Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Oh, the world we live in today.  Computers.  Phones.  Internet.  Baseball followed so adroitly that even the deepest of prospects are owned in NL/AL-only dynasty leagues.  It’s a wonder any of the farm kids even have and fun with this kind of scrutiny!

But even with all the stats, all the Moneyballs, all the Jonah Hills… We still get a 27-year-old Cuban starter, who had a 6.85 ERA and unreal 2.03 WHIP in 23.2 AAA innings, allow only 1 ER in his first two MLB starts (with a 70 then 58 Gamescore – see what I did with the title there?!).  Part of the fun of baseball – on any given day you just never know!  Remember when Phil Humber had a perfect game?  Exactly.

For just as hard Odrisamer Despaigne has thrust himself into the fantasy baseball lexicon, just as little is known.  I remember seeing his name when he was signed, but that’s about it.  Only 3 Ks in these two great starts, but hey – can’t hurt to take a deeper look.  Just look at what fellow countryman Roenis Elias is doing, and he had virtually no buzz either.  Cubans know what they’re doing on the bump!  So I picked Despaigne for this glorious Monday’s PP and broke down how he looked:

First Inning: Despaigne’s first pitch is a sinking 89 MPH fastball in there for strike one on Ender Inciarte.  I intentionally didn’t look up any of Despaigne’s scouting reports to go in this analysis fresh.  Next is a slider at 86 running in, another slider on the hands is pulled foul, then a very slow curveball at 66 almost catches the high outside corner, 2-2.  That almost looked in there – and pitch tracker called it a Eephus…  Fastball is fouled off, then another slider on the hands jams Inciarte, but it’s hit slow enough to get him safe at first for an infield single.  Very weak hit to start.  Gerardo Parra is first-pitch swinging, and hits a sinking fastball to left for an easy first out.  Paul Goldschmidt takes a fastball outside, another heater outside, then gets a sinking fastball in there with Inciarte stealing 2nd.  A nice looking curveball on the outside edge barely dips low – that’s the best break I’ve seen so far – then a perfect painting fastball on the outside edge gets strike 2.

Despaigne-Sinker-Fastball

Surprised Despaigne wanted to attack with first base open against Goldy.  Then again that curveball, and it’s even close but called ball four.  Man that looked really close, Bud Black is furious.  So runners first and second, and Miguel Montero looks at a fluttering curveball that’s off catcher Yasmani Grandal‘s glove, but Inciarte didn’t pick it up in time and the runners have to hold.  Some bad breaks, but a good break there – runners should be at 2nd and 3rd.  Slider is way inside, 2-0, then a fastball on the outside edge gets opposite field blasted for an RBI single.  Dbacks up 1-0.  Not a terrible pitch with some tail, but Montero stayed with it, and good thing Inciarte didn’t move up earlier or else it’d be 2-0.  Runners at the corners and Aaron Hill takes outside, again heater outside, then a fastball right down the middle gets popped up.  Huge out there in shallow center, keeping the runner at third.  And a lucky pop out too, that looked hittable.  A good first-pitch fastball is in there to Martin Prado, slider is chopped foul, another slider is horrifically outside and saved by Grandal to save a run, 1-2.  He had to hop up and fully extend to get that one.  Big save there, second time that second run didn’t score.  Curveball is low and outside, but then a fastball tailing a bit in the zone gets foul tipped for strike three.  Huge K there for a non-K guy.

Second Inning: After a rough first inning, Despaigne is inside with a slider to David Peralta, fastball is in there, another slider on the hands hit foul, then that slow breaking 66 MPH curveball is taken, and it fooled Peralta and probably home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott as well…

Despaigne-Curveball

…because where did that miss!  Despaigne is mad, and pitch tracker had it way in the zone too.  2-2 slider looks like it hits the upper inside corner, and again no call.  Pitch tracker has it nipping the zone.  Some tough calls, and the payoff pitch is way inside.  Rough walk.  Up is rookie Nick Ahmed who takes a slider low and outside, then a cutter is ripped foul about 20 feet to the right of the foul pole.  Ahmed is tiny too, surprised at that power.  Despaigne is outside, then gets one in there, then another fastball is grounded to second, and it’s sharp enough to get the double play.  That sinker was right down the middle, but hit to the right spot.  Two down, and opposing pitcher Mike Bolsinger takes strike one, and another sinker is slapped to short for an easy third out.

Third Inning: Fastball inside in the dirt to Inciarte to start the 3rd, another fastball is just outside, gets one in there, cutter on the hands is pulled foul, then either a mini-curveball or change-up in the inside of the zone sounds like it breaks Inciarte’s bat for an easy flyout to right.  Curveball is in there for strike one on Peralta – 66 on the gun – then fastball on the hands is flared out to left for an easy second out.  92 MPH fastball hits the outside of the zone to Goldy, good to see Despaigne ramp up the velo against the Dbacks only good (well, best) hitter, fastball at 90 is inside, slider low and in the dirt, then a nasty two-seamer darts across the zone in on Au Shizz’s hands for strike two.

