The xFiles: ERA Of Misfortune

I know, I know. You saw the title of this article, the clever play on “ERA”, and immediately thought to yourself, “my boy Maks is going to do what he always does and bring the statistical heat that will help calm my anxiety about my struggling ace.” I’m looking at managers currently suffering through rough patches from Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, Chris Sale, etc.

Unfortunately, this is not that article—though I will quickly tell you I have no major concerns about any of those guys… yet.

Truth is, barring injury, most aces will be fine. Every year really good pitchers get off to slow starts. Every year, fantasy managers panic. Remember, it’s still small sample size season, and a lot of random stuff happens at the start of the year, with cold weather and early rust often hampering performance. That said, I will likely do an article in May about higher profile pitchers who are underperforming. Stay tuned!

So, if this article is NOT about your struggling, high profile ace, then who/what is it about?

Well, truth be told I started to do the deep dive into high profile starters and then early in the process a few lesser established pitchers started to stand out in ways that I just couldn’t ignore. And thus, an article was born.

The pitchers profiled below have a few things in common. First, they’ve struggled a bit in at least one, if not a couple of their early starts, resulting in inflated and in some cases grotesquely high ERAs. Second, they all have underlying data that supports improvement. Lastly, they’re all relatively young, interesting, and have the potential to make an impact in deeper and perhaps even shallow formats.

Here are six underperforming pitchers whose advanced stats suggest they’re worth a second look, whether as waiver wire pickups or trade targets in your fantasy leagues.

Matthew Liberatore, SP STL – 3.93 ERA at the time of this article

His most recent start likely turned heads, but I was already grabbing shares before that. Despite a couple of rocky outings to open the season, Liberatore has been flashing above-average Stuff+ values, including an elite slider (112 Stuff+) and a devastating curveball that, as of today, boasts an eye-popping 144 Stuff+—one of the best pitches in baseball, especially among starting pitchers. Beyond those standout offerings, he mixes in a deep arsenal of average to slightly below-average secondary pitches, which help set up hitters for his show-stopping breaking balls.

Overall, his entire arsenal registers a Stuff+ of 104, paired with a Command+ of 106, making him one of the more balanced and effective pitchers in baseball early in 2025. His Pitching+ of 109, a composite of Stuff+ and Command+, would have ranked among the top 15 starting pitchers last season. (Yes, we’re still in small-sample territory, but Stuff+ stabilizes faster than traditional stats like ERA or WHIP, requiring fewer pitches to be reliable.)

On top of his impressive Stuff+ metrics, Liberatore boasts a minuscule walk rate (0.49 BB/9), and his 2.63 xFIP and 2.83 SIERA further underscore his quality start to the season. His 1.93 FIP ranks top 5 in baseball among starting pitchers.

It’s an exciting start to 2025 for the Cardinals’ former top prospect. While some regression is likely, we could be witnessing a true breakout—one that could pay dividends for the Cardinals and fantasy owners alike. He’s a must-add if still available on your waiver wire.

Hayden Wesneski, SP HOU – 4.00 ERA

Speaking of must-adds, Wesneski’s start to the season somewhat mirrors Liberatore’s. He’s also flashing two above-average offerings (119 Stuff+ slider and 105 Stuff+ change up), and while the overall arsenal hasn’t been as effective in terms of Stuff+ (96 Stuff+ overall), his command his been off the charts (112 Command+) and he’s been able to miss more bats (12.9 Swing-Strike%).

The Astros are really good at pitcher development, and Wesneski has the makings of their next big revelation. He needs to prove he can keep the ball in the park (2.5 HR/9), and he’s been very lucky on balls in play (.132 BABIP). However, the pieces are there for him to be a really good pitcher, and odds are you can either get him for free off waivers or cheaply in a trade. I’m heavily invested here, but not quite ready to fully bet the house just yet.

Ryne Nelson, SP/RP ARI – 4.50 ERA

I’ve been on the Nelson bandwagon since last season, when he started posting sneaky good Stuff+ numbers and even logged an impressive stretch of starts during the latter half of the year. Unfortunately, an injury deflated some of the optimism heading into 2025, and Nelson’s inability to win a spot in the DBacks rotation pretty much killed what was remaining of his value.

