Top 100 Outfielders: Main Event Season

Our long national nightmare of no regular season Major League Baseball has ended. I can’t wait to draft more Twins and Rays and spend six months complaining about their lineup decisions!

But hey, we’re here to go over the top 100 outfielders with a dive into a handful of players who I have rated exactly right and the ADP from Main Event drafts thus far has gotten them completely wrong. Ok, all drafters except the Main that I just rostered. Also, we’ll talk about some guys I rate similarly but find kind of interesting ahead of the season.

My ratings are based on NFBC 15 team Roto format since that is most of what I play. That means we all need 5 outfielders, thus it’s a deep league with a shallow pool of choices on the back end. I just drafted a “live” Main Event on Saturday in Robbinsville NJ, known around here as “Vegas on the Turnpike” (OK maybe not).  When I refer to where an OF goes, I just mean that’s where he gets drafted on average in Main Events through 3/15. “OF-28” means Player X gets drafted as the 28th OF. Anyways….

1) Aaron Judge

2) Juan Soto

3) Corbin Carroll

4) Kyle Tucker

5) Jackson Chourio 

6) Julio Rodriguez

7) Fernando Tatis Jr.

8) Mookie Betts

Well, I had Chourio as OF-5 when he was going 7th or 8th. But he’s now going as OF-5in NFBC Main Events so I guess I just gave him the obvious upgrade. I drafted my Main out of the 9 hole and I thought seriously about picking Chourio, but I stuck with Tucker.

The now 21 year-old Brewer phenom got off to quite the slow start in 2024. It’s kind of understandable since again, he was 20. As of May 31st, Chourio sported a .210/.254/.327 triple slash and 27% K%. But from that point forward, he emerged as one of the best hitters in MLB, slashing an electric .303/.358/.525 with a 18.7% K% that’s crazy impressive for a young power bat.

How did that compare to a couple other recent prodigies once they got a little taste of MLB pitching? Well glad you asked. Here is Chourio from June 1st on vs. rookie Ronald Acuna at age 20 and rookie Julie Rodriguez at age 21, both also after June 1st.

 

 

Pretty, pretty close (cue Larry David voice). Chourio trails a bit in the power department but flashed better plate discipline and hit tool. All three had 97th percentile or better speed. So what did Acuna and JRod do in year two? Quite a bit. Acuna hit 41 HR, 127 runs, 101 RBI, 37 Steals with a .280 Avg., while JRod 32-102-103-37-.275. There is of course no guarantee Chourio has an equal explosion, But a 30-100-100-30-.285 or better line sure seems in play. I have him just ahead of 2025 JRod who obviously can put up the same line as Chourio.  But JRod slumped big time in the 1st half of 2024 and he plays in an extreme pitchers park in front of a bad lineup. I also would go for the Chourio ceiling play over Mookie Betts unless you play in a league that incorporates bowling stats. The future HOF-er is still great, hits on top of the best lineup in MLB, and has added SS eligibility, I just like taking a shot at a Chourio breakout here as it would shock no one if he moves to the top 3-4 overall ADP next season.

9) Yordan Alvarez

10) Jackson Merrill

11) Wyatt Langford

Has a guy ever had a more perfect name to play for the Texas Rangers than Wyatt Langford? Well, they had a Steele Walker (Texas Ranger) get 16 PAs in 2022. So let me rephrase it; has a potential 5 category superstar ever had a more perfect name to play for the Texas Rangers? The Uber prospect ate up the college game at Florida and made the Opening day roster after just 200 extremely dominant PA’s across 3 minor league levels, but then understandably started a bit on the sluggish side in The Show. He had just a .244/.310/.370 line as late as 7/27. Then the proverbial light went on (or went off, not sure which metaphor to use). He slashed  .265/.347/.485 in his remaining 222 PA’s, with 11 homers and 10 steals. Any hope of gobbling Langford up relatively late in 2025 drafts has completely vanished as it costs a 2nd round pick in a 15-teamer. I got Langford once in a DC but not sure I can pay this price overall even though I have hit slightly higher as an OF. Still, owners might profit as he combines power (13.3% Barrel% in his late season surge), plate discipline (86th percentile 23.1% O-Swing%), and speed (98th percentile Sprint Speed).