Despaigne-2-Seam-Fastball

Nastiest pitch of the day.  Despaigne goes to that curveball, and it barely misses the upper outside zone 3-2.  Then a change-up – a tad lower and a tad further in – gets the called strike three to ring up Goldy.

Despaigne-Changeup

Great, great attack there against one of the best MLB hitters.

Fourth Inning: After a rocky start, Despaigne is cruising at 50 pitches, and Montero weakly grounds out the first-pitch sinker to second.  Great start.  Despaigne has a curveball slip out of his hand and it sails about 4 feet over Aaron Hill’s head.  Wow.  Then slider is low and outside and skips past Grandal for two straight wild ones.  But he corrects it and gets a fastball in there, slider way low, then cutter a good bit outside for a walk.  Unlike his first two BBs, that was a lost one.  Two-seamer is in there to Prado, then that groundball inducing sinker on the hands is pounded in the dirt for a tailor-made double play to end the inning.  Best way to erase walks!

Fifth Inning: Stop the presses!  The Padres pick up two runs of support.  So the first time protecting a lead, Despaigne tails a first-pitch two-seamer in there to Peralta, slider inside is yanked foul, but the 0-2 change-up is hung right down the middle and Peralta blasts it to right for a single.  Not a good pitch there.  That slow, slow curveball at 67 is in there for strike one on Ahmed, slider outside, cutter low is fouled back, slider is way low and outside – another good save by Grandal.  2-2 with the runner on the move Ahmed tips it foul, and then a sinker is laced to right, but Chris Denorfia got a great read and catches it on the slide.  Nice play there.  Bolsinger bunts the first offering foul, but the second bunt is perfect and moves Peralta to second base.  Two outs, runner at second, and Despaigne again starts with the slow curve and gets it in there.  He can throw all his pitches for strikes.  Inciarte takes a late swing at a change-up in the zone, then the 0-2 curveball at 73 is grounded to second for an easy end to the inning.

Sixth Inning: Still a 2-1 game and Despaigne’s 73rd pitch is a curveball fluttering outside to Parra, sinker is laced just foul down the first base line, cutter on the hands again ripped foul, then a curve on the outside corner is dribbled down the first base line, and Grandal makes a perfect play to get him out.  That was like a swinging bunt – good D.  Au Shizz takes a fastball outside, slider outside, 92 MPH fastball a bit high, then the 3-0 two-seamer is elevated for a four-pitch walk.  Despaigne was not giving Goldy anything to hit.  Sinker inside to Montero, fastball perfectly on the inside lower black evens it up, then the 1-1 curveball is hung a bit down the middle, and Montero ropes to first.  But Tommy Medica fields it cleanly, gets it to second, and it’s back to first for the third DP of the day.  Great defense from the Pads this inning.

Seventh Inning: Now at 83 pitches, Despaigne is outside, then tails that two-seamer in Hill’s backdoor (cough), slider dives low, a perfect slider on the outside corner is in there 2-2, curveball is poked foul, another curveball is way outside and in the dirt, then a sinker on the outside upper edge is lined for what could’ve easily been a double, but Medica full extension and in the air makes the catch.  Medica doing everything on D!  Slider is in there to Prado, curveball dips low, fastball high and outside, slider low and outside, 3-1.  Despaigne tails that two-seamer at 91 on the outside black for 3-2, and the payoff change-up is rocketed to left, but it’s caught in front of the track on the run by Seth Smith.  At Chase Field that might’ve been a homer.  Long live Petco!  First-pitch cutter to Peralta is yanked through the hole for a two out single.  So all three batters this inning have hit the ball hard.  Sinker is in the dirt to Ahmed, tails that two-seamer in there – that’s been his best and most consistent pitch today – cutter is outside, sinker is dribbled foul, then the 2-2 sinker is hit well opposite field between first and second for another two-out single.  It’s Ahmed’s first Major League hit, and it chases Despaigne out of the game at 102 pitches.  But the 2-1 score holds for Despiagne’s second win.

Final Line:  W  6.2 IP  102 Pitches (59 Strikes)  1 ER  5 Hits  4 Walks  2 K  Gamescore: 58  Gamescore+: 54.8

Final Analysis: Despaigne has some pretty good stuff that moves each and every other way across, and in, and down the strike zone.  This might be a silly comparison, but his stuff is almost like a knuckleballer in that is goes in every direction at some various speeds.  Of course, Despaigne gets to 92, but hopefully you get what I mean.  Because of the lack of Ks and hard hit balls – especially in the 7th – he scored much lower with his Gamescore+, exactly how the stat was intended.

