it.  Soriano’s 2nd in line, we knew that already though.

LaTroy Hawkins – Joey Valgreen’s decomposing right before our ojos – bad back, ankle, and calf.    We have no faith whatsoever in Hawkins but if he asked us to the SAGNOF dance, we’d accept the offer.  If you’ve got Valverde, go buy yourself some LaTroy Handcuffs…

Jay Bruce – Another HR.  This time I had him in my lineup.  Bruuuuuce!

Jeremy Guthrie – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  His team gives him no chances for wins, he faces the top offenses in baseball all the time, he doesn’t strikeout that many guys and he’s only a 4 ERA pitcher to begin with.   You win, world of Guthrie haters.  Are you happy?

Melky Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday.  4 HRs in 23 ABs this year.  Everybody, come on!  We’re doing The Jetstream! (What? Trying too hard?)

Razzball Glossary Entry:  SAGNOF

Pronunciation: Sag Noff

Noun

1. SAGNOF — Saves Ain’t Got NO Face.  The act or instance of ignoring how terrible a pitcher is, instead concentrating on his role of closer.
Is this guy the best reliever for the job of closer?  Who knows?  Doesn’t matter.  SAGNOF!

2. SAGNOF — Steals Ain’t Got NO Face. The act or instance of ignoring how awful a hitter is as long as he’s fast.
Just dropped Crapolanco for this minor league journeyman who had 40 steals in Triple-A…  SAGNOF!

Verb

1. SAGNOF’ing. To employ SAGNOF.
I’m SAGNOF’ing with LaTroy Hawkins, Saul Rivera and every guy in the Tigers pen.

Adjective

1. SAGNOFy.  Mood characterized by an extreme wont for saves or steals.
I was feeling especially SAGNOFy and picked up Emilio Bonifacio to play 3rd.

Variation

1. SAGNOF’er.  One who employs SAGNOF.
I’m a SAGNOF’er ’til I die.  Get the saves and steals and leave the cannoli!

Origin

The philosophy of SAGNOF is one that polarizes the fantasy baseball community.  Some squeamish players have nightmares over the time that Jose Mesa gave up 6 ERs in a 1/3 of an inning (don’t write a book about it – learn from Omar Vizquel) while others revel about how they somehow got 30 saves and a near-2.00 ERA from a seemingly washed up Todd Jones in 2005.

While most fantasy baseballers would agree that you’ve got to roster anyone who can provide Saves, the SB specialist is more maligned.  One look at Wily Taveras’s HR/RBI/AVG makes you wish fantasy baseball rosters were like figure skating and diving competitions where you can wipe out the lowest scores.  The creative fantasy baseballer, however, sees a SAGNOF and creates a minotaur with a lumbering slugger.  Examples include the international playboy Juan Pierre Dunn and Green Mile actor Michael Bourn Howard.

We at Razzball do not judge the SAGNOF.  An itch needs to be scratched.  A loose nut needs to be screwed.  And a team sometimes needs some Saves and Stolen bases even if they’re not pretty.

In the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we already went over 2009’s top 40 outfielders.  But like Jacques Cousteau once may have said to his underachieving son, “That’s not deep enough.”  There’s more outfielders to draft than there’s members of the Wu-Tang Clan, so we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you think there’s no value to be found this deep in the position, ask someone who owned Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury or Milton Bradley last year.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Jayson Werth – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Juan Pierre.  I call this tier, “Guys I like, but they have caveats.”  As for Werth, will he still be… *pinkie to mouth* Worthwhile?  He should be.  In Citizen’s Bank, Werth should be good for at least 17 HRs and he can chuck in 17 steals, as well.  The one caveat is he might hit .260.  2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17

42. Coco Crisp – Well, hello, Mr. Cereal.  I already went over Coco Crisp for 2009 fantasy.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.280/25

43. Xavier Nady – 2008 was a career year.  Nady could go 25/90 in 2009.  He’s not hitting .300 again.  2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275

44. Conor Jackson – His 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

45. Fred Lewis – With the bunions behind him (no, “bunions behind him” is not a euphemism for hemorrhoids), he’s ready to be valuable in 2009.  2009 Projections:  95/12/50/.270/25

46. Andre Ethier – In the top 4o outfielders post, someone asked where was Ethier.  I said, “Ethier hit 7 home runs in August and .462 in September, two insane months that don’t look like they’re going to be easily repeated.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5

47. Mark DeRosa – DeRosa’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 post.

48. Justin Upton – He’s very young still, but check this out.  To get you further jazzed, he led the majors with the longest average home run at 417 feet, according to “The Bill James Handbook.”  2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7 but there’s lots of upside from those numbers.

49. Nelson Cruz – Went over him in a fantasy sleeper post.  2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10

50. Adam Jones – Could be a younger, slightly riskier Coco Crisp.  Speaking of Coco Crisp, someone has the munchies!  2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12

51. Shin-Soo Choo – Let’s call him a less stoned, more Korean Adam Jones.   2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11

52. Rick Ankiel – Not sure how the Cards outfield is going to shake out, but at some point, someone’s going to have to make room for Colby Rasmus.  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

53. Denard Span – I not-so-secretly hope Span fails miserably for Gomez’s sake.  Unfortunately (or fortunately if you’re Span kin — I said, spanking — hehe), I think Span’s here to stay, even in the Twins overcrowded outfield.  His batting eye was impeccable last year.  2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20

54. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Taveras.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF.”  2009 Projections:  Steals

55. Willy Taveras – I have two words for you…. Actually, that was six words to get to the two words so eight words… Well, technically, now I’m up to twenty-one words.  Anyway, Dusty Baker, that was the original two words.  Baker’s going to bat Taveras lead-off and let him run like crazy.  He might just get 80 Steals and 60 Runs.  2009 Projections:  Lotsa steals.

56. Mike Cameron – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “The Forgetten Vets.” If Mike Cameron and Adam Dunn were invited to a pinata party, we can guarantee one of two outcomes:  no candy or a whole lotta candy.  2009 Projections:  70/22/75/.245/18

57. Nick Swisher – Swisher’s 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

58. Hideki Matsui – I almost put Eric Byrnes here, but he’s old and he relied on speed.  Matsui will prolly get 400 ABs this year and produce solid numbers for a deep league.  2009 Projections:  70/18/80/.285

59. Randy Winn – As is the case with this tier, these guys offer little upside.  Winn is the epitome of that.  2009 Projections:  80/12/60/.290/17

60. David DeJesus – You have Kelly Johnson and the dealer is showing David DeJesus.  That’s a push.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.290/12

61. Jason Kubel – I just couldn’t resist adding one more name.  Some people may look at Kubel and say yawnstipating, I look at him and I say not that far from Jermaine Dye’s numbers.  2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280

After the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Jeff Francoeur – There’s certain guys you can grab late to look for upside-slash-a bounce back year, Frenchy ain’t one of them.  I wouldn’t draft him with your team.  2009 Projections:  65/18/70/.260

Elijah Dukes -  The location is the car.  The scene is Dukes and Milledge carpooling to work.  Did you bring quarters for the toll? I thought you got some when you bought that BK Broiler.  Those are MY quarters! Screech to the side of the road.  2009 Projections:  75/20/70/.265/15 (<–not as optimistic as you might think)