I’m back baby!

It’s been sad these past two weeks off from the Pitcher Profiles, but fortunately I could drown my sorrows in all-inclusive, all-day drinking on the honeymoon. YES I DID GET A STRAWBERRY DAIQUIRI, GREY! Although it didn’t stain my mustache, especially since a month long of growth would just be shameful peach fuzz…

We’re now through the bulk of the season and heading into the stretch run, which means Sky has only September left to get to 1,000 moves in our quote-expert-unquote RCL league. If expert meant constantly dropping 6-7 duds every morning, than I’m an expert in my thrown room if ya catch my drift… And on the pitching side, once you get to about 50ish in my ROS ranks, they all can be given the evacuation. But I’ve been really bullish on ranking Luis Severino since his promotion, who I think is a must-own even through these final streaming weeks.

It’s a little hard to stay light-hearted and joke-y with what happened in Atlanta on Saturday night, but obviously my condolences to the fan’s family and we’re supposed to have fun in fantasy, so we won’t delve any more into that. Instead, let’s embrace what we love on the field, which is some nasty breaking stuff and hitters getting baffled. Who doesn’t base their fantasy-team live-watching on their SPs on a given night?! So this was a perfect weekend to get back on the Profiles and check out how Severino looked in a full breakdown:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You never stop learning. Ever. The baseball season is a long race and while you think you may know what a player is or what you can expect, you have to keep checking in on trends to make sure you didn’t miss a zig when you been watching them zag all season.

Today’s J.D. Martinez is tomorrow’s Ryan Zimmerman. You may disregard a player like Brandon Moss, but if you are watching his power metrics and hard contact rate holding at an above average rate, you may just roster him in a tournament and watch him go deep with pride, as he did Thursday night.

Stay vigilant. Players returning from injury, like Stephen Strasburg, may have tightened up something that they weren’t getting right pre-injury. For Stras, it’s his curveball that he’s found that has jumped his swinging strike rate from 7-8% pre-injury, to 13 percent over his last several starts.

David Wright is a has-been who can’t be counted on anymore. *You check the numbers, find out he’s raking* Welp.

Making this part of the routine makes the DFS season fun and takes advantage of fish who have taken their eyes off baseball right now to bone up for the NFL season. Reel them in and cash on them — it’s what David Wright would want you to do.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Look, I’m all about facts here. I have my sources *googles Shelby Miller‘s favorite ice cream…finds nothing…looks under google images…randomly finds naked women…stops writing for a while to do further research* Well, looks like my sources failed me. I can’t verify anything about Miller’s cold dessert of choice but I can verify some other, more factually laden and potentially more useful sets of data. Like for example, Shelby enjoys his friendly confines where he goes from a 6.56 K/9 on the road to a lovely 9 per at home. To no one’s surprise, this shaves about a run off his road ERA down to a ace-like 2.01 in Atlanta. But of course, that’s only half the math. The other? The Rockies and their road woes just never seem to go away as they rank 3rd worst in wRC+ at 81 and a second worst K% at 24.2%. To make matters worse, Colorado might be without Carlos Gonzalez and are already sitting at the bottom in wRC+ in the month of August. They tell you not to kick someone when they’re already down but I’m out here offering you metal-toed boots and I’m paying the ref to look away. That’s the kind of service you get with a $9,500 price tag. I wouldn’t call him a deal, per se, but I would call him a high upside buy as your SP1 on a day where it gets ugly quick past the top end plays. But enough about my high school prom options, let’s get on with it. Here’s my cayenne ice cream hot takes for this Wednesday DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You’d think with a lineup featuring Prince Fielder, the Alfredo would go down fast and leave a mess for someone to clean up. I mean, I know Fielder is a vegetarian so maybe there were too many meatballs? How else can you explain it? It wasn’t Sunday so ‘Any Given Sunday’ need not apply and Any Given Thursday just opens the door for all the days of the week to claim coincidence as its catch phrase. We can’t have these things, there must be a reason! Yeah, there are no reasons. To the antithesis of all baseball nerd reasoning, Alfredo Simon pitched a complete game yesterday against a reasonably good Texas Rangers offense, only giving up one hit and two walks in the process while K’ing five in the shut out. Alfredo was giving up 1.45 HR/9 to go with a .383 wOBA to lefties on the year going into last night and faced a team that had five reasonably good lefty bats in their lineup. Let’s just stuff this one away in Gray’s Sports Almanac and move on with our lives without giving it a second thought, shall we? Yes, let’s. So without further ado, the guy who isn’t Grey will lead you through the rest of what he saw from yesterday for 2015 Fantasy Baseball…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk continued to hit all the baseballs last night chipping in two hits and a two-run home run to help beat the Braves. Randy! Randy! Randy! Randy has been quite randy indeed lately, he’s now homered in back to back games and he’s hitting .346 with six runs, four home runs, ten RBI and a stolen base in the past week. Yes! More please! He’s slashing .283/.333/.566 with 11 home runs and 36 RBI on the year, and the .900 OPS ain’t too shabby either. But it’s the 11 homers in 219 at-bats that raises my eyebrow, Dwayne Johnson. That’s a 25-30 homer hitter over a full season, folks! If we take a peep at the next level stats we can see Randy and his .375 BABIP may be getting a bit lucky. Let’s not even talk about 30.8 K% and 5.8 BB% because they are downright awful. And sure Stephen Piscotty could threaten to steal some of Grichuk’s ABs down the line. However, the fact is Grichuk is hitting hot fire right now and is still under 50% owned in most leagues, a number that will undoubtedly grow over the next few hours as the legend of his four homer week spreads throughout the land. Time to Buy-chuk, Grichuk! I’d add him in all leagues while he’s still hitting everything he sees into the bleachers. Randy! Randy! Randy!