Throwing from various arm slots at all sorts of different speeds, Despaigne is the quintessential control/pitch to contact hurler.  Fastball variants of the sinker, two-seamer and cutter ranged from 87-92.  That two-seamer had some great tail at times as in the third GIF above.  The sinker could also paint as in the first GIF.  Despaigne’s slider at 83ish-85 was used about as much as his curveball, that varied wildly from 66-75.  The slider was solid with decent break to throw in on the hands of lefties, but he didn’t use it as much against righties.  The curveball was used a lot to try and get strike one taking, but also as a high and outside location after three or four inside.  Late in the counts, he’s hoping it’s taken for strike three – not hacked on.  He also mixed in a few change-ups around 75ish, which didn’t do much to work off the fastball.  The one that got Goldy looking just fell in with Au Shizz looking for something else.  As the numbers thus far suggest, he’s not gonna be a K guy with this arsenal.

Two starts in, two wins, and an ERA under 1.  I don’t think even the Despaigne family saw this coming.  But he’s got good stuff that moves everywhere to draw contact – on top of pitching in Petco.  He’s never going to get the Ks, but he’s got enough variance in pitch selection, speed, and arm slots to be a backend starter in the Majors for a while.  But what does that mean for fantasy?  Well, he’s certainly NL-only ownable (and I’m sure was picked up either right before or right after his debut), but he’s not a top 100 Roto option.  No Ks and no real upside.  Points leagues should have some interest though, especially in home starts.   All that said, that 7th inning was brutal.  Two very hard hit outs, then two hard hit singles.  Seemed like the DBacks were finally catching on, and that abhorrent AAA line gets back into your memory.  For home starts in good matchups against guys who have never seen him before – he indeed is worth a spot-start look.  Unfortunately, his next start is home against the Giants (who he faced in his debut) and I don’t feel great about him in a second turn this early.  Then if the schedule holds, he’s up at the Dodgers – don’t love that – but mid-July home against the Mets.  Most leagues should be interested in that one.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto, and from this point to the end of season – green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
3 Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
4 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
5 Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
6 Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
7 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
8 Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
9 Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
10 Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
11 Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
12 Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
13 Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
14 David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
15 Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
16 Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
17 Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
18 Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
19 Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
20 Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
21 Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
22 Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
23 Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
24 Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
25 Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
26 Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
27 Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
28 Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
29 James Shields, Kansas City Royals
30 Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
31 Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
32 Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
33 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
34 Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
35 Andrew Heaney, Miami Marlins
36 Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
37 Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
38 Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
39 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
40 Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
41 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
42 Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
43 John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
44 Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
45 Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
46 Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs
47 Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
48 Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
49 Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
50 Jon Niese, New York Mets
51 Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
52 Jesse Chavez, Oakland Athletics
53 Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
54 Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
55 Zach Wheeler, New York Mets
56 Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
57 Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
58 C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
59 Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
60 Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
61 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
62 Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
63 Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
64 Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
65 Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds
66 Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
67 Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
68 Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
69 Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins
70 Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
71 Rubby De La Rosa, Boston Red Sox
72 Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
73 Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
74 Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
75 Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
76 Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
77 Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
78 Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
79 Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
80 Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
81 Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs
82 Roenis Elias, Seattle Mariners
83 Vance Worley, Pittsburgh Pirates
84 R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
85 Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
86 Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers
87 A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
88 Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins
89 Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
90 Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
91 Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
92 Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
93 Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox
94 Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
95 Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
96 Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
97 Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves
98 Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers
99 Chase Anderson, Arizona Diamondbacks
100 Chase Whitley, New York Yankees

Dropped Out: n/a

  • Don’t give up on Heaney.  Absolutely cruised and had about as unlucky a start as a guy can have.  I watched his whole outing yesterday, and he gave up 7 singles (out of 8 hits) – 6 ground balls with only one hit really hard.  One was a bunt single that if Casey McGehee fields cleanly is an out.  The sixth inning was ridiculous – two outs then ground ball single, the only fly ball single was a broken bat flare by Cespedes, then Donaldson a ground ball single, then first-pitch home run by quad A Nate Frieman.  Easily could’ve been out of the inning three times over.  And he had a 4:0 K:BB in that start against the A’s (already one of the league’s best lineups) who lead the Majors in bases on balls by 40!  Sure a little ranty, but wanted a long answer on why Heaney is not going anywhere in my ranks.  One final thought – he stayed composed, and was talking with the other Marlins starters right away instead of sulking/pulling a Mejia.  I’m gonna make the rest of my quick hitters… quicker…
  • Porcello!
  • Alex Wood looked awesome.
  • Of course I mention how C.J. Wilson had given up 76 hits in 99.2 innings last week, and since then 16 hits in 8.2.  I hate fantasy baseball sometimes…
  • I didn’t move him up dramatically, but Jonathon Niese hasn’t given up more than 3 ERs in a game the whole season!  Then again, only one of his 16 starts had 0 ER.  He doesn’t K much and has limited upside, but that’s pretty amazing.  Dare I say… amazin’.
  • The quote from Keuchel about his wrist and he’s scared because he’s never gone through a wrist injury scares me as well.  Still off the two straight 4 walk games and uncertain about his health.  Eesh…
  • Jake Arrieta is this week’s big riser.  I should’ve bought in earlier – he has good stuff, but we’ve never seen anything close to this from him.  He should be next week’s I’m thinking…
  • I hate Phil Hughes so much.  Of course, now that I’ve dropped him again in several leagues, he’ll run off four straight scoreless starts.  Just so hittable, yet only when I have him on my teams…
  • Lay out the red carpet for Taijuan Walker!
  • Very little movement on Tim Lincecum.  I think I might be able to throw a quality start against the Padres…
  • For the first time this year, I haven’t added/dropped anyone.  J.A. Happ?  Eh.  Charlie Morton? More eh.  Jesse Hahn is close; I wish I knew the outcome of today’s start against the Reds.  If it’s a good one, he’d get up into the 80s pretty easy, but I’m still waiting it out.  I’ve never seen him pitch either, so I’m going to try and tune in especially since my Brew Crew are off.

