A friend of mine is incredible at dynasty fantasy football. I’ve seen him steal Odell Beckham Jr. at the 10th pick in a rookie draft. He fleeced the owners of one league into acquiring 6 first round draft picks in the same year. An orphan team that finished at the bottom the two previous years finished in the money his first season after adopting it. It’s ridiculous (and frustrating owning against him). But the phrase he uses to describe how he does it is completely perfect: “You gotta be a shark.”

Coincidence I mention dynasty fantasy football? Nope! Be on the lookout for Razzball’s first venture into dynasty football in the next few days! It’s by far the better version of fantasy football, and I’ll give ya all the rankings you need.

Now, when we talk about sharks in fantasy sports, the primary mention involves DFS millionaires feating their income from the novice players to afraid to play anything more than a $5 entry. The same mentality exists in annual leagues where owners gobble up assets from the bottom rung of owners, siphoning their production pre-All-Star Break with the perfect sell high moves; that’s why the art of being a shark requires impeccable timing. Sell high, buy low, and, for our context, pick up at the perfect time. When there’s a Two-Start week being overlooked, double up on the available value. And when the player’s nickname just happens to be ‘The Shark’, everything in the universe makes sense.

I was overwhelmingly low on Jeff Samardzija to start the year. He hasn’t had a dominant season since 2014, but even then he finished with a 7-13 record (proof that W are inferior to QS). His K/9 hasn’t come close to even 8.0 the past two years. And with a career ERA now over 4.00 his potentially dominant luster has dimmed. Yet, here we are going into Week 6 staring at a two-step for Samardzija and he’s earning 600 words at the top of this series, haha.

For those wondering, yes…I’m aware he holds an ERA of 5.03 currently. And that he’s 0-4 (didn’t we just discuss the limited value of that stat, though?). Looking deeper, however, you can find a Shark that other sharks are targeting. His 3.67 FIP would be his second-lowest since 2012, and his 2.95 xFIP is the best of his career (a stat that takes away the inflation from HR surrendered). Yes, it’s a small sample size of six starts, but Samardzija’s improving in almost every area that he has control over. After his 8 IP, 3 H, 11 K masterpiece this week, his K/9 sits at 10.53, giving him a 4.60 K/BB rate (an area he’s always impressed). His swinging-strike % jumped 2 points to 11.5% so far, and perhaps best of all, 27.5% of all contact is categorized as soft (vs. medium or hard). He’s pitching well, the ERA just isn’t showing it thanks to his inflated HR/FB rate of 20%. That’s double his career norm. It will drop, and when it does those surface stats will improve. In many leagues, especially RCL’s, he’s available. So, be a shark this weekend. Go and getcha some-ardzija.

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.

THE BEST

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Max Scherzer WAS @BAL, PHI 2.66/3.09 11.29/2.43
Jake Arrieta CHC @COL, @STL 4.63/3.79 10.54/2.31
Jacob deGrom NYM SF, @MIL 3.68/3.10 12.03/3.93
Carlos Carrasco CLE @TOR, MIN 2.18/3.38 8.49/1.74

THE REPLICAS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Ivan Nova PIT @LAD, @ARI 2.14/2.51 5.79/0.21
Carlos Martinez STL @MIA, CHC 3.75/3.51 10.75/3.75
Robbie Ray ARI DET, PIT 3.47/3.26 12.14/4.46
Justin Verlander DET @ARI, @LAA 4.21/3.59 8.67/4.21
Marcus Stroman TOR CLE, SEA 3.89/3.67 6.86/2.29
Gio Gonzalez WAS @BAL, PHI 1.64/4.10 7.98/4.23
Alex Wood LAD PIT, @COL 3.28/2.47 9.85/3.82
Jeff Samardzija SF @NYM, CIN 5.03/3.68 10.53/2.29
Charlie Morton HOU ATL, @NYY 3.97/3.12 10.32/2.65
Jameson Taillon PIT @LAD, @ARI 3.31/4.08 7.64/3.31

THE STANDARDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Jerad Eickhoff PHI SEA, @WAS 4.00/3.37 8.25/3.25
Masahiro Tanaka NYY @CIN, HOU 4.46/4.38 6.44/2.48
Drew Pomeranz BOS @MIL, TB 4.00/3.92 11.33/3.00
Ian Kennedy KC @TB, BAL 3.03/4.47 7.82/3.79
Kendall Graveman OAK LAA, @TEX 3.95/4.64 6.26/2.96

THE KNOCKOFFS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Julio Urias LAD PIT, @COL 0.84/4.35 4.22/6.75
Matt Andriese TB KC, @BOS 3.09/4.66 7.71/3.35
Antonio Senzatela COL CHC, LAD 2.84/4.22 4.74/1.79
Adam Conley MIA STL, ATL 6.12/5.12 7.56/4.68
Blake Snell TB KC, @BOS 3.45/4.98 7.76/6.03
A.J. Griffin TEX @SD, OAK 3.54/4.22 10.18/2.21
Hector Santiago MIN @CHW, @CLE 2.78/3.90 6.31/2.78
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA @PHI, @TOR 4.35/6.29 4.65/3.48