Here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball Friday night:

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Since returning from the All-Star break, no hitter has scored more points than Joey Votto. Votto-D2 (for you Star Wars geeks) has 10 hits, 2 home runs, 3 RBIs, 8 walks and a stolen base to give him 39 points over 7 games. On the season he now has 265 points which puts him in the top ten first basemen, where he has quite the company. He’s currently on pace for 30 ding dongs, 10 stolen bases and a .300 batting average. But what I really hope is that he has a son name Otto.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Who was actually good…

Last time, I used ADP data and player values to determine Kyle Lohse was the most under-drafted player of the last five years. Turns out, there are some assumptions in the calculation that could be tweaked, and the result could be a totally different most under-drafted player. Go figure! The methodology was to take the difference between a player’s preseason ADP and his end-of-season rank to determine  “undervalued-ness”. This time we’re still going to take the difference, but it’ll be between the square root of his ADP and the square root of his EOS rank.

Why the square rooting? The reason is to give more weight to better players, which square rooting accomplishes.

For reference, here’s the list from last time (that won one lucky man a Razzball T-Shirt):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

With the first half now in the books, it’s time to take inventory on the OBP/OPS delights and surprises and forecast a bit for the second half.

Let’s start at the top with the undisputed OBP/OPS King of the first half of 2015, Bryce Harper. Harper has paced the league in both categories since late April and hasn’t looked back yet. Harper has a .464 OBP and a whopping 1.168 OPS. Only Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt are really in the neighborhood with respect to either category. I do expect Harper’s blistering first half to be the best we’ll see from him. I don’t expect another 1.168 OPS going forward, but he should still wind up in the top spot or so in the season’s end, so don’t expect significant regression. Remember those commercials that showed Harper yucking it up next to the Bambino, in grainy, black and white? It seemed absurd at the time, and it still is, but Harper is at least holding up his end of the bargain when Sports Illustrated dubbed him “The Chosen One.” I’m all in on Harper for the second-half and in 2016 and beyond.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Last week I put together comprehensive year-to-date, rest of season and end of season rankings for batters. Quite honestly I think it was the bees knees, but that’s just me tooting my own horn. Do bees even have knees? If you are in a points league and missed it, I highly recommend you check it out. And when I say I “highly” recommend it, that does not mean I ate pot brownies two hours before making said recommendation. I was just standing at the top of a 30-foot ladder.

Please, blog, may I have some more?