I have Langford a shade above the market as he goes as the 13th OF. SP’s went early in my Main and I gobbled up Yordan at 2:7. Langford was long gone by the time I drafted in the 3rd.

12) Jazz Chisholm

13) Jarren Duran

14) Michael Harris Jr.

15) ONeil Cruz

16) Teoscar Hernandez (I drafted Teoscar at 5:9)

17) Lawrence Butler

18) James Wood

19) Seiya Suzuki

20) Ronald Acuna Jr.

21) Cody Bellinger

22) Brenton Doyle

23) Christian Yelich

24) Anthony Santander

25) Riley Greene

26) Luis Robert Jr.

27) Mike Trout

28) Dylan Crews

29) Bryan Reynolds

30) Josh Lowe

Not to be confused with teammate Brandon Lowe (no relation) or former Ray Nathaniel Lowe (relation). Lowe followed up a monster 2023 (.292. 20 homers, 32 steals) with a minuscule 2024 (.241, 10 HR, 25 steals). He started the season a month late and played better after the All-Star Break (106 wRC+ after vs. 90 wRC+ before). His K% exploded from a palatable 24.8% in 2023 to an ugly 31.8% in 2024 but why? He got too patient as in “bad patient” as his Z-Swing% dipped from 72.3% to 67.7%, but his slight increase in CStr% was offset by a slight improvement in SwStr%. And his batted ball metrics actually improved as his EV bumped from 89.1 and 44th percentile in 2023 to 90.8 and 76th percentile. 

So why should we expect improvement? Well, Lowe moves from the Tropicana Field Batters-Eye dungeon outdoors to Yankee Stadium South with 1000% humidity and a short porch in right. He’s an obvious target to improve big time in 2025 at a somewhat affordable price thanks to a couple red flags. The projections all peg Lowe in the 29% K% range, so they don’t expect a batting average asset here.. Plus it’s the Rays and they seem disinclined to give Lowe much run vs. lefties. He has lousy career splits vs. southpaws (.240 wOBA, .193 Avg) but that’s on just 163 PAs. Tampa has no obvious platoon partner for Lowe but since when has that stopped the Rays? 

Lowe has jumped to 31st overall OF and he went in the 9th round on Saturday just ahead of where I had him cued up to draft (I pivoted to an SP and picked Cristopher Sanchez at his own inflated price instead).

31) Ian Happ

32) Pete Crow-Armstrong

33) Jasson Dominguez

34) Tommy Edman

Let me start talking about Tommy Edman by saying I like Dylan Crews as a Rookie of the Year candidate, I have drafted Dylan Crews. I have Crews ranked at about where he goes in the market. He tore up college pitching at LSU and stole 12 bases in just 132 plate appearances for the Nats late in the 2024 season. My quibble here is why should I draft Crews at cost when I can get a very similar player in the here and now 3-4  rounds later if I wait and try to draft Tommy Edman? Crews is OF-30 vs. OF-41 for Edman..

Here is how they project for 2025

Yes, Edman is 29 and we pretty much know he will put up near that projected line, though I would take the Over on 22 steals. He had 27, 30 and 32 steals in his last three mostly full seasons with the Cardinals, with the 27 steal season coming in 137 games in 2023. Edman stole 11 bases (in 11 tries) in 53 total games for the Dodgers last season, and has an excellent 86.8% SB success rate in his career.

Edman puts the ball in play as his career 91.2% Z-Contact% and 7.6% SwStr% numbers are borderline elite. The downside is that it comes with little pop, though he torched my Mets in the NLCS last season. He had 8 total home runs in roughly a season (including playoffs) last year, but has never topped 13 in a regular season. His career 5.0% Barrel% and 88 EV do not suggest an imminent power surge. And there is an added bonus as Edman will likely gain 2B and MI eligibility early in the season in formats where is OF only now.

Crews has a high ceiling and will bat at or near the top of his lineup. Barring injuries, Edman will hit in the back half of the Dodgers lineup. But the Dodgers project to lead the league in runs (4.9 per game on Fangraphs) whereas the Nats rank 26th at 4.25/game. Want a small sample stat that’s not terribly predictive yet illustrates the potential Fantasy advantage of playing in a lineup filled with the Galacticos? Edman averaged 4.15 PA/G and had a combined 55 runs and RBI’s in 53 total games for the Dodgers, whereas Crews with 4.25 PA/G  had 20 combined in 31 games. Edman did modestly out hit Crews, but not to that extent. Assuming similar games played, Crews will get more PA’s, but Edman will almost certainly make up for it in counting stats

I am taking the upside potential of Crews over Edman every time, just not 3 rounds ahead. And I did stick to plan on this one as Crews went at pick 9:12 and I drafted Edman at 13:9

35) Randy Arozerarana

36) Stephen Kwan

37) Taylor Ward

I like to roster at least one player of this sort of archetype, often more than one. These players possess rather consistent “floor” profiles. They bat at or near the top of batting orders and project to hit low to mid 20’s homers with 8-12 steals, AVG’s in the .250 or better range and plus-level and consistent counting stats.

Bryan Reynolds for example is a model of consistency. The last 3 seasons he has hit between .262 and .275 with 24 t0 27 homers and 7 to 12 steals. His runs and RBIs were in the 70’s and 80’s all three seasons with the exception of plating just 62 runs in 2022. He’s a metronome, but this is almost certainly his ceiling. He plays in a pitchers park in front of a mediocre offense.

Reynolds is perfectly cromulent,  I just do not see the need to draft him at his current cost (OF 26) when I can get a pretty close replica a bit later in drafts, like Taylor Ward, (OF 42) who hit .246 with 25 homers, 6 steals, 73 runs and 75 RBI’s in 2024. 

Under the hood, these two look very similar. They have plus EV and barrel rates with relatively poor contact skills. Here is Reynolds Statcast page from ‘24

 

And here is Ward’s

Ward actually showed more pop and could probably improve upon his 24.6% K% as he has a very low Chase rate (20.2% O-Swing%).

Defense does not matter in Fantasy, but it absolutely does in real life. Ward’s range ranks in the 84th percentile, whereas Reynolds ranks in the 1st. He could lose PA’s to defensive replacements, not to mention it could suggest a rough aging curve

What Ward does not have is a history of staying on the field. He saw 663 PA’s in 156 games last season after never topping 564 PA’s or 135 games in 7 sometimes partial seasons. But that’s partly thanks to a scary fluke injury in 2023 (facial fractures from an HBP).  He is 31, one year older than Reynolds.

Alas, I didn’t get Ward as he went 7 picks ahead of Edman.

38) Colton Cowser

39) Brandon Nimmo

40) Nick Castellanos

41) Adolis Garcia

42) Lane Thomas

43) Victor Robles

44) Kerry Carpenter

45) Tyler O’Neil

46 Jake McCarthy

In my mind, everyone named Jake gets nicknamed “The Snake”. Does Jake McCarthy go by that though? I asked AI, and it spit back “While he doesn’t have the nickname “Jake the Snake” officially, the “Snake” could be a reference to the Arizona Diamondbacks team mascot, which is a snake.” That’s good enough for me.

We are firmly in the “it depends on team build” stage of the draft when we get to McCarthy’s area. If you need a power bat, stay away. But if you want a batting average and steals asset who should see near every day at bats in the middle of an excellent lineup, consider McCarthy. It did fit me perfectly, and I drafted McCarthy at 16:7. He goes as OF-51 on average.

McCarthy hit .285 in 2024 with a 15.8% K% (83rd percentile) and 94.2% Z-Contact% that ranked 6th in MLB for hitters with over 450 PA’s. Plus he swiped 25 bags. The D-Backs have a crowded outfield situation that spills over to DH, but McCarthy will be a regular. He mans mostly CF and fields well, with 98th percentile range and 80th percentile fielding run value as per Statcast. Plus the lefty has not shown much in the way of platoon splits with a career .324 wOBA vs. righties vs. .313 against southpaws.