THE 8c65e5de808ec301754508366480250c

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Ricky Nolasco LAA @OAK, DET 4.68/5.61 7.44/1.63
Matt Moore SF @NYM, CIN 6.75/5.44 7.56/3.75
Wily Peralta MIL BOS, NYM 4.88/5.14 7.76/3.73
Kevin Gausman BAL WAS, @KC 7.55/6.20 5.81/5.23
Mike Pelfrey CHW MIN, SD 5.02/4.84 2.51/3.77
Nate Karns KC @TB, BAL 4.97/5.07 8.07/3.10
Luis Perdomo SD TEX, @CHW 4.03/3.08 7.25/2.42
Nick Martinez TEX @SD, OAK 4.91/6.14 4.91/1.96
Kyle Freeland COL CHC, LAD 2.85/3.65 5.29/3.71
Rookie Davis CIN NYY, @SF 7.36/6.44 6.75/6.14
Alex Meyer LAA @OAK, DET 9.39/4.34 8.22/8.22
Jered Weaver SD TEX, @CHW 5.52/7.47 4.41/1.65

All pitchers are projected for two-starts as of Friday night.

 

Good luck in Week 6! Keep checking back for your weekly lineup needs. Oh, and don’t be afraid to ask your questions. On life. On pitchers. On ranks. On…well, just…

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

Follow [email protected] on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.

  1. MERC says:
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    Ian Kennedy is on the DL. Probably not gonna fulfill “the standard” expectations this week.

  2. Murph says:
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    Drop Ed Rod for the Shark or Charlie Morton?
    Thanks!

    • @Murph: Can you get both Morton AND Samardzija? Haha, I’m trying to target Morton, too, but I’d take Samardzija first.

  3. Packers says:
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    Taillon on the DL too.

  4. Noam Levenson says:
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    Hey [email protected], in a 6×6 OPS, HD league, would you trade Herrera and Porcello for Kemp and Nate Jones?

    • Packers says:
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      @Noam Levenson: Is that the pitcher or the outfielder Herrera? I would keep Porcello the way the SP’s are hitting the DL. # of teams make a difference though.

    • @Noam Levenson: Late for ya. My bad. Yes, I’d do that. Herrera and Jones about equal if you’re adding the Hold, but I’d take Kemp over Porcello. Do it.

  5. Scott says:
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    Drop Nola or Tyson Ross? 14 team HTH, counts HR against pitchers

    • Scott says:
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      @Scott: Andriese, Griffin, and Santiago are available.

      • @Scott: I’d keep Nola. I like Andriese the most of the others, but Nola more.

  6. JakeTPE says:
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    Hello [email protected]!

    Great stuff. Long Live Left Shark!

    Never too early to start talking dynasty football and since you mentioned it, I have a 16-team keeper, standard scoring, can keep up to 8 (D Johnson, Hill, Procise at RB, Evans, Hopkins, Lockett at WR, Ryan at QB are 7 I’ve pretty much locked in). Who do you like from J Charles, Theo Riddick, or Jack Doyle for the 8th keeper (around pick #127)?

    Thanks!!

    • @JakeTPE: Thanks man! Late getting back to you, but haha, yes! Do your own thing!

      Standard scoring with those options take the flier of Charles. Riddick loses value without the PPR stats, and Doyle is meh in a deeper TE pool. Charles could boom for one more year.

      None are wonderful dynasty options, though, for standard scoring.

      • JakeTPE says:
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        @[email protected]: Thanks for the feedback! Yeah, none are particularly great but in a 16 teamer the pool thins out quickly, so serviceable is good enough. Plenty of time to mull this over. I’ll look forward to your content over in the football side in the meantime!

  7. Mike says:
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    Was just offered arreita and a. Cabrera for manny (I own). Does the counter offer of manny for mookie and arrieta seem nuts? I’ve got beltre hopefully returning in a few weeks and I would try and flip mookie for an arm down the road, so I’ve got some flexibility in moving manny.

    • @Mike: I’d rather have Mookie over all of those options, and you can’t trade Machado for Arrieta. That would be really bad. Asrubal is Asdruballs. Whatever. Don’t do that.

      If you’re sending Machado for Mookie straight up, do it. If you add in Arrieta, sweet mercy, do it. haha.

  8. Jonathan Miller says:
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    Would Mike Clevinger be a good spot start today against the Royals?

  9. Siren Vogelsong says:
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    I need help! Who should I start this week? Walker for 1 start v Pittsburgh or Senzatella at home v Cubs and Dodgers?

Comments are closed.