Every year when we approach spring training and I hear the words “pitchers and catchers report”, I’m reminded of the old Counting Crows song, Long December. The first few lyrics of the song go something like “It’s been a long December and there’s reason to believe, maybe this year will be better than the last.” Has there ever been a lyric written that so perfectly personifies an unrelated topic, like baseball?
That’s right, the new baseball season is here! The winter, and the baseball off-season — free agency included — moved at a snail’s pace, as usual. But just like every other year, hope springs eternal and spring brings hope.
“Maybe this year will be better than the last” – right?
Unless you won your league. Then, you hope it goes about the same.
No matter how you faired in leagues last season, the road to fantasy supremacy in 2025 starts now and I’m here to help. I’ve spent much of the off-season researching players and diving into piles and piles — or columns and columns — of data in anticipation of the start of the fantasy baseball season. I aim to spend the next few weeks of spring training sharing some of my thoughts and predictions based on what I found.
My first article of the season will focus on hitters. I won’t waste your time telling you that you need to draft Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto. Instead, I plan to focus on players who are both underrated and undervalued to help you gain an edge in your leagues.
Here are 15 of my favorite draft bargains entering the 2024 season (hitters only, for now). These are players I’m targeting heavily because I think they’re undervalued relative to their ADP and could greatly outperform expectations for one reason or another. I’m not 100% certain all of them will pop, but I would be shocked if several of them did not.
Oneil Cruz, SS/OF PIT – 56.34 ADP
I’m going to keep this short and sweet because I’m pretty sure I wrote about Cruz last season. Just look at his Baseball Savant profile page and feel free to compare it to the rest of baseball’s biggest sluggers. There are like 10 hitters in baseball with nearly 99 percentiles across virtually all power indicators and they’re all the most elite hitters in baseball. By the end of this season, Cruz could be part of that group too.
Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B BAL – 115.32 ADP
Speaking of seeing red, checkout Westburg’s Baseball Savant profile page:
That’s an elite profile, especially for a 2B. Equally impressive is the fact that Westbrook hit for a .353 xwOBA last season, which ranked second among 2B who logged more than 400 at bats. Beyond the obvious power, what I also find interesting about Westburg is his sprint speed, which last season was a shocking 91 percentile. He’s never been known as a burner, but this is a player who apart from last season had stolen 10 or more bases every year of his professional career. He likely would’ve hit or exceeded that number last season had he not missed 55 games to injury. That’s right, Westburg missing time in 2024 in many ways obscured what likely would’ve been a 25 HR, 10 SB rookie season. If Westburg is able to play a full season in 2025, I think 25-10 is his floor and I don’t think it’s absurd to expect something closer to 30 HR and 12 or so stolen bases. Those are 2024 Manny Machado numbers, making Westburg an absolute steal around pick 115.
Bryson Stott, 2B/SS PHI – 150.01 ADP
I’m generally a sucker for players who rarely whiff and consistently demonstrate a strong understanding of the strike zone. These are typically some of the best hitters in baseball, but they often have limited power which in turn tends to limit their fantasy value. Heading into last season, Scott was considered by most a top 100 player and perhaps a top 75 hitter in fantasy. He got off to a great start to the year and I paid 200 cents on the dollar to acquire him in one of my big dynasty leagues. Then he stopped hitting and I quickly lost patience. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and I’ve done enough digging into player profiles that I’m quite confident Stott will see his BABIP rebound from .275 last season to back over .300, resulting in an average closer to .280 with 12 HR and 30+ stolen bases. That’s easily a top 75-100 season and a great return for a guy who plays two premium positions and can be landed around pick 150.
Lars Nootbaar, OF STL – 266.67 ADP
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 4-5 times? Nootbaar has a bit of a cult following in the analytics world. Based on nearly all the important metrics, he should be a stud. Last season he hit for a .355 xwOBA, despite having what even his most ardent supporters would consider another disappointing year. Disappointing as it was, his EV was just short of 92 mph. His Barrel % was close to 10. His Baseball Savant page, had red all over the place. Just look at that beauty:
For a brief period last season Nootbaar looked like he was finally turning a corner (he had a .367 wOBA in May). Then he got hurt. Again. He did come back in the second half and had a great final few weeks of the season, posting a .416 wOBA in September and October. These two months provided a glimpse into the type of player many people think Nootbaar can be. Until he learns to elevate the ball a bit more, I would bet more on his May production than Sept/Oct, but even that version is a well above hitter and an absolute bargain around pick 266. I’m willing to take another chance he finally makes good on his excellent hitting profile, but even if he only matches his Steamer project of .254/.355/.435 with 18 HR and 9 steals, that plenty good for where he’s being drafted. If I were more confident in his health, I would bang the over on those numbers. But I’m not, so I’ll just bet he’s good and still a bargain.