Thoughts on Mr. Spellcheck?  I’m sure I’ve got a few boo-boos in your mind in the rankings as well, so as always, shoot your comments below and may your ERAs and WHIPs be microscopic!

From Around The Web

  1. mookieecmon says:
    (link)

    leakke a sstrreamm vs padres toomorrow?

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @mookieecmon: If a bear shits in the woods…

  2. BlameItOnHoffman says:
    (link)

    Hey there, which side would you take? Jesse Chavez and Alex Rios for Strasburg

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @BlameItOnHoffman: Whewwww very close, all things equal probably Strasburg since Rios isn’t giving any power, and a horrible 13 for 21 on SB. Probably not gonna steal as much either.

      • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: that’s only 2 steals (14.7 total actually so 1.7) away from SOP for when a guy should be stealing or not, the 70% margin (talked about ad infinitum in sabr literature)

  3. Clint says:
    (link)

    You like Carlos Martinez JB? I lost Wacha and have filling in with Keuchel and Smyly at my RP spot in my h2h pts league but was wondering if C-Mart may be the better grab, given Grey’s Buy suggestions and the emoticon’s implosion recently.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Clint: I just can’t bring myself to rank him because I think he’s out as soon as Wacha is back – which I am optimistically thinking isn’t months away. I’m still gonna stick with Smyly over Cmart ROS since Smyly I think is locked in the rotation. Also, CMart can’t pitch deep into games which hurts him a lot in Pts.

  4. Clint says:
    (link)

    You like Carlos Martinez JB? I lost Wacha and have filling in with Keuchel and Smyly at my RP spot in my h2h pts league but was wondering if C-Mart may be the better grab, given Grey’s Buy suggestions and the emoticon’s implosion recently.

  5. Zar says:
    (link)

    I’m sorry JB for I have strayed! I picked up Cain for Heaney :(.

    If he clears waivers, I might pick him up again, not sure who I’d drop. I feel like my rotation is decent, and I should stop tinkering. I got GioG, Anibal, Gray, keuchel, Buehrle, Hudson, Cain, and lincecum. Stand pat or drop someone when Heaney clears?

    How about a mini profile on a closer that might soon lose their job? I felt that romo was having some bad luck early in his slide, but it persisted. A profile might help illuminate whether he’s unlucky or just sucky.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Zar: Haha, I really can’t fault that. Cain off a good start with obviously a great career track record, but I still like Heaney more ROS – close though. Def would drop Lincecum for Heaney. Maybe hold Lincecum for his next Padres start which I think is this week, then I would make the move. Haha, problem with closers is a profile is such a small sample. Ya know, 15-20 pitches in only an inning is tough to gauge, maybe I’ ask Smokey and see if we can do an article crossover :)

      • Zar says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Yeah I’m looking for the perfect game against the Padres. In fact, I’m hoping for 3 of them, one each from Lincecum, Cain, and Hudson. That will be a big boost to my team.

        I’m actually surprised at how lucky Lincecum has been in terms of his match-ups this year. He gets the Padres, Mets, the Cubs, the Twins…He somehow avoids the Reds (got shelled by them once), the Rockies, and only got the Dbacks once I think? He’s kinda like a streamer who sits on your team because the next start looks so good….

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Zar: Haha go Giants SP! Wow, yeah he has a hell of a schedule, but I still think at least one of those he gets hit hard. Kinda who he is.

  6. Cram It says:
    (link)

    I feel pathetic trading for a guy I dropped, but I do love Alex Wood. Would you trade any of these OF’s for him and in what order? Thanks brah.

    Josh Hamilton, Dickerson, Alex Gordon, Polanco,

    Porcello! Ha.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Whewww, I think I would Dickseron but that’s probably it. I know C-Dick has been awesome, but Cargo will be back and shuffle PT (along with Cuddyer). Gordon I might is desperate for SP, but I love Gordon/love the consistency. Porcello indeed!

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Wasn’t expecting that! So thanks for putting things in perspective.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Cram It: Any time man!

  7. Gonzo_The_Great says:
    (link)

    This town’s not big enough for two under-achieving young Marlin pitchers on my team. I take it you’d drop Eovaldi over Heaney?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Gonzo_The_Great: Haha, yup and not too close. Eovaldi is not getting the Ks and the last few starts I’ve watched of him, his breaking stuff is not nearly as good as early in the year. Heaney I think kills him in Ks and WHIP from this point forward.

