A couple of weeks ago I dug into 15 hitters I think are draft bargains (read here) heading into the 2025 season based on ability, upside, and ADP. Naturally, I threw around a bunch of nerdy stats along the way too.
This week, I’m flipping the script and zeroing in on starting pitchers.
Both strategically and philosophically, some managers (hint: me) prefer to acquire pitching on the relative cheap. This is in large part because we view them all as ticking time bombs — a pitch away from derailing yours and your favorite team’s season. That means I’ll almost never be the one drafting the Spencer Striders of the world. Or even the Gerrit Coles.
See what I did there?
But seriously, those were two of the top starters taken in most leagues last season. They were both injured for most or all of the season. Another of the best, Shohei Ohtani, was not drafted to pitch at all. Because he couldn’t pitch. At all.
Of course, not all pitchers get hurt. And we all have to draft at least a few. I personally prefer to draft them later and in larger numbers than others. That makes the bargain bin very important to me. It’s where you can get ahead on the pitching side of the game without risking falling completely behind.
A lot of my analysis in this article will be focused on the following stats and metrics:
Stuff+: Can be a cumulative measure or an individual measure of each pitch type. Measures how good a pitcher’s pitches are based on their velocity, movement, and spin
Location+: The command/control equivalent of Stuff+— 100 is positive, 105+ is excellent to elite Pitching+: Combines Stuff+ and Location+ to rate a pitcher’s overall skill—100 is positive, 105+ is excellent to elite SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average): Predicts how many runs a pitcher should allow independent of factors outside of a pitcher’s control and based on strikeouts, walks, and ground balls— reads and is scaled like ERA K/9 rate: How many batters a pitcher strikes out per nine innings— 8 is good, 9 is very good, above 10 is elite BB/9 rate: Tracks how many walks a pitcher gives up per nine innings— 3.75 is solid, below 3 is good, anything around low 2 or below it is elite Swing-Strike%: the rate at which a pitcher makes batters swing and miss at their pitches— anything over 10 is good ***The Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ metric data referenced in this article all comes from FanGraphs. |
Here are 9 of my favorite draft bargains (starting pitchers edition) for 2025. They are listed by Fantrax ADP, not preference:
Cristopher Sanchez, SP PHI – 171.02 ADP (according to Fantrax)
Sanchez posted a 109 Pitching+ in 2024 (according to FanGraphs), which was good for 17th overall in baseball. He relies more on inducing ground balls (57.4 GB%) and low quality contact than sheer overpowering stuff. This formula has worked well for him the past couple of seasons as evidenced by his 3.44 ERA and 3.32 ERA in 2023 and 2024 respectively, with similar SIERA averages to validate the results.
According to recent reports, Sanchez’s velocity is up another 2-3 ticks this spring as well, which only adds to his upside and appeal.
He does occasionally go through stretches where he is too hittable, but the elite ground ball rates help minimize the damage. The strikeout rate is far from elite and leaves much to be desired, likely playing a big role in his bargain priced ADP. While I love pitchers who rack up strikeouts, I value stability and predictability more. Sanchez offers that in spades.
You’ll see me say this more than once this article, but if his velocity gains stick leading to higher K totals, he could ascend to one of the games better SPers. Even if the gains don’t (odds are he’s able to ramp up his velocity because he’s only scheduled to throw a couple of innings), he’s still plenty good and well worth a pick anytime beyond pick 125.
Ryan Pepiot, SP TBR – 173.38 ADP
Pepiot posted a 107 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ last season, both of which ranked among the game’s top 25 starters. His strikeout rate was just below 10 per 9 innings, which also ranks among the game’s best, validating the quality of his stuff and his general ability to dominate hitters.
Despite all that and the 3.60 ERA he posted over 130 IP, he’s currently the 57th starter (give or take) coming off the board on average in fantasy drafts. That, by definition, makes him an incredible bargain.
Pepiot does need to prove he can go deeper into games and shoulder an innings workload in the 175-200 IP range. Shouldering a load has been an issue for Rays starters the past few years, so Pepiot does not come without risk. However, he’s still a massive bargain around pick 170 and I would not hesitate to hold off a round or two extra on a starter to load up on bats knowing I can land Pepiot as my second or third starter depending on league size and format.
Pepiot and Sanchez are really good pitchers with top 25 pitcher upside and ability going around pick 170 in drafts this spring. Grab ‘em both if you can!
Aaron Civale, SP MIL – 293.62 ADP
Civale is a good-stuff (108 Stuff+), not-so-good command (95 Control+) starter who seems to suffer the types of ups and downs you would expect from a good-stuff, not-so-good command starter. His 2024 was a tale of two halves, er… two teams. In 17 starts with the Rays, he posted a 5.07 ERA, giving up way too many hits and struggling to keep the ball in the park. Once he was dealt to Milwaukee, a switch seemed to flip, and he closed out the year with a 3.53 ERA over 14 starts.