Jung Hoo Lee, OF SF – 281.98
Based on what (little) we saw from Jung Hoo Lee last season, he appears to be a middle class version of Steven Kwan, if not something a bit better than middle class. Take a look at their Baseball Savant profiles and you’ll see the similarities. While they aren’t identical, I think it’s fair to give Lee the benefit of the doubt given he was likely still adjusting to a brand new league and better pitching prior to injuring his shoulder. That injury forced him to have surgery and miss the bulk of the 2024 season, thus clouding our understanding of how good and healthy he will be in 2025. These types of injuries can be tricky because they can sap the power of even the mightiest of sluggers. Nobody would ever mistake Lee for mighty. Should the injury sap even a little bit of his power, we could be looking at a player who hits more like Nick Madrigal (gasp!) than even Kwan. That would be catastrophic for Lee, the Giants, and fantasy managers willing to take a chance on his recovery. Fortunately, you don’t have to pay a fortune for the chance that he comes back fully healthy and puts up a very solid fantasy season. I’ll go with the Steamer project here of .293/.350/.437 with 14 HR and 13 steals. Kwan-esque, as some would say!
Gabriel Moreno, C ARI – 285.37
I feel like I’m president of the Moreno fan club at this point. Not that he doesn’t have his fair share of believers, but my affection for him borders on irrational. Maybe you’ve heard me say this before, but I love hitters who rarely whiff and consistently demonstrate a strong understanding of the strike zone. Those qualities are incredibly rare for catchers, outside of the absolute elite. That is what makes me so bullish on Moreno, because he’s already exhibiting elite hitter traits in terms of his chase, whiff, K, and BB rates. Just look at his Baseball Savant page:
Will Moreno ever join the elite class of hitting catchers? He certainly could, though he’ll need to start lifting the ball more to up his power production. He does hit the ball hard — he had a 90 mph EV last season — but to this point it hasn’t translated to home runs or big power numbers. Fortunately, we’re still talking about a young player who only recently turned 25 years old — very young for a catcher. I think more power is coming and while I wouldn’t project him for 20+ HR anytime soon, I do think 12-15 is reasonable. Given his elite approach and strong contact skills, that could be enough to propel him into the elite class of hitting catchers.
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B ATH – 332.49
Soderstrom is my favorite sleeper, breakout player, bargain, whatever label you want to use for a guy who is going to be potentially awesome. Yes, I deliberately used the word “awesome”. Not good. Awesome. Soderstrom has suffered from a bit of prospect fatigue for at least a couple years now. Prior to that he was widely considered one of the most highly rated prospects in baseball. It’s easy to overlook the fact that he played all of 2024 at the tender age of 22. Despite being one of the youngest players in baseball, he posted a .348 xwOBA with a 91.9 EV and a 14.6 Barrel Rate. Both awesome for any player, but especially a 22 year old. There’s that word “awesome” again. Not many players hit the ball with that kind of authority at such a young age. Wyatt Langford didn’t do it and he’s a month older than Soderstrom. Now, I’m not crazy enough to argue Soderstrom is better than Langford. I think Langford is going to be awesome too and has some traits that will very likely make him much more valuable in fantasy circles. But Soderstrom is going to be awesome and I will do everything in my power to roster him, especially given how cheaply he’s going in redraft leagues. I think a healthy Soderstrom posts a .255/.330/.480 season with 25 HR and solid counting stats in 2025 and that’s just the beginning of what should be a — you guessed it — “awesome” career.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B/2B TB – 357.82
Aranda flashed some really good underlying skills as a hitter last season. He had a .362 xwOBA, 91.9 EV, and 16.5 Barrel Rate. He greatly improved his strikeout rate and started hunting the right pitches with greater frequency. These improvements bode well for the 26 year old former top 100 prospect. Some players take longer than others to develop and Aranda seems to be finally putting things together in Tampa. Now, it’s worth noting that these gains came almost entirely against RHP’ing and that despite talk him him getting more at bats against LHP, Aranda still has much to prove before he shakes his reputation as a platoon player. Even if he only does most of his damage against RHP, he still has the potential to have a big impact on fantasy teams, especially considering where he’s currently being drafted. The promise of more at bats against LHP will likely lead to a spike in ADP, but he’s likely still a bargain even 100 picks higher than his current ADP. I’m expecting better luck on balls in play (.264 BABIP is totally out of line with his batted ball profile) and a batting line of .250/.330/.480 with 18 HR and runs and RBI in the 70-80 range. I’ll sign up for that anywhere outside of the top 200.