  8. Jack says:
    (link)

    JBG,
    Need to stream 3 pitchers in the up coming week to have a chance in my H2H matchup – no more than one a day. SON estimates given $ ERA WHIP K:

    Mon.
    Duffy @Min (Pino) 10.5 3.44 1.35 5.5
    Walker @ Hou (McHugh) 5.6 4.32 1.43 6.0
    Tues.
    Kennedy vCin (Leake) 17.7 3.18 1.13 6.0
    Leake @SD (kennedy) 10.5 3.54 1.23 5.0
    Alvarez vPHI (Burnett) 7.9 3.41 1.25 3.9
    Wed.
    Morton vARI (Anderson 8.9 3.34 1.25 4.0
    Thurs.
    Sanitago vHou (Keuchel) 10.8 3.74 1.31 5.7
    Fri.
    Cain @SD (Stults) 12.4 3.64 1.24 5.3
    Sat.
    Colon vTex(Saunders) 12.1 3.55 1.13 4.3
    Sun.
    Lincecum @SD(Hahn) 11.2 3.85 1.29 6.3

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jack: Aight, so I’m going Duffy tonight, Leake tomorrow, and Lincecum Sunday. The Lincecum one is tough bc I think the Padres bounce back a little. Cain got hit hard by the Pads last time out or he’d be close, but those are my 3. Ian Kennedy’s high SON I’m guessing is for the home start, but he hasn’t been as sharp lately and got hit hard by CIN last time out vs. them.

  9. Mike says:
    (link)

    No movement for Alex Cobb? He’s been pretty subpar since coming off the DL, but you seem to still be keeping the faith.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Yeah I am, and he’s a guy I looked pretty hard into. FIP xFIP both a good bit under his ERA showing he should be better, BABIP about right, velocity is actually up a little bit, and the big one is his line drive rate is way down at 15.9% vs. 21.7% last year. It’s a variable stat, but indicates he hasn’t been hit too hard. I think he’s gonna be good to go for the 2nd half. Another big change is his 69.7% Left on base vs. 81.4% last year, so he’s just giving up hits at inopportune times. I think it all normalizes.

  10. gareth says:
    (link)

    Start Archer@ NYY versus phelps tonight?

    I’m trying to be a little more selective with my starts as the rcl im in has a games started limit. I’m at 100 of 180. .

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @gareth: Even with being a little more selective, I would roll Archer out there – only Ellsbury has hit him hard on the Yanks and Archer has been pretty great the past 8 starts even with the underwhelming game vs. PIT.

  11. gareth says:
    (link)

    Start Archer@ NYY versus phelps tonight?

    I’m trying to be a little more selective with my starts as the rcl im in has a games started limit. I’m at 100 of 180. .

  12. Crazy old guy babbling in the corner says:
    (link)

    Hey JB, know bullpens are Smokey’s domain, but I’ve come to trust your knowledge of all facets of pitching… How you rank these guys in a holds league: Ziegler, Brad Wilson, Benoit, Walden, Joba. Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Crazy old guy babbling in the corner: Haha thanks man! I think Ziegler is the clear #1. I’m guessing Brian Wilson right? :) A little worried about Benoit since he could be traded and lose some holds wherever he ends up. So I think I’m going Ziegler, Walden, Joba, Wilson (a little health concern there), Benoit (uncertain role if traded – should still get holds but ya never know). Any time!

      • Crazy old guy babbling in the corner says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Brian, brad, same difference. There’s so many guys in the dodgers pen, I’m sure there’s one of each. :). Thanks!

  13. gareth says:
    (link)

    My SP Pitchers are Sale, Price, Lester, Cain, Hudson and Archer.

    If I had to drop one, who’d you choose?

    Also – who is the best one to trade and what would be a good hitting return (preferably 3b)?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @gareth: Uggghhhhh I don’t want to drop any! It’s between the Giants for me, and probably would be Cain if I had to. Best to trade… probably Hudson if you can get full value, Lester would be 2nd option. Either for Frazier? I’d prob do that, I believe in Frazier keeping it up.

  14. malen says:
    (link)

    Trying to figure out my last starter for the week between Lynn, C.J. Wilson and Taijuan. Leaning toward Lynn, Walker is the great unknown, Wilson annoyed me last week but has otherwise been dependable… just thinking out loud. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @malen: Close one… I think I go Lynn too even though he can lay one hell of a stinker when off. BUt I think he bounces back

