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Let’s start with what I said a few months ago, “This year in the minors Domonic Brown had a line of 65/20/68/.327/17 and .391/.589/.980.  Let’s recap, whoa/wow/nice/yum-yum/don’t mind if I do and yowsers/that’s lovely/yowsersthat’slovely.  To break that down for the people who skimmed the first two sentences, he has 20/20 potential with plate discipline.  It’s the fantasy baseball equivalent to:  “I don’t think this glazed donut can get any better.”  “How about we sprinkle bacon on it?”  Drool.  By my estimation (and Keith Law’s), he’s the number one prospect in the minors.  (Desmond Jennings is a close 2nd in my book that was rejected by Simon & Schuster.)”  And that’s me quoting me!  First off, Jennings is now one, according to me, and Brown is two for 2011.  Don’t ask me how it changed.  It just did, okay?  Well, actually, I’ll explain how it changed.  Preemptive, you’re welcome.  Speed translates easier than power.  Power, on youngsters, doesn’t always immediately appear.  Beyond 2011, I could see Brown leapfrogging Jennings to have more value in fantasy.  Shoot, he can have more value in 2011, but he’s not safer.  So what can we expect for Domonic Brown in 2011 fantasy baseball?

Once Jayson Werth’s out of Philly (and taking a probable fantasy hit) or Raul Ibanez is tossed blindfolded into the newly-constructed Citizens Flank Octagon, Brown’s the man to man a spot in the outfield.  He’ll probably slot somewhere in the lower half of the lineup and be given the rope to succeed or fail depending on how badly his fantasy owners need him to produce.* (*There’s no evidence that his fantasy owners hopes and dreams have anything to do with Brown’s potential success rate.  In fact, some studies that don’t actually exist show that the more fantasy owners want something to happen the less likely it will.)  Brown could be Krispie Young with a better average next year.  More likely, he’ll look a lot like The Big FraGu with a better average.  The upside for more is there, obviously.  I’d put his line at 55/12/70/.290/14 if I were in a conservative mood.  Absolutely ownable in mixed leagues, just maybe not as exciting as you might think.  In keepers, he’s a must own or tums now, if you’re an anagrammatist or having indigestion.

68 Responses

  1. big o says:
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    ” I don’t think this glazed donut can get any better . ”

    one of you best lines , ever !

    very amusing article , throughout .
    especially the part about steve .

  2. Steve says:
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    @big o: I don’t see the word ‘awesome’ anywhere.

    Grey – Keith Law called. Said he predicted Brown’s no.1 ranking for 2011 – in 1995.

  3. big o says:
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    @Steve:

    what are your thoughts on vernon wells vs carlos quentin ?

  4. GopherDay says:
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    Grey, who do you prefer from the Washington Middle infield? Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa?

  5. GopherDay says:
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    V-Mart apparently close to a deal with Tigers.

  6. GopherDay says:
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    V-Mart has signed with the Tigers.

    “He also logged 904 innings behind the plate, a number that should decrease in Detroit due to the presence of Alex Avila.”

    More DHing and occasional innings at first than catching which should be good for his value.

  7. GopherDay says:
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    Victor Martinez
    Derrek Lee
    Curtis Granderson
    Nelson Cruz
    Mike Stanton
    CC Sabathia
    Jonathan Papelbon
    David Aardsma

    Grey, 16 team 5X5 ROTO league, out of those players which 5 keepers would you pick? We keep 5 players every year with no restrictions or anything.

    I’m thinking V-Mart, CC, and Cruz are the no brainers from that group. For the other two slots, do I go with Stanton for his upside? Papelbon because its a deep 16 team league? Grandy, hoping for a bounce back? Lee, for lack of an infield?

    Insight is greatly appreciated.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Thanks for the heads up!

    @GopherDay: The three you said and Stanton and Grandy.

  9. Steve says:
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    @big o: Don’t have particularly strong feelings for either of ‘em, but CQ is the more likely to be a bit undervalued so I guess I’d go with him.

    Grey?

    Elsewhere – Huff gets 2 years, 22 mill. Sheesh.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Not surprising coming from the Giants. Glad I didn’t write that Brandon Belt post.

  11. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Wells v CQ?

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: CQ… Old habits yadda yadda.

  13. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: I still wouldn’t writing him, Belt, completely off.

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Stephen: Not yet, of course not. Need to see how he works into the playing time picture though.

  15. Steve says:
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    Hamilton wins AL MVP.
    Murray Chass voted for Ty Cobb.

  16. James says:
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    Caveat on speed translating at MLB level quicker than power, provided they can get on base.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: Fair point.

  18. in says:
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    Quick keeper question:
    $20 Cliff Lee
    or
    $5 Domonic Brown

    5×5, $260 cap

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @in: In a bubble, Lee.

  20. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Apparently the Giants were only matching what another team was prepared to offer.

    I look forward to taking him in the 4th round, next year.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha… Is it weird that I just listened to Ram Jam’s Black Betty 17 times in a row and am not done yet?

  22. MikeMoustaches says:
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    @Steve: Huff at 10Mil per, + a $2 mil buy-out is pretty fair in this arket, especially factoring in a reward for the #7 MVP vote-getter’s contribution to a franchise that has never won a WS (50+ years) in its current location.

