I’ve been playing fantasy baseball since I was 15 back in 1992. If you have access to a calculator, that should tell you how old I am. Back then we had to gather the stats from newspapers, The Bergen Record to be precise, and compile the standings by hand. We had two guys in the league responsible for this awful task, and I was one of them. It wasn’t as bad as it sounds, but to look back at it from where we are today with all of the websites and mobile apps we now have that make it so easy, I wonder what fantasy sports will be like in another 20 years. What I’m hoping for is a button that I can press that will instantly taser a player on my team if he does something that I don’t like. Not likely? I didn’t think so, but a guy can dream.
Back in 1992, fantasy baseball was strictly roto format. There was no such thing as head-to-head points leagues. Life was so simple back then. Fast forward and enter the head-to-head points league format…As much as I love them, I hate them even more. So why do I play head-to-head? Because a bunch of my friends started a league about 15 years ago and they needed another owner. So who did they ask? You know who has two thumbs and loves fantasy baseball? This guy!
In the beginning I really did enjoy it. It took a few seasons until I realized a lot of its tragic flaws, and by flaws I mostly mean the degree of luck involved in success. But that’s not what I am here to talk about today. I’ll save that diatribe for another post. Every year I propose new rules in hopes of making the league more tolerable, and I have had some success, but ultimately the burning question that always remains is why I continue to play. The answer is simple. It keeps me in contact with a bunch of my old buddies that I have slowly grown away from over the years and my burning desire to beat them.
I have rule. If I commit, I have to be all-in. Therefore I have spent the last 15 years trying to perfect my approach to the game. I am far from reaching my goal of world domination, but I have managed to pick up a few tricks of the trade along the way and I am here to share as many of them as I can with you fellow Razzballers.
The most important rule is to have an intimate understanding of your league’s rules. Why? So that you can know exactly how to exploit them. Exploit them? Sounds like cheating. I am not talking about cheating. I’m not even sure how you would cheat in fantasy baseball if you wanted to. Allow me to rephrase. By “exploit” I mean make the most of your situation. Ok enough bullshart, let’s get to it.
The first rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club. Fight Club? Who said anything about Fight Club? The first rule of head-to-head points leagues is to understand that “points are king”. Not cash, points. Analyze your league’s scoring system and learn how to maximize points. Here are some questions you can ask yourself to help figure out which players have the most potential to score points. How many points does my league give to stolen bases? How many points for wins? Saves? Does my league subtract points from hitters for strikeouts? Does my league give points for holds or quality starts? Do I lose points for losses and blown saves? If so, how many?
Once you have all of these questions answered, you can start to formulate a game plan for figuring out which players to target. Step one is to find a reliable set of projections. For those not comfortable settling on a single set of projections, I suggest selecting a few that have a good track record and averaging them together. There is no shortage of projections out there, just do your homework. And make sure you have full stat projections. Those intended for 5×5 roto leagues won’t cut the mustard. When you’re happy with your projections, plug in your league’s scoring formula and generate each players’ projected fantasy points. All you are doing is converting stat projections into point projections. After all, it’s points we care about at the end of the day. And now we know which players at each position will help our team earn the most points. Most likely we knew who 1, 2 and maybe 3 were ahead of time, but this will show us how the top 10-12 might shake out. I have attached a spreadsheet below that converts Razzball’s Streamer projections into fantasy points. You can modify the “H2H Points” worksheet to adapt to your scoring system.
The scoring system I am using for the basis of this post is as follows:
RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+2), 3B (+3), HR (+4), BB (+1), KO (-1), HBP (+1), SB (+1), CS (-1), SF (+1)
Unlike auctions where you have a limited budget to fill a roster and might not be able to afford the best available point scorer at a position in need, in snake draft leagues you should be doing exactly that. Filling up your starting lineup with the players that are projected to score the maximum points at each position taking position scarcity and average draft position into account. Sounds obvious, but I felt the need to call it out.
Here are a few more suggestions I urge you to consider. For those that say some of these are common sense, well good for you because that puts you a step ahead of some of the competition. One thing I’ve learned very quickly when writing for Razzball is that the commenters here are pretty damn fantasy smart.