Just know you will get little to no power from The Snake. He has a minuscule career 3.2% Barrel% and 84.4 EV and hits half his balls on the ground. That works for getting on base with his 98th percentile sprint speed but not so much for the long ball.

Projections peg McCarthy in the 8-10 homer range with 25-28 steals and a .265 average in about 500 PA’s. It’s a bonus if he somehow adds power no matter how many PA’s he gets. I like his chances to outperform his Avg. and steals projections. He could also find his way to more than 500 PA’s as he’s a 27 year old plus defender with no major injury history.

47) Heliot Ramos

48) Jurickson Profar

49) Spencer Steer

50) Jorge Soler

51) Jesus Sanchez

52) Lars Nootbaar

The Cards outfielder has an excellent combo of power (9.5% career Barrel%, 90.6 EV), elite plate skills (13.8% BB%, 20.1 KK%, 6.8% SwStr%, 18.3% O-Swing%) speed and an 80-grade name. I really have to wonder why some St. Louis-area candy manufacturer hasn’t created a Noot Bar yet. Check out his Statcast page from 2024.

OK, there’s an obvious answer why Noot has not achieved stardom as he has simply failed to stay on the field. In 3+ seasons, Nootbaar has never exceeded 117 games or 503 PAs (both in 2023). But when he suits up, he looks extremely similar to Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo too could not stay healthy early in his Mets tenure. He played 140 games/535 PAs in 2018 at age 25, but otherwise did not exceed 92 games until 2022. And Nimmo now has three straight 151 or 152 game seasons with between 663 and 682 PA’s in each. 

No way to know if or when Nootbaar finally spikes a relatively healthy season. I am just suggesting that we have just seen a remarkably similar player eventually figure out how to stay on the field and produce. It gets late early when you draft outfielders in 15 team drafts. Noot is an everyday player who can put up a 20-10 season with decent counting stats if he can stay on the field, yet goes more in the range of platoon bats, speed only guys, and power bats with terrible plate skills.

Noot goes as OF-67 in Mains so I rank him a bit above the market, but I passed on him as I did not need another starting OF at his point in the draft (1st pick in the 20th round).

53) Jung Ho Lee

54) Cedric Mullins

55) George Springer

56) Garrett Mitchell

57) TJ Friedl

58) Cedanne Rafaela

59) Willie Castro (I drafted Castro at 18:7 but I have him slotted at MI)

60) Lourdes Gurriel

61) Byron Buxton

62) Jo Adell

Welcome to the Leap of Faith section of the outfield player pool. There are post-hype sleepers and there are WAY post hype sleepers. Adell once ranked at or near the top of all prospect lists, but he’s now somehow 5 partial seasons into his MLB career, and still first turns just 26 in April.

He has not exactly established himself as a solid major leaguer just yet. In fact he is quite a poor one. For his career, Adell has a -17.2 Defensive Runs Above Average total as per Fangraphs, and last season he ranked in the 33rd percentile in Fielding Runs Value on Statcast, mostly in right field. And that despite covering the grass with 86th percentile sprint speed. The plus side I suppose is that he will now almost have to play as he will man CF by default for the Angels as they move Mike Trout to a corner to try to keep the legend on the field. 

Adell also has flashed quite the (not) hit tool with a career 77.1% Z-Contact %, 15.9% SwStr% and .211 batting average. He did improve those first two numbers to 81.1% and 13.9% respectively in 2024, but discouragingly still batted just .207.

So what is possibly encouraging? Well, he will play almost out of necessity and he has no options remaining so the Angels have to remain patient. Most importantly,  Adell flashed a tantalizing power speed combo in 2024 with 15 steals, 20 homers, and an 11.7% Barrel%. And his xBA was .224. Not great (Bob), but not .207 either.