While Nelson has been primarily working in long relief to start the year, he is once again flashing high quality stuff (105 Stuff+ overall with three above average offerings) and his peripherals are excellent (9.00 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 = elite K/BB ratio), resulting in a crazy good 2.17 xFIP and 2.36 SIERA.

There’s no telling if or when Nelson will return to Arizona’s starting rotation. Given how well he is pitching, I imagine it will happen sooner than later. I got caught up in the negative Nelson narratives this spring, but he has quickly pitched himself back into my circle of trust. I’m buying shares anywhere I can, knowing he can help me even while in long relief (I love SP eligible relievers) and especially when he regains his rightful spot in Arizona’s starting rotation.

Landen Roupp, SP SFG – 4.80 ERA

I’m not exactly sure what will become of Roupp this season or beyond, but despite the 4.80 ERA he’s been pretty dominant to start the year. His 12 K/9 ratio is elite and easily supported by his elite 14.7 swing-strike ratio. His Stuff+ numbers don’t jump out at you (100 Stuff+), but his 110 Command+ and 111 Pitching+ certainly do—both being excellent and elite. He’s been pretty unlucky, with a .410 BABIP despite hitters logging low hard hit rates against him, and the 4.80 ERA reeks of misfortune too, based on his very favorable 3.10 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA to date.

Roupp is definitely worth a flier in all formats, especially if you covet strikeouts and wish to add some upside to your rotation. However, despite evidence that supports extreme bullishness, I’m not as confident here as I am with Liberatore and Wesneski. He could prove to be better than both, but he also could fall back into a bullpen role if he suffers a couple more shaky starts.

Luis L. Ortiz, SP CLE – 6.06 ERA

Ortiz entered the season with solid hype as a possible breakout starter, in large part due to his promising 3.32 ERA over 135.2 innings in 2024 and based on the fact he was joining the Cleveland Guardians—developer of arms, worker of miracles. Unfortunately, it’s been anything but a promising start to the year for Ortiz, whose 6.06 ERA is among the worst in baseball for starting pitchers who have thrown more than 10 innings. Many managers have probably already moved on, unwilling to tolerate such a high level of failure. However, one manager’s trash has the potential to be another’s treasure!

Look below the surface, and you’ll see Ortiz’s peripheral stats are solid (8.27 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9) and his 3.94 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA paint a much rosier picture and outlook overall. Beyond that, he’s throwing four above average pitchers according to Stuff+ and generating a fair amount of whiffs (11.1 SwingStrike%). He’s been hit pretty hard (92.3 EV) and needs to keep the ball in the yard (1.65 HR/9), but those numbers are likely to normalize over time, along with his ERA and overall performance.

Ortiz might have already turned the corner with his most recent start, throwing 5.2 innings, surrendering just 1 hit (a home run), walking 2 hitters, and striking out 10. The road ahead could be smooth or bumpy. Neither would surprise me. However, I do have faith that the end result will be solid, if not potentially spectacular, if Ortiz makes the appropriate adjustments.

Carmen Mlodzinski, SP PIT – 6.23 ERA

We are now solidly in deep dive, deep league, and heavy risk territory. I play in two 30 team dynasty leagues and Mlodzinski was not on my radar prior to researching this column. However, he quickly stood out as an interesting arm who could provide major value in deeper formats and potentially solid value in all should he turn a corner.

The biggest drivers of optimism for Mlodzinski are his current 3.01 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA, both markedly better than his cartoonishly high 6.23 ERA. His .415 BABIP against and 60.9 LOB% also serve as evidence that he has been tragically unlucky to start the year. Beyond the poor luck, there are also signs of talent and ability. He has flashed a really solid three pitch mix, with a well above average sinker (112 Stuff+), a quality slider (106 Stuff+), and change up (102 Stuff+). He also hasn’t given up a single barrel in 13 innings, which shows he’s doing something right to keep hitters off balance.

The downsides here are his command hasn’t been great (4.15 BB/9 and 98 Command+), and while his strikeout rate is above average (9.69 K/9) he’s really not making hitters chase (23.9 O-Swing%) or miss (7.4 Swing-Strike%) at rates supportive of a lot of strikeouts.

So, the metrics look rosy but some of the rate stats muddle the outlook. I’m willing to take some cheap shares of Mlodzinski in deeper formats, but will likely hold off on actually starting him until he strings together a couple solid starts. Tread lightly and with caution, but he’s at least worth tracking in deeper formats.