I was talking to Woody Harrelson about what’s happening with the Blue Jays from a fantasy perspective. He said, “I like their 2nd baseman. Aaron um…um….” I said, “I know his name. It’s surely…” He said, “Hemp!” I said “Hill.” Fail. Cousin Oliver steps up to the schmohawk dunk tank and down goes Aaron Hill. His ADP is 46. I have him at 59. That’s pretty close. Close like asking for Fluff and getting Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme. You settle for Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme, I mourn you. I’m a Native American in a 70’s commercial watching you litter. To get to an ADP of 46, there’s people drafting him as high as 25. This better not be any of youse. Don’t make me come back there! I have Hill’s line at 85/24/80/.280/5; James has 78/20/76/.283/5; CHONE has 78/21/75/.282/4; Marcel has 76/21/75/.281/6; Point Shares has him ranked at 110 and just around average, earning -.03 points. I’m actually the most optimistic and I’m telling you he’s overrated. Crimey a river! In a perfect world, Aaron Hill can hit 36 homers. Last year was a perfect world, Costner. His HR/FB ratio last year was 14.9%. The three years before that were 2.4%, 8.6% and 3.6%. You don’t have to have a BS degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston to see 14.9% is a bit out of whack. And by bit, I mean a lot. So 25 homers seems like Hill’s peak. What about his speed?
He doesn’t really have any. On Bill James’s Speed Score where the average is 5.0, Hill’s at 3.2. Behind such tug boats as Mark Teixeira, Glass Chipper and Scott Rolen. All right, but you can’t just ignore those 108 RBIs he had last year. Maybe you can. He hit behind a career year from Marco Scutaro who had a .379 OBP in 680 plate appearances. Speaking of which, Aaron Hill had the most plate appearances in the major leagues last year. Number one. As in, no one was in front of him number one. You have to take that many plate appearances with a grain of salt. In 2010, Hill will be hitting behind who? John Buck? Jose Bautista? Yeah, there goes those RBIs. People are drafting him around the same time as Justin Morneau (30/100/.290) and Curtis Granderson (30/20)… Okay, different positions. But how are people drafting him at the same time as Cano’s 90/27/100/.315/5? Take a 2nd baseman later (Ian Stewart, Scott Sizemore, Kelly Johnson) instead of reaching for Aaron Hill. He’s overrated.