63) Nolan Jones

64) Alec Burleson

65) Jordan Walker

66) Matt Wallner

67) Brendan Donovan

68) Jared Young

69) Michael Conforto

70) JJ Bleday

*71) Roman Anthony

72) Luke Raley

73) Wilyer Abreu

74) Parker Meadows

As of this writing, it’s unclear if Anthony makes the Opening Day roster. Abreu may start the season on the IL as he recovers from some Mystery Illness in Red Sox camp. I will move Anthony up 20 spots or so if he makes the squad, but for now, I will rank him near Abreu and Meadows and his own undefined time on the shelf.

75) Max Kepler

76) Evan Carter

77) Chas McCormick

78) Jonny DeLuca

79) Sal Frelick (I drafted Frelick at 23:9 but he’s a reserve for now)

80) Brandon March

81) Jhonkensy Noel

82) Heston Kjerstad

83) Dylan Moore

84) Pavin Smith

85) Jesse Winker

86) Victor Scott II

87) Miguel Vargas (drafted 26:7 as a reserve)

88) Andy Pages

89) Trevor Larnach

90) Jerar Encarnación

91) Jose Siri

As we get down to this level for outfielders, everyone has holes in their game big enough to drive a vintage Bullpen Car through. We get strong side platoon bats alongside presumed regulars who will outright hurt you in categories like Jose Siri with his career .210 Avg. Or we get a player like Jeff McNeil who can hit for a good average at times (though not since 2022) but even then, contributes very little anywhere else. It’s a level you ignore outside of deeper formats. But hey, I am ranking players for NFBC 15 team-5 outfielder leagues and most of these players will get drafted in the reserve rounds in that format. Now while you have to shop here, you will also likely end up cutting many of them before long. It’s the Circle of FAAB life. So it makes all the sense in the world to take guys here that could pop some upside. 

Here’s my case for Jerar. He got a cameo with the Marlins in 2022 and…it did not go well. He popped 3 homers in just 89 PA’s, but hit .182 with a whopping 39.5% K%. He made his way to the Giants system in 2024 and managed to curb his swing-and-miss in AAA ball from 17.7% SwStr% in 2023 to 11.6% in 146 PA’s in 2024. That led to a much improved 24% K% and an excellent 162 wRC+.

He got the call to the majors in August and showed some major pop in irregular action. Jerar had a 15% Barrel%, 58% HardHit% and 95 EV. Here are all the hitters with at least 100 PA’s. that topped 95 EV

Aaron Judge (96.2)

Shohei Ohtani (95.8)

Oneil Cruz (95.5)

Quite the list. And only Ohtani and Judge bested his HardHit%. But alas, it came in a very small sample size as Jerar accumulated just 119 PA’s. The not quite immortal Sam Hilliard ranked 5th with a 94.7 EV in 158 PAs.

Still, those numbers are eye-opening. The Giants prioritize winning (as opposed to “financial flexibility”) and Encarnacion is 27 years old and not really a prospect. He will have to be a good actual player to get regular run by the Bay, and he has major red flags. He improved his SwStr% from an ugly 22.4% in his brief Marlins run to a playable 12.7% last season, but he still had a 28.6% K% vs, just a 4.2% BB%. Plus he’s a poor fielding corner OF. Fortunately, we have the DH spot and the Giants do not have enormous hitting depth. In fact Roster Resource pegs Encarnacion to get the nod there. Also, Encarnacion has no Options left, thus the Giants would have to expose him to waivers if he does not make the squad.

What do we have here in sum? A potential big power source late in drafts with little speed and a modest negative Avg. profile. He’s worth the shot.

92) Ryan O’Hearn

93) Tommy Pham

94) Harrison Bader

95) Jordan Beck

96) Daulton Varsho

97) MJ Melendez

98) Jared Kelenic

99) Leody Taveras

100) Jake Fraley

Let me just emphasize the fluidity of the last 20 guys or so. Kjerstad and Pages get major bumps if they stick and/or look like they have close to starting gigs. Varsho gets a bump too if he avoids the IL to start the season, but I have no interest in using a precious reserve spot on him if he does not.