Power Pitchers
These are nothing like Power Rangers. Especially ones that allegedly stab their roommate. What’s with that dude? Although if I was looking for a roommate and saw the guy had a real sword on the wall next to the bathroom, I’d be outta there. Feets don’t fail me now! Power pitchers are strikeout pitchers or pitchers that pitch deep into games or both. At least that’s how I am defining them. Both of these qualities are great for points leagues. Even if a pitcher gives up a few runs and hits, strikeouts and innings pitched allow them to make up for those negative points. 40 of the top 50 starting pitchers (80%), based on points, had at least 150 strikeouts. The 10 that didn’t were Tanner Roark, Dallas Keuchel, Wei-Yin Chen, Edinson Volquez, Hiroki Kuroda, Kyle Loshe, Dan Haren, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Alfredo Simon. And guess what, a lot of these pitchers can be drafted late. 39 of these same 50 pitchers had an average draft position (ADP) of the 10th round or later. 32 of them had an ADP of 15 or greater. And 50% of them had an ADP of 20 or greater. So there are some very valuable pitchers to be had during those wee hours of the draft. You might also want to take a look at Points Per Start (PPS) as another indicator of points-worthy starters.
Two-Start Pitchers and Streaming
Starts! Starts! Starts! That was meant to be read the way Lil Jon says “shots” in that LMFAO song. Two start pitchers are your friend. The concept is simple. Two starts equals double the opportunity for points. I do love me some two starters. Nothing better than having 8 starts in a week compared to your opponent’s 4 or 5. Don’t hate the player… How do you get even more starts? If your rules permit it, streaming is a valuable source of points. You should always be keeping an eye on the waiver wire for two-start pitchers for the coming week and even the week after that. I think Razzball has a great tool for doing this. You will often find that there is a two-start option out there that would be a higher percentage play than your 4th or 5th starter on any given week. Just make sure you make the move before your opponent does. And don’t let anyone shame you about streaming.
SP in RP
There’s practically nothing more demoralizing in head-to-head points leagues than looking at your opponent’s lineup for the week and seeing that he has 12 starts. On the flip side, there’s something very enjoyable about the thought of the moment your opponent sees that you are dropping a 12-start bomb on his head. How does one get 12 starts with 4 starting pitcher lineup spots? Make sure your roster has some starting pitchers that are eligible at RP. Every year there are always plenty of these beauties out there. Rudy was kind enough to put together a list for 2015 which can be found here. Combine this with streaming two-start pitchers and you have the recipe for pitching points ala in your face!
Consistency
Target players that tend to score about the same number of points each week. Players that score points in bunches are unpredictable. Heck, fantasy baseball is unpredictable, but there are some small things we can do to mitigate this fact. Players that score a sh!t ton of points one week and then nothing for the next two will prove to be extremely frustrating in head-to-head points leagues. Despite an awful 2014, a player like Jay Bruce comes to mind. Instead of scoring 45 one week and then 15 the next, I’d much rather have 30 each week. Consistency. Identifying consistent point scorers is no easy task, and at this point, 2014 weekly stats are hard to come by. The best I could find was monthly. Unfortunately in weekly leagues, monthly stats don’t provide the data points we are looking for. However using Points Per Plate Appearance (PPPA) allows us to get some sort of idea of consistency over the months. I have attached a spreadsheet detailing each players’ month to month PPPA but those numbers are tough to sort through. Using standard deviation and ignoring outliers (months where a player scored less than 5 points for the entire month), here is what I found. The most consistent points achiever per plate appearance was Domonic Brown with monthly PPPA averages of 0.4095, 0.4105, 0.4434, 0.5067, 0.459 and 0.4857. But who give a shoot. Those are crappy averages and he only managed 229 points on the season. Here are the top few consistent PPPA players that scored at least 300 points on the season. Nick Markakis (0.5225, 0.5, 0.5769, 0.4513, 0.5039, 0.5281), Michael Brantley (0.7545, 0.876, 0.8077, 0.7521, 0.7168, 0.8018), Kyle Seager (0.5625, 0.5652, 0.678, 0.5413, 0.6273, 0.5189), Ben Revere (0.47, 0.4778, 0.5392, 0.6042, 0.4603, 0.5804), Christian Yellich (0.4746, 0.5854, 0.5918, 0.4545, 0.5512, 0.4262) and Denard Span (0.4896, 0.5785, 0.6102, 0.6396, 0.5703, 0.7021)). Now I’m not saying to rush out and grab these guys, except Brantley, but if it’s between one of these guys and a similar option, these players might prove to be a better choice. Also keep in might that I’d rather have an inconsistent hitter who is consistently inconsistent with high numbers of points.
I think that’s enough out of me for the moment considering you had me at hello…