  15. Chris says:
    (link)

    Check out the lady in pink, two rows back, behind the Hankook sign in the first gif. Her oldest son is really giving her the business and she’s just sitting there with no emotion. He’s like “F U mom!” and she’s like “I wish you had been a girl.” Then her son mercifully decides to watch the game somewhere else and she’s just eating popcorn until she notices the lady’s huge red hat in the 2nd gif. “Was she wearing that last inning? Is this the Kentucky Derby? That thing looks ridiculous! Mmm, this kettle corn is delicious!” I think she decides from that point out that she should just stare straight ahead, munch on her tasty popcorn, and hope that her son gets hit in the head by a foul ball.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Hahahaha. He nods in 1 and is like, ” F U TOO!” In 2, she legit is looking right at that unsightly hat. “AT LEAST I CAN EAT MY TROUBLES AWAY!” Or maybe the mom is thinking she should inquire into purchasing the hat to protect her ungrateful son from injury. “He might be a dick, but at least I should protect him”. But after that whole line of thought, she says F it, and eats more popcorn. In 3 and 4 she’s just pensively sitting there… Eating…

  16. The Thumb says:
    (link)

    With Oscar coming off my NA I have a free spot. Who’s the best pitcher to stash? Bundy?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @The Thumb: Hard to know without knowing who’s out there, what’s tough with Bundy is the O’s already have a full rotation. Jimmy Nelson? But Estrada is pitching better… I still really like Paxton if avail.

      • The Thumb says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: tbh my league is pretty lame. Meyer and Syndergaard are the only real good SP prospects being stashed. I have Paxton on my DL. Both Nelson and Bundy available.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @The Thumb: Yeah I’d rather Nelson over Bundy, I think Nelson is going to be a starter when called up if a spot opens up. Would take a lot of injuries for Bundy to be in the rotation.

  17. ebudz says:
    (link)

    Hey JB, I’m reaally considering dropping Heaney for Leake. What do you think I should do?

    12 Team H2H Yahoo Standard:
    (2) SP: Bumgarner, Homer Bailey
    (2) RP: K-Rod, Belisario
    (4) P: Betances, Cobb, Kluber, A. Wood
    Bench: (Chavez, T. Walker, Heaney)

    Available SP Pitching: Stroman, Leake, Bauer, C. Martinez, Hahn, Despaigne, Gausman, Eovaldi, Odorizzi, Duffy, Kuroda, Estrada, Tillman, Jimenez, Hutchinson J. De La Rosa, Morton, McCarthy, Vogelsong, H. Santiago, Chen, Miley

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @ebudz: Don’t do it! I know Leake is off a good game, and gets the Pads next… That is working for Leake, but hold Heaney. I think Belisario is droppable. He’d be who I lose for Leake. Duffy/Odorizzi are both worth owning, but no one I would drop for them. If Leake jacks it up vs. SD, you can drop him for one of those.

      • ebudz says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Ahh I’m an idiot! Belisario is not on my roster anymore! I dropped him for McGee last week thanks to your guidance (and Grey’s) .. I really want to play Leake vs. the Pads tomorrow and that’s why dropping Heaney is so tempting!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @ebudz: Well it is worth noting that Heaney has started a little rocky and you can prob pick him back up. A little risky, but I doubt anyone in your league will be all over him.

  18. Dulcimer says:
    (link)

    Got an offer. Trade my puig/cano for Trout? Giving up too much for trout?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Dulcimer: Whewwww… Do you have a good 2b option? If a shallower league, yeah I’d prob do it and get Trout

  19. Chris says:
    (link)

    Good Stuff JB,

    I need to make some pick ups these are my needs and whats available on the wire.

    1. 2nd base: Current Aviles-Available-Valbuena-Cubs 2nd and 3rd-Ackley and Forsythe

    Stay put with Aviles or pick someone up and who if you think I should?

    2. SP-Current players I could drop-Whitley-Dice K-Deduno (he’s gone for sure)

    Current pitchers to pick up: Happ-Tomlin- Worley- Feldman-Also I only have Mcgee as a closer right now, should I pick up Joe Smith and drop a starter?

    Thanks for any help!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Thanks man! TBH – not huge on any of those options so prob sticking with Aviles. 2 – Yeah I’d drop all three SP. I’d get Smith for sure, then probably Worley and Tomlin. Tomlin I’m not huge on, but that huge game over the weekend is worth the upside grab. Any time!

  20. Jon says:
    (link)

    Great writeup, as always! Any word on how long Gausman will be in the minors? Worried they’ll keep doing this to him, or will he stick sooner rather than later?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jon: Thanks man! I think he’s going to come back up, they’re just jacking us around for a roster spot. I think he’ll stick, but be inconsistent

  21. GG says:
    (link)

    Do you like Dylan Bundy in a dynasty format assuming you don’t need the IPs this season?

    Are there any other minor league pitching prospects you would rather stash long-term over Bundy?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @GG: Yeah I do. Still has a very bright future. Ummm Syndergaard is still close despite struggling in AAA (PCL though), Henry Owens is interesting for BOS. I think I might Archie Bradley over Bundy though – NL vs. AL, but that’s the only one I can think of.

  22. J Boy says:
    (link)

    Been offered Arrieta/R.Zimmerman for Wacha in a 14 team roto keeper – which side do you like?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @J Boy: Hmmm, how long can you keep guys? I think it depends on your 3B need and how much you’re playing for this year – going for it now I think I’d have to take it. Arrieta looking unreal tonight.

