Domonic Brown, 2011 Fantasy Outlook
November 23, 2010
Category: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rookies
Let’s start with what I said a few months ago, “This year in the minors Domonic Brown had a line of 65/20/68/.327/17 and .391/.589/.980. Let’s recap, whoa/wow/nice/yum-yum/don’t mind if I do and yowsers/that’s lovely/yowsersthat’slovely. To break that down for the people who skimmed the first two sentences, he has 20/20 potential with plate discipline. It’s the fantasy baseball equivalent to: “I don’t think this glazed donut can get any better.” “How about we sprinkle bacon on it?” Drool. By my estimation (and Keith Law’s), he’s the number one prospect in the minors. (Desmond Jennings is a close 2nd in my book that was rejected by Simon & Schuster.)” And that’s me quoting me! First off, Jennings is now one, according to me, and Brown is two for 2011. Don’t ask me how it changed. It just did, okay? Well, actually, I’ll explain how it changed. Preemptive, you’re welcome. Speed translates easier than power. Power, on youngsters, doesn’t always immediately appear. Beyond 2011, I could see Brown leapfrogging Jennings to have more value in fantasy. Shoot, he can have more value in 2011, but he’s not safer. So what can we expect for Domonic Brown in 2011 fantasy baseball?
Once Jayson Werth’s out of Philly (and taking a probable fantasy hit) or Raul Ibanez is tossed blindfolded into the newly-constructed Citizens Flank Octagon, Brown’s the man to man a spot in the outfield. He’ll probably slot somewhere in the lower half of the lineup and be given the rope to succeed or fail depending on how badly his fantasy owners need him to produce.* (*There’s no evidence that his fantasy owners hopes and dreams have anything to do with Brown’s potential success rate. In fact, some studies that don’t actually exist show that the more fantasy owners want something to happen the less likely it will.) Brown could be Krispie Young with a better average next year. More likely, he’ll look a lot like The Big FraGu with a better average. The upside for more is there, obviously. I’d put his line at 55/12/70/.290/14 if I were in a conservative mood. Absolutely ownable in mixed leagues, just maybe not as exciting as you might think. In keepers, he’s a must own or tums now, if you’re an anagrammatist or having indigestion.
November 23rd, 2010 at 12:31 am
” I don’t think this glazed donut can get any better . ”
one of you best lines , ever !
very amusing article , throughout .
especially the part about steve .
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November 23rd, 2010 at 1:16 am
@big o: I don’t see the word ‘awesome’ anywhere.
Grey – Keith Law called. Said he predicted Brown’s no.1 ranking for 2011 – in 1995.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 1:30 am
@Steve:
what are your thoughts on vernon wells vs carlos quentin ?
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November 23rd, 2010 at 7:06 am
Grey, who do you prefer from the Washington Middle infield? Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa?
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November 23rd, 2010 at 7:44 am
V-Mart apparently close to a deal with Tigers.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 7:45 am
@GopherDay: say whaaa?
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@big o: Thanks!
@Steve: Ha!
@GopherDay: Desmond
@GopherDay: Thanks for the heads up!
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November 23rd, 2010 at 8:23 am
V-Mart has signed with the Tigers.
“He also logged 904 innings behind the plate, a number that should decrease in Detroit due to the presence of Alex Avila.”
More DHing and occasional innings at first than catching which should be good for his value.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 8:30 am
Victor Martinez
Derrek Lee
Curtis Granderson
Nelson Cruz
Mike Stanton
CC Sabathia
Jonathan Papelbon
David Aardsma
Grey, 16 team 5X5 ROTO league, out of those players which 5 keepers would you pick? We keep 5 players every year with no restrictions or anything.
I’m thinking V-Mart, CC, and Cruz are the no brainers from that group. For the other two slots, do I go with Stanton for his upside? Papelbon because its a deep 16 team league? Grandy, hoping for a bounce back? Lee, for lack of an infield?
Insight is greatly appreciated.