Civale doesn’t have a great track record. In fact, the only thing consistent about him has been his inconsistency. However, the Brewers do have a strong track record of getting the best, or at least more, out of their pitchers. While he might still frustrate from time to time, I like Civale to be more Jekyll than Hyde this season, posting a sub 4.00 ERA and solid ratios. A depth guy you can hang your hat on. Just not too firmly.
David Festa, SP MIN – 312.63 ADP
Festa’s 4.90 ERA over 64 innings in 2024 masked, in many ways, a really impressive debut for the tall and lanky righty, creating an awesome buying opportunity for those in the know.
Not only did he post an impressive 3.58 SIERA as a rookie, he did it with a K/9 rate near 11, making him one of the more interesting targets for high strikeout numbers and sub 4.00 ERA this season. How many guys going outside of the top 200 have that kind of upside and ability? Probably none, especially with some track record of success at the big league level.
Festa represents one of the better starting pitching bargains this spring. His stuff number didn’t pop off the page last season, but his 102 Pitching+ was above average and there’s always room for improvement in the ever evolving world of added velocity, spin, and pitch mix optimization.
Festa-vus for the rest of us!
Jose Soriano, SP LAA – 345.4 ADP
I typically hesitate to recommend players on the Angels. They do a relatively poor job with player development and as a whole have been a less-than-stellar operation across the board. However, it’s hard to ignore a guy like Soriano who has always had enticing stuff — four above average pitches according to Stuff+ including a borderline elite sinker (119 Stuff+) — and last season seemed to make major strides in the location/command department. This combo contributed to a 109 Pitching+ which if you remember is comparable to Pepiot and Sanchez above and could potentially make him one of the better pitchers in baseball if everything comes together.
Soriano did post a 4.03 SIERA in 113 IP last season and his 7.73 K/9 rate was well below what you’d expect from a pitcher with his arsenal. This speaks more to a pitch mix/optimization issue which again makes me nervous because the Angels aren’t great at that stuff.
That said, you’ll be hard pressed to find a starting pitcher with this much ability and upside this late in your draft. He’s a worthy flier who could pay off in a big way— with a floor here is high enough that there’s pretty much no risk, outside of the normal caveat that he could get hurt, like pretty much every pitcher in baseball.
Ryan Weathers, SP MIA – 355.06 ADP
Weathers received some buzz for shedding 25 pounds this off-season, hinting at an increased commitment to his diet, conditioning, and presumably his craft. Those assumptions have only been validated in recent days by reports of his fastball ticking up 2-3 MPH this spring.
He already had a pretty impressive breakout in 2024, posting a 3.63 ERA, albeit in an injury-shortened season. His peripherals were solid too, with an 8.31 K/9 and 2.49 BB/9 rate.
Weathers flashed an elite slider (126 Stuff+) and above average change up (101 Stuff+) last season. Should the 2-3 MPH increase in velocity bring improvements to his below average fastball (95 Stuff+), Weathers could REALLY break out in a big way in 2025. You probably won’t get him as cheap today as you could have a week ago, but odds are he’ll be a discount no matter where you take him.
Zebby Matthews, SP MIN – 412.5 ADP
Matthews is another promising young starter generating a fair amount of buzz this spring as a result of increased velocity. He probably would’ve made this list without the increase after posting a 3.78 SIERA in a very small 37.2 IP sample last season. While he got hit hard, he missed more bats than expected (10.27 K/9 and 11.3 SwStr%), and both his slider (105 Stuff+) and curveball (106 Stuff+) rated above average.
If the velocity gains stick around, we could be looking at a starter with three above average or better offerings and well above average or better command. Sign me up for that around pick 400! And 300!
Casey Mize, SP DET – 439.49 ADP
Most of us know Mize as the former number one overall pick who has largely pitched like anything but. He’s either been injured, ineffective, or both most of his big league career. After missing nearly all of 2022 and 2023 to elbow surgery, Mize took his first big step back to legitimacy last season, throwing harder than ever (95.7 MPH), missing a decent number of bats (9.7 SwingStrike%), and posting a semi-respectable 4.33 SIERA. He also showed an above average sinker (105 Stuff+), splitter (103 Stuff+), and control (106 Location+), resulting in a very respectable 103 Pitching+.
Those positive indicators put him on a few radars heading into this spring, where he is yet another guy flashing better than ever velocity, raising hopes he can finally live up to the hype that made him the top pick in the 2018 MLB draft.
Will Warren, SP NYY – 734.18 ADP
Forgive me if I sound like a broken record, but Warren is another guy turning heads this spring. However, that’s not the only reason he’s on the list. He’s been on many people’s radars the past year or so for posting among the best Stuff+ numbers in the upper minors. He was able to carry over some of the nastiness to the majors when he debuted last season, flashing multiple solid or better offerings including a well above average cutter (118 Stuff+) and slider (109 Stuff+). His 103 Location+ speaks to his ability to command those offerings too, resulting in a more than solid 105 Pitching+.
That was last year. Apparently, he looks even better this spring.
Of course, spring training is spring training, so it’s important not to get too excited about anything we see. However, like a couple other guys on this list, Warren was worth a late flier before spring started. Now, he’s a guy to target with some conviction. I certainly have.
