Yeah, I see where your head’s going Colorado, but that title becomes clearer (from the eye drops?) when you think of one Riley Greene and his current struggles at the plate. Add to the fact of the wide range of opinions during the preseason, and the idea of moving on, even this early in the season, is very real. And while I’m not one to puff-puff-pass on a pun, one really has to wonder if 50 at-bats, all be it not so great ones, are enough of a sample size to make a judgment.
With just four RBIs on a .231 BA in 13 games, Greene has shown very little progress in the new season. Still a very young player (only age 22), we’re not far away at all when he was hailed as one of the top prospects in baseball just a season ago. Called up last June 18th, he hit .253 with five homeruns, but produced 46 runs and 42 RBIs in 93 games. And while the power might seem a bit pedestrian, he carried a 9.1 xHR and 60th percentile barrel rate, showing the potential for more, especially with Comerica Park’s new dimensions.
However, even with an encouraging .253/.321/.362 debut triple slash, his 28.7 K% was clearly a red flag. Especially when you factor in his career minor league rate of 26%. He swings and strikes out a lot, and when he doesn’t, he enjoys hitting the ball into the ground, posting a 56.8% ground ball rate in that same 2022 season. And with a BABIP of .354 during that time, his batting average may have been somewhat inflated as well. And while I mentioned the positives of a kindler and gentler ballpark to hitters, Comerica still remains a pitcher-friendly field, and adding to that, the Detroit lineup still remains, well, pretty bad. So when you take everything we’ve seen so far, add in a lineup that was projected to score the second least amount of runs in the league, and remind yourself that Greene’s high BABIP and bottom 10% strike rate, you kinda get the feeling we are where we’re supposed to be.
But while others are zigging, I’m going to zag. Or should I be zigging while you zag? Either way, when you look at his propensity to swing and miss, I find it hard to believe that a hitter who makes this much contact can have such a huge hole in his swing. While of course there’s a chance that this could be just who he is, I think it’s just too weird to have a profile where you chase fewer pitches than the league average, make more contact than the league average, and still struck out in a third of your at-bats. And I’m not the only one who thinks this! At the end of the day, it’s just the basic principles of baseball… regression to whatever. Granted, it’s a little silly when you think about it; he can’t be this bad so surely he’ll improve. But that’s my take so of course it was going to be silly. And of course, it’s always hot.
Take for instance his Hard%, HR/FