It was either that or Wanderwall. Yeah, I like Oasis too, all their two songs and the bowl cuts with sunglasses, they just smell like the late 90’s… and you know, the above title may liken Wander Franco to a whale. Still, it just fits literally, as the old idiom goes; to a location far away that is appealingly unknown and mysterious. Kinda like my love-making. And what is a more apt description for this talented shortstop that already finds himself with a hot start in his first five games, hitting 400/455/700 with two stolen bases and three doubles? Caveats of a still a very young season aside, the pedigree is obvious, though what we can expect still remains muddled as it always has. Into the great blue Wander indeed.
Coming off an injury-plagued season in 2022, just a year after his MLB debut, Franco only has roughly 650 plate appearances to his credit. But that debut back in June of 2021 included a 288/347/463 triple-slash in 70 games as a 20-year-old, you could say the sky was the limit. However, the aforementioned injuries in 2022, mostly dealing with his quad (even with some complications during Spring Training) and his wrist, injuries that continue to be a cloud on his perceived and actual value. And it’s no coincidence that both those injuries affected his skillset in very specific ways, the quadriceps strain hampering his speed and a broken hamate bone (mmm Ham) after getting hit in the wrist with a pitch, an injury that required surgery. By the time he was healthy, it was already September, but in those 25 games he hit an impressive 322/381/471 in an otherwise disappointing year.
One might think that with all these speed bumps there would be ultimately a price to pay (perhaps less so during opening week), whether that be in his continued development or worse yet, a harbinger of things to come… not the first or last time we would see amazing talent go the wayside to an injury-prone career. Alarmist thinking no doubt, but a reality. However, worst-case scenario aside, it’s important to realize that when he was able to play in 2022, his batting approach remained consistent, providing a top-five strikeout rate and zone contact rate. His patience (while still being a bit swing-happy_ at the plate and ability to continue to make contact at this level is very encouraging.
“I still love Wander, I think at some point he’s going to have a 25/17/.300 season and people are going to wish they rostered him in every league. You are paying retail this year to find out, though. Doesn’t make it bad, it’s just facts. If his name was Carl Finger, who had the projections of 16/10, Finger wouldn’t budge off the board for 50 more picks.” – Grey Albright.
Grey’s summary makes a lot of sense. Despite his 2022, we’re still talking about a player with an incredible pedigree, topping top-100 prospect lists in 2020 and 2021, including his productive rookie season, and the price was seemingly still set on those facts. As Grey mentions, Franco could end up having a great year, obviously not a sure thing by any means based on what we’ve discussed (I’m just pretending we’re having a conversation, totally normal), but the fact is that if you wanted a chance, you had to pay for it. There’s nothing wrong with that if it works, and with Franco, it just might.
Many would point out Franco’s average exit velo, hard-hit, and barrel rates taking a hit last year as a bad omen. He hit more grounders and fewer fly balls with a lower average launch angle. A few points on this, first let’s remember that Wander is still super young, still just 22, and scouting reports from all over the industry consistently tell the story of developing power as he fills out. The speed and doubles power is there, with the ceiling for more. Second and perhaps the most important factor; good ole health. Ah yes, darkness, my old friend. Don’t forget that wrist injuries directly affect a hitter’s everything and no doubt was an issue driving his lack of power. As we move further away from that surgery, the results should begin to reflect his continued growth.
Analysis this early in the season is just so difficult to produce for all the obvious reasons. But in terms of Franco, the first week seems more a sigh of relief in many ways, a reminder that his talent is unmistakable and still there. A little breadcrumb of proof in concept. And even if you paid full price for it, there are just some players, some talents that are worth the risk. His position, his age (moreso for keeper leagues) and his robust skillset (speed, hit-tool, eventual power) are all reasons to take that chance, but the fact that he has the potential and ability to exceed those expectations and more than makes this juice worth the squeeze. (How I also make love?)
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