      • J Boy says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: I’d have Wacha for 4 more seasons after this one but I’m worried the shoulder thing could become an issue. I have Aramis at 3B but would probably slot Zimm into Util. It’d def be a go for it type deal and I still have Felix, Strasburg and Cliff Lee when he comes back. Obviously limited info, but what do you think?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @J Boy: Whewww, can you keep Arrieta a while too, and cheaply? If so I think I pull the trigger.

  23. AMolnar says:
    (link)

    I know you’re a hater of Tyson Ross but one day I think you gotta start liking the guy. The walks were always an issue and the elephant in the room but he has them under control. His stuff is good and his numbers are proving it. His underlying numbers don’t say anything is going to change. Fip – good xFip – good Siera – good. I just can’t see myself selling him. BTW my staff is first in WHIP AND ERA because of these write ups and … well my own research. I bought into Arrieta 6 starts ago and its obviously worked out marvelously. I can’t even see myself trading him. Im a Reds fan and I watched that game and he baffled every hitter including Joey who is a tough cookie trying to get to swing out of the strike zone. Here’s my pitching squad:

    Kershaw, Wacha, Liriano, Stroman, Heaney, Tyson Ross, Gray, Arrieta, Hutchison, Burnett, Carlos Martinez, and Jose Fernandez. Plus I have HOlland, Robertson, and Britton as my closers for saves.

    The surprise from all of this is I’m 3rd last in Wins and 3rd last in K’s but I’m closing the gap fast as everyone is pitching well right now.

    Thanks again for the write-up!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @AMolnar: Well, glad I could somewhat help! Ross still has a 1.27 WHIP. That’s not very good. Velo is down from last year, but yes, he’s been better than I expected. I think his WHIP will still be pretty bad, ERA goes up a shade, K rate goes down a shade and that equals a 50ish pitcher. Arrieta was a good grab though! A few weeks ago I said he was worth the short-term add, and my lack of love in rankings was because I’m assessing ROS. But I’m obviously all in now.

      Wow – 3rd to last in Ks with those guys?! That’s kinda weird haha… But yeah you should be golden, thank for stopping by!

  24. JoeyBats says:
    (link)

    Should I drop any of these guys for Despaigne?

    Bonifacio, Neil Walker, Hutchinson, Paxton, Shoemaker, Duffy or McHugh?

    12 team H2H league

    Pitching categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP and L

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @JoeyBats: I think I would drop either Bonifacio or Shoemaker. Whichever side you have more depth, pitching or hitter.

  25. tomthebod says:
    (link)

    @JB Gilpin: What do you make of Mat Latos’ dip in velocity (down 2-3 mph since last season)? Early season rust or sell high candidate?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @tomthebod: I think early season rust. Coming off a few surgeries, usually a second half guy, and looked good tonight (given vs. pitiful Padres). I probably wouldn’t sell high – I think I have him ranked pretty high vs. other rankings out there on the interweb.

      • Tomthebod says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Cool, thanks. Yeah, I’ve been watching the game and he did look pretty good tonight. I thought I would for sure get a win out of him going against the padres.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Tomthebod: Yeah I would’ve thought so too, Hahn was K-ing everyone! I should’ve ranked Hahn, was still skeptical, he’ll make it in there somewhere next week.

  26. Joe says:
    (link)

    JB would you trade jean segura and Jason hammel for alex cobb?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Joe: That seems a little steep for me. I know Siggy has struggled and looks like he’s gonna be stuck in the bottom of the order, but I think he improves. Also, I like Hammel a lot, so I’d ask for more or part with someone lesser than Siggy.

      • Joe says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Jason hammel or alex cobb in a one or one trade? Who you like

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Joe: I’d take Cobb there. Think he’s fine, more upside.

  27. Henry says:
    (link)

    Hey, great post as always!

    Curious about your thoughts on this trade. My pitching is currently Madbum, Hudson, Stroman, Walker, Wood, Shields, and a streamer spot. 12 team h2h that counts quality starts.

    Someone offered me their Sale for my J. Upton and Hudson. Do you think my staff needs another ace? or should I keep the hitting. I would replace J. Upton with either Cole Calhoun, Taveras, Mookie, or Austin Jackson.

    • Henry says:
      (link)

      @Henry:

      Also considering Donaldson + Shields for Felix, and I have Frazier to fill the 3b spot.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Henry: Thanks man! Whewwwww that one is very close. I love Kole Calhoun and Taveras getting called up helps your depth, I think I might do that actually. Ohhhh I like the Felix one better though, since you have a 3B fill in

  28. Bacon says:
    (link)

    This has become my go to site. Keep up the good work.

    Trade question: Should I trade Victor Martinez for Altuve?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Bacon: Awesome, thanks man! Glad to have ya! That trade is really tough, but I have more faith Altuve continues the steals than V Mart the power (to get to 40 HR would be crazy, and he’s a little banged up). If you need the steals, yeah I’d do it.