    And, as Steve pointed out, it sounds like it was market value, for once.

    Also, about Belt: despite Posey’s delayed introduction, the Giants are not all that concerned about super@, etc., if Belt is ready, Huff will move to LF and Belt will play.

    Doesn’t sound all that good for Pat the Bat, though. SF ladies say :(

  23. MikeMoustaches says:
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    wow, so many typos: “Market,” “HAD never won a WS”, “Super 2″

  24. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Not weird. Knock yourself out.

    If you haven’t already.

    @MikeMoustaches: Fair call – it does seem reasonable for the year he’s just had. Be interesting to see if we’re still saying the same thing this time next year.

  25. James says:
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    In re # 21 in (above):
    Lee-Lee-Lee!

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: That’s a few different kinds of awesome.

  27. Steve says:
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    @royce!: @Grey: Dude looked like a serial killer.

    Think it was the glasses.

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Or he looked like Milton from Office Space.

  29. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Thanks to Google, I know what you mean. A dead-ringer.

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: You’ve never seen Office Space? Oh, Steve, you gotta rent it.

  31. Steve says:
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    @Grey: It’s really that good?

    But it has Jennifer Aniston in it.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, but it’s Mike Judge. It’s the best move Aniston was ever in and she’s barely in it. They just give her co-star billing to try and sell the movie.

  33. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    “In fact, some studies that don’t actually exist show that the more fantasy owners want something to happen the less likely it will.” Grey’s Law of Fantasy, a derivation of Murphy’s Law. So True! And great stuff!

    Any thoughts on Carlos Zambrano for next year?

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: Could be a solid number three fantasy starter, I worry about his health though.

  35. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You sound like his Jewish mother.

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I thought I sounded a bit like Dawn Weiner in Welcome to the Dollhouse when I was like, “Oh, Steve, you just gotta rent it.”

  37. Steve says:
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    @Grey: It did seem kinda like girlish excitement, but I just figured you really liked the movie .

    Either that, or you wrote it (emoticon).

  38. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Do you have a digital video camera? Like a Flip or something? Or do you just use your iPhone?

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: iPhone, why?

  40. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Friend has a second hand Flip to sell – cust researchin’.

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Gotcha… Yeah, don’t need it, thanks for asking though.

  42. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Heh. Was researching for me!

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hehe… Did you see that new dance craze?

  44. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah – that was awesome.

    Reminds me of myself after half a bottle of beer.

  45. Kevin says:
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    Somewhat related to Domonic Brown discussion, if Jason Werth were to go to the Boston Red Sox, would that increase or decrease his fantasy value compared to staying on the Phillies?

    I have him on my team and can’t decide whether to keep him or Matt Holiday next season.

    I think Werth would hit a ton of doubles at Fenway, not to mention hitting at Yankee Stadium and in Toronto as opposed to hitting in Atlanta, Florida or Citi Field in the NL East.

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hehe

    @Kevin: Gotta wait to see where he ends up on whether or not you should keep him. Red Sox would be fine for his fantasy value.

  47. Tony says:
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    @Kevin: red sox would be great like grey said but i’d probably rather have holliday no matter where werth lands if thats your options.

  48. Pops says:
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    @Grey:
    Nice to see that you’re still working hard for the people in the offseason. Quick keeper question: Do you think that Colby Rasmus is going to prove to be a valuable keeper pick. I’m getting good value on him (Round 27) for next season. Thanks in advance.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Pops: Yeah, Rasmus will be great for a 27th round pick.

  50. royce! says:
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    @Steve: You have to watch Office Space as soon as possible. I would hate for any of the humor to get lost in technological advances.

    @Grey: Consider it learned. Or berned, if you will. Is it the weekend yet? I want to move it like Bern.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: It’s like when there was two Whomp There It Ises (Is’s?). People trying to capitalize on the Bern.

  52. royce! says:
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    @Grey: I prefer the Whoot version. Insofar as it demands that I tell everyone where that booty’s at.

    Surprised the Tag Team version won that battle.

  53. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    i’ve watched all of the videos .
    did you change the title of this post to ==> demonic clowns ?

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: It was a surprise, for sure.

    @big o: Hehe

  55. mic says:
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    Belt is athletic enough to play OF also… so whenever he’s ready he should be up… or Huff can go to LF…

  56. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mic: Yeah, would still like to see someone on the Giants say he’s getting playing time.

    @big o: Interesting…

  57. Steve says:
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    Because we can’t go 12 hours without a comment.

  58. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Steve:At work, I came across a guy from New Zealand and quickly thought of you. I almost asked him if he knew Frequent Razzball Commenter Steve. My line was too long for small talk. Plus, there was a really hot girl right behind him I wanted to tend to more. Even when baseball season is over, I still have Razzball on my mind…

  59. Steve says:
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    @tHe sHiT: We’re everywhere!
    Actually been a terrible few days down here. We had 29 miners killed in an explosion yesterday (after they were trapped after an initial explosion last Friday) so there’s a pretty sombre mood across the nation. There’s only 4 million of us so everyone feels something like this.

  60. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Steve: Oh man yeah I heard about that. Sorry for your losses.

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