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Last year, I was probably Buster Posey’s greatest champion. Not only was he the obvious number one catcher, but my futuristic math indicated that in points leagues he had first round value. While he had first round numbers, I wasn’t actually suggesting drafting him in the first round. This would have been a very foolish and easily avoidable mistake. The reason was simple. Buster’s average draft position was somewhere in the third round and he was regularly going in the fourth. Taking him in the first round was not only unnecessary, but also ill advised. Take him in the second and get two first round worthy picks. Get him in the third, even better. However if you had a late third round pick you’d run the risk of missing out. But what’s the fun without any risk? If Buster Posey was still available in the fourth round you have only yourself to blame for your stupidity.

My opinion on this matter was met with its fair share of skepticism. The reasoning behind my stance relied on a principle I call “drop-off”. I intend to do a complete writeup on this concept, but for now I will briefly summarize. Drop-off refers to the drop in value, or number of points, you will incur by passing on a player and taking the next best at that position.

Last year Buster scored about 450 points depending on your league’s scoring system. Stating the obvious, that was good enough to make him the best catcher in the league. The second best was Brian McCann who finished with 333 points. Even someone schooled in the house of common core math could figure that Posey scored 117 more points than next best catcher. How they get there will just be a drastically different route. The average number of points scored by the top 12 catchers was 244 points. If I “carry the one” that puts Buster exactly 206 points better than average. Possessing such an advantage at a position is, well, just that. Advantageous.

Posey’s 0.704 points per plate appearance was 14th best in baseball amongst hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. It was better than names such as Andrew McCutchen (0.644), Yoenis Cespedes (0.660), Manny Machado (0.674) and even Mike Trout (0.700). He has consistently produced since his call up in 2010, and in his age 28 season, he was right in his prime. But is he still the top catcher in fantasy baseball points league?

I think that was mostly a rhetorical question. I’m not quite sure, but I think it was. And the fact that I wrote it and don’t know is even more confusing. Buster Posey is the king of home plate until someone else proves that he isn’t. However, even though I am expecting the same level of production from him again this year, I don’t know if he has the same value when it comes time to put up or shut up at the draft. This fall in value has nothing to do with Posey at all, but instead, the emergence of a new player. There has been an awakening. Have you felt it?

Is this possible? Can a player such as Posey lose value at his position even when he is projected to maintain his top notch level of production which is better than anyone else at said position? The answer is “I think so”.

Enter Kyle Schwarber, 2015’s most exciting catcher. In 269 plate appearances, less than a half a season, Schwarber hit 16 home runs, scored 52 times and drove in 43 runs. Over a full season, these numbers would make him the top power hitting catcher. He’d also lead relevant catchers in strikeouts, which I despise. But perhaps with more Major League experience he will be able to bring that number down. Last season he struck out in about 28% of his plate appearances. Over the course of his minor league career he averaged a strikeout rate of 20.7%. The more he can lower his strikeout rate the more there is to like about this kid. I realize he only had 269 plate appearances, but his 0.620 PPPA was higher than the likes of Charlie Blackmon (0.588), Ian Kinsler (0.596), Freddie Freeman (0.599), Jose Abreu (0.606) and Matt Carpenter (0.616).

So if I’m not ranking Schwarber ahead of Posey, how does he decrease Posey’s value? Here’s how. While I have not yet compiled my 2016 rankings or projections, I can venture to guess that Buster will once again surface as first round value with an ADP of the third round, putting prospective owners in the same position as last season come draft day. Schwarber however likely projects to be more of a 6th or 7th rounder. Don’t quote me on that as it’s a rough estimate, but it feels about right. While I completely expect Buster to outpoint Kyle, I also do not expect the drop-off in points between the the two to be as great as it was projected to be last year. Here’s what this means, if you miss out on Posey or decide you want to take someone else with that second or third round pick and then grab Schwarber in the 6th, the trade off might be the right play. That all depends on who you take in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. And if Posey falls to the 4th, maybe you grab him there.

So here’s how it breaks down. Because Schwarber is out there, the urgency to grab Posey to dominate the catcher position has been lessened. Once I have compiled my projections, I will revisit these two players provide my more precise suggestions for draft day.