  29. Crazy old guy babbling in the corner says:
    (link)

    No love for Hahn? I don’t even see him on your rankings…maybe I’m blind, happens at my age

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Crazy old guy babbling in the corner: Yeah, he’ll be in next week, I wanted to see one more start and he delivered last night – one night too late! Real quick re-assessment… 85-87? Somewhere in there

  30. GG says:
    (link)

    Thanks JB for the great write-up as always!

    Of the following 9 SPs which 4 or 5 would you keep (in this moment, barring injury, blowup or breakout of course). Price shown is adjusted for next year’s salary. This is kind of the relative order I see them at.

    Tanaka $28
    Minor $6
    Archer $4
    A.Wood $4
    Bundy $4
    Heaney $4
    Cueto $4
    Cole $24
    Darvish $46

    Darvish so low b/c we’ve got a $200 budget and the luxury tax is stiff (4 USD to 1 fantasy dollar). Cole is down there b/c his cost vs relative value of the guys above him.

    I’m looking to deal a non-essential arm that I’m not planning to keep. Kind of thinking Cueto and/or Cole (once his stock rises) fit the bill. Although if Cueto can survive the full season injury free, he would be a great keeper at $4 for 2015. I dunno, lots of good options, my head is exploding. what do you think?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @GG: Any time, thanks man! Good question. Right off the bat, Mike Minor is killin me! I still have faith though… I think you gotta keep Cueto unless floored with a deal. Dravish seems like a perfect guy to trade now to a team desperate for pitching near the top of the standings. I like Heaney a lot… Man tough to pick 5! I like your top 7 the best, Bundy maybe to whittle it to 6 just because he needs a for sure rotation spot to get open for next year. After that I just can’t see losing any, would want to see if Minor can have the 2nd half I think he should.

  31. Peter Nincompoop says:
    (link)

    Excellent write-up per usual. I dealt V-Mart, Davis, Kipnis and Richards for Rizzo and Teheran in my H2H 10-Team Keeper league. This leaves me with choosing four keepers out of McCutchen, Harper, Cargo, Rizzo, Machado and Arenado. First three are no-brainers, but the last three are though especially the Rizzo/Machado argument. Which way would you lean?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Peter Nincompoop: Thanks man! I think I’m leaning Rizzo. I know 3B is a shallower position, but with how well Rizzo is hitting against lefties now, I’m kinda all in on him.

  32. Cram It says:
    (link)

    Puig and Allen Craig or Josh Hamilton/Morse/Zobrist?

    Left side right?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Yup I would agree!

  33. Thomas says:
    (link)

    Why the unwavering Zack Wheeler love for this season?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Thomas: Well I haven’t ever had him that high… Upside is still there and these are for Roto – K/9 in NL, good park, upside, easily a 50ish pitcher still there ROS.

  34. Mike says:
    (link)

    JB,

    I have been trying to tune up my rosters, but I may have lost my mind today.

    Team 1 – Traded Jon Lester and Huston Street for Masahiro Tanaka.

    Team 2 – Traded Hyun-Jin Ryu and Huston Street for Madison Bumgarner.

    In both cases, my reasoning was, Street will be a setup man on another team before the end of July, and I can find a decent closer or even Benoit on the wire.

    You can tell me now – did I screw up?

    Thanks…

    Mike.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Haha, you are still sane my man! Team 1 = AWESOME! love it. Team 2 = equally awesome. Totally agree selling Street now is a great move. You did very well!

      • Mike says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the sanity check JB! Mike.

  35. Achilles says:
    (link)

    So I was just offered Mike Minor for Jason Hammel in a 10-team, H2H categories league with QS instead of W. Am I overthinking this offer? I feel like Minor is definitely a buy low, while Hammel is a sell high (although he has FIP of 3.11 and SIERA of 3.18 compared to 4.49 and 3.56 for Minor, respectively).

    My other SP are: C. Sale, C. Hamels, S. Gray, A. Wood, D. Fister, C. Kluber, and D. Holland on the DL. What should I do? Thanks boss.

  36. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    guessing you don’t agree with Grey with my
    wright and porcello for zimmerman (or sale if i’m lucky)? this is 16 team H2H and i don’t need 3 bench bats and already have frazier/arenado. 3 utils, but i don’t want to drop cron, my only pujols backup, nor dickerson/rajai/ozuna/hill (scooter’s backup for lefty days), nor do i want to drop a SP or one of my closers (koji/putnam/mejia (only closer that counts as SP in espn, so i’m only owner that can start 3 closers a day in this league (2 RP slots))). SP has been weakness all year. also it’s keep 8 per year league and whichever SP i get would be my 8th keeper (wright used to be) and 2nd SP along with Anibal.
    2. also i’m about to drop somebody to stream, Grey says drop McHugh before Keuchel (i guess you’d disagree), this is in 10 teamer with deep benches.

Comments are closed.