No clever pun, no dumb reference, simply put, I’m laying down the hard cold truth. Tyler O’Neill is a potential superstar. While this statement is becoming less and less controversial as the hours and homeruns stack up, I would note that while the window to be part of the O’Neill party is closing fast and makes it sound like you’re going to have dinner with him and his family at a fancy restaurant, there are still some red flags to take note of. But I thought he was a potential superstar? That’s right me, I am confirming to myself that I did say that and of course I believe it, but it would be folly just to expect the same results as the season progresses. Or is it? Asking all the right questions… uh, also me. And while I’m here talking to myself, why is the truth cold? A word can’t feel maaaan.
So besides the fact that I’m now having open conversations with myself in written form, it’s no secret that Tyler O’Neill has the great ability to hit the longball, but also has perhaps an equal if not greater ability to not hit the ball. The classic catch-22, the power hitter who strikes out ad nauseum. I’ve seen many, been a fan of many (only time I could refer to someone as “The Donk” affectionately that wasn’t your mother). And let’s be fair, when O’Neill misses the ball, he really does miss it well.
Holding a career 33.9 K% to go with a 6.1 BB% is generally not the best way to go as a hitter and you could probably point to any of his past four seasons (of limited playing time I might add) to prove that point. Just last year, in 157 PA’s, O’Neill produced the best ratio splits in his career with a 27.4 K% and 9.6 BB% and only managed a .173 BA. Now, his BABIP was .189, by far an anomaly compared to his career .317 number, but this still illustrates the fine line players have to navigate when their plate discipline is the weakest part of their game.
I won’t bother with the usual assortment of tables, graphs, fourth-grade level arithmetic, etc. because there’s no story to tell with the numbers besides the ones that deal with walks and strikeouts. Behold!
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 37.2 | 72.4 | 51.1 | 20.0 |
| 2020 | 28.8 | 70.4 | 45.5 | 14.8 |
| 2021 | 34.6 | 75.1 | 53 | 19.0 |
Okay, so, some of the things I don’t like. First, it seems as though his O-Swing% has stayed pretty constant sans 2020, and overall, just swinging more in general as seen with his raise in Swing% may mean a few more longballs, but it’s more than likely increasing his propensity to swing-and-miss as seen with his rising O-Contact% and Z-Contact%.
| Year | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 35.7 | 75.5 | 60.9 | 39.6 |
| 2020 | 42.3 | 75.9 | 67.5 | 40.2 |
| 2021 | 34.6 | 74.0 | 64.1 | 45.5 |
But here’s what I do like. Granted, these changes are gradual over the course of the four years, but there has been a slow trend upwards in terms of his SwStr% and Contact%. While you’d like to see O’Neill swing less outside and more inside, I guess swinging more with both still kinda gets you there. As echoed above, that may not be a great thing, but more swings in the zone does at least show some effort to swing at good pitches.
All this is to say that while we know this batter has major plate discipline issues, and they may be around to stay for a while. Also something to ponder as well, we are still talking about a player who has a total of 610 career PA’s as of this writing. If you just kinda take his career numbers, you realize you’re dealing with what is essentially just one season of normal baseball, and some of these determinations just need more time.
So what was the point of all this? Well, it wasn’t just to let you know that Tyler O’Neill is a potential superstar, it was to say that he gets there by taking a walk once and a while. Now, what that means for you, I would say enjoy the power, enjoy the show, but the growing pains aren’t quite over yet. If anything, just a simple snapshot of his plate tool shows glimmers of hope but ultimately what we see might be what we’re getting. It’s important to remember that just based on the numbers, there will probably be several more times where there will be times when a .173 hitter shows up like last season, and times like we’re seeing now. The trick with a player like this is to hold on in the best of times and the worst of times (the second one being key here), because if he ever does figure out how to take a few more walks, the sky’s the limit.
And honestly, is this the second post this year I’ve quoted Charles Dickens? Yikes.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him @jaywrong, or read his rarely (like never) updated blog Desultory Thoughts of a Longfellow.