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@GopherDay: Thanks for the heads up!
@GopherDay: The three you said and Stanton and Grandy.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 10:17 am
@big o: Don’t have particularly strong feelings for either of ‘em, but CQ is the more likely to be a bit undervalued so I guess I’d go with him.
Grey?
Elsewhere – Huff gets 2 years, 22 mill. Sheesh.
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@Steve: Not surprising coming from the Giants. Glad I didn’t write that Brandon Belt post.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 10:28 am
@Grey: Wells v CQ?
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@Steve: CQ… Old habits yadda yadda.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 10:50 am
@Grey: I still wouldn’t writing him, Belt, completely off.
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@Stephen: Not yet, of course not. Need to see how he works into the playing time picture though.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 11:21 am
Hamilton wins AL MVP.
Murray Chass voted for Ty Cobb.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 11:21 am
Caveat on speed translating at MLB level quicker than power, provided they can get on base.
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@Steve: Ha!
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@James: Fair point.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Quick keeper question:
$20 Cliff Lee
or
$5 Domonic Brown
5×5, $260 cap
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@in: In a bubble, Lee.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 12:29 pm
@Grey: Apparently the Giants were only matching what another team was prepared to offer.
I look forward to taking him in the 4th round, next year.
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@Steve: Ha… Is it weird that I just listened to Ram Jam’s Black Betty 17 times in a row and am not done yet?
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November 23rd, 2010 at 2:51 pm
@Steve: Huff at 10Mil per, + a $2 mil buy-out is pretty fair in this arket, especially factoring in a reward for the #7 MVP vote-getter’s contribution to a franchise that has never won a WS (50+ years) in its current location.
And, as Steve pointed out, it sounds like it was market value, for once.
Also, about Belt: despite Posey’s delayed introduction, the Giants are not all that concerned about super@, etc., if Belt is ready, Huff will move to LF and Belt will play.
Doesn’t sound all that good for Pat the Bat, though. SF ladies say
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November 23rd, 2010 at 2:53 pm
wow, so many typos: “Market,” “HAD never won a WS”, “Super 2″
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November 23rd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
@Grey: Not weird. Knock yourself out.
If you haven’t already.
@MikeMoustaches: Fair call – it does seem reasonable for the year he’s just had. Be interesting to see if we’re still saying the same thing this time next year.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 3:20 pm
In re # 21 in (above):
Lee-Lee-Lee!
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November 23rd, 2010 at 3:33 pm
@Grey: Maybe throw in a little Alabamaroke to this to spice up your Black Betty: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9_Gvbn2pFs
(seriously, this is worth clicking).
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@royce!: That’s a few different kinds of awesome.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 3:50 pm
@royce!: @Grey: Dude looked like a serial killer.
Think it was the glasses.
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@Steve: Or he looked like Milton from Office Space.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 4:12 pm
@Grey: Thanks to Google, I know what you mean. A dead-ringer.
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@Steve: You’ve never seen Office Space? Oh, Steve, you gotta rent it.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 4:23 pm
@Grey: It’s really that good?
But it has Jennifer Aniston in it.
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@Steve: Yeah, but it’s Mike Judge. It’s the best move Aniston was ever in and she’s barely in it. They just give her co-star billing to try and sell the movie.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 4:48 pm
“In fact, some studies that don’t actually exist show that the more fantasy owners want something to happen the less likely it will.” Grey’s Law of Fantasy, a derivation of Murphy’s Law. So True! And great stuff!
Any thoughts on Carlos Zambrano for next year?
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@Paulie Allnuts: Could be a solid number three fantasy starter, I worry about his health though.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 4:52 pm
@Grey: You sound like his Jewish mother.
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@Steve: I thought I sounded a bit like Dawn Weiner in Welcome to the Dollhouse when I was like, “Oh, Steve, you just gotta rent it.”
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November 23rd, 2010 at 4:57 pm
@Grey: It did seem kinda like girlish excitement, but I just figured you really liked the movie .