Alejandro Kirk, C TOR – 361.23
See Moreno’s report above. The two are virtually identical. Kirk projecting to get the lion’s share of starts at catcher for the Blue Jays this season only helps his cause. Sign me up for .270/.340/.410 with 12 HR and solid counting stats.
Pavin Smith, 1B/OF ARI – 407.28
Smith is mainly here because he had one of the highest xwOBA in all of baseball last season, albeit in a limited sample of 158 plate appearances. He basically had an incredible last month of the season and given his above average batted ball data I think it’s very possible he was able to find a new gear due to some kind of mechanical adjustment or change in approach. I would not, however, bet on him repeating his .395 xwOBA in 2025. If he does, he will single-handedly win leagues. I find him to be a really difficult player to project because any projection based on last season’s production and batted ball data would make him easily a top 50-75 player and I’m not quite there yet with him. That said, if we’re getting a Brent Rooker type of breakout this season it’s likely coming from Smith. And if it doesn’t happen, you’re probably still getting a useful player who may sit against LHP a fair bit and put up an above average line for a quality platoon hitter. Smith is worth a flier later in drafts.
We’ve officially made it to the part of the list where my confidence levels fade, but I would feel remiss not mentioning the next four players because I think they could have a real impact if things break the way I think they could for each of them based on some of their 2024 data.
Nick Yorke, 2B PIT – 413.45
I think Yorke’s limited 2024 sample is a bit noisy, so I won’t invest too many words on him, but he did post a .377 xwOBA with a surprisingly good 89.7 EV and a great 15.4 Barrel Rate. That’s enough to get my attention and make him worthy of a flier at the end of drafts, especially given how shallow the 2B position is.
Alek Thomas, OF ARI – 492.47
Thomas once again failed to make his mark at the big league level last season. He couldn’t stay healthy or hit the ball in the air enough to make an impact. Look under the surface though and there is reason to believe better days lie ahead. Thomas had a .337 wxOBA last season and a 91.7 EV. He definitely needs to start lifting the ball with much greater frequency, but if he can it seems likely he will be a useful fantasy player. This is probably the guy I have the least confidence in on the entire list, but between his prospect pedigree and ability to hit the ball hard, it’s still too early to give up on this former top prospect.
Alan Roden, OF TOR – 798.79
As you can see from his ADP, Roden is still relatively unknown in fantasy circles. He’s becoming a more popular player in deeper league formats and especially dynasties, in large part because word is starting to get out about his advanced approach and strong EV data in the upper minors. While he’s never been considered a top prospect, this is the kind of minor league profile that tends to exceed expectations and outperform more hyped players who rank in the top 100. I’m not expecting huge impact, especially this year, but Roden is a solid sleeper worth keeping an eye on this spring.
Tyler Freeman, 2B/3B/SS/OF CLE – 804.08
Freeman is another former top 100 prospect who hasn’t quite lit the world on fire his first few dips in the big league pool. Wait, fire can’t burn in pools. No wonder he’s been a disappointment!
The Guardians gave Freeman a pretty long leash last season and while he wasn’t great, he did hit 7 HR and steal 11 bases in 118 games. This despite a horribly unlucky .227 BABIP which tanked his average and limited his time on the base paths. If Freeman gets another shot to play regularly in 2025, better fortune could bring a 10 HR, 15 stolen base season. That seems like it could even be underselling his upside based on how close he came to that in his first extended go as a big leaguer last year. Freeman’s batted ball data isn’t all that impressive, so it’s hard to project more than modest power production. However, this is a player with tons of position versatility, above average speed, and borderline elite contact skills. At a minimum, he should be useful, but there’s a chance he’s just downright good and next year we’re talking about him as a staple in fantasy leagues. I’m not sure I’d bet on it, but he’s certainly worth a flier at the end of drafts, especially in deeper formats and dynasties.