Either that, or you wrote it (emoticon).
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***Everyone should learn this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRBLmogRL4c
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November 23rd, 2010 at 5:14 pm
@Grey: Do you have a digital video camera? Like a Flip or something? Or do you just use your iPhone?
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@Steve: iPhone, why?
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November 23rd, 2010 at 5:17 pm
@Grey: Friend has a second hand Flip to sell – cust researchin’.
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@Steve: Gotcha… Yeah, don’t need it, thanks for asking though.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 5:24 pm
@Grey: Heh. Was researching for me!
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@Steve: Hehe… Did you see that new dance craze?
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November 23rd, 2010 at 5:26 pm
@Grey: Yeah – that was awesome.
Reminds me of myself after half a bottle of beer.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Somewhat related to Domonic Brown discussion, if Jason Werth were to go to the Boston Red Sox, would that increase or decrease his fantasy value compared to staying on the Phillies?
I have him on my team and can’t decide whether to keep him or Matt Holiday next season.
I think Werth would hit a ton of doubles at Fenway, not to mention hitting at Yankee Stadium and in Toronto as opposed to hitting in Atlanta, Florida or Citi Field in the NL East.
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@Steve: Hehe
@Kevin: Gotta wait to see where he ends up on whether or not you should keep him. Red Sox would be fine for his fantasy value.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 7:26 pm
@Kevin: red sox would be great like grey said but i’d probably rather have holliday no matter where werth lands if thats your options.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 7:30 pm
@Grey:
Nice to see that you’re still working hard for the people in the offseason. Quick keeper question: Do you think that Colby Rasmus is going to prove to be a valuable keeper pick. I’m getting good value on him (Round 27) for next season. Thanks in advance.
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@Pops: Yeah, Rasmus will be great for a 27th round pick.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 pm
@Steve: You have to watch Office Space as soon as possible. I would hate for any of the humor to get lost in technological advances.
@Grey: Consider it learned. Or berned, if you will. Is it the weekend yet? I want to move it like Bern.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 8:16 pm
Funny how there’s more than one song touting the dance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D76bfeBi6w0&feature=related
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November 23rd, 2010 at 8:22 pm
had to remind myself how Bernie actually moved: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRMlvBfSBYQ&feature=related
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@royce!: It’s like when there was two Whomp There It Ises (Is’s?). People trying to capitalize on the Bern.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 9:00 pm
@Grey: I prefer the Whoot version. Insofar as it demands that I tell everyone where that booty’s at.
Surprised the Tag Team version won that battle.
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November 23rd, 2010 at 10:29 pm
@Grey:
i’ve watched all of the videos .
did you change the title of this post to ==> demonic clowns ?
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@royce!: It was a surprise, for sure.
@big o: Hehe
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November 24th, 2010 at 12:26 am
Belt is athletic enough to play OF also… so whenever he’s ready he should be up… or Huff can go to LF…
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November 24th, 2010 at 7:59 am
for team payrolls (that go back 20 years) ,
and individual players , as well :
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2010
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@mic: Yeah, would still like to see someone on the Giants say he’s getting playing time.
@big o: Interesting…
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November 24th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Because we can’t go 12 hours without a comment.
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November 24th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
@Steve:At work, I came across a guy from New Zealand and quickly thought of you. I almost asked him if he knew Frequent Razzball Commenter Steve. My line was too long for small talk. Plus, there was a really hot girl right behind him I wanted to tend to more. Even when baseball season is over, I still have Razzball on my mind…
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November 24th, 2010 at 10:00 pm
@tHe sHiT: We’re everywhere!
Actually been a terrible few days down here. We had 29 miners killed in an explosion yesterday (after they were trapped after an initial explosion last Friday) so there’s a pretty sombre mood across the nation. There’s only 4 million of us so everyone feels something like this.
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November 24th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
@Steve: Oh man yeah I heard about that. Sorry for your losses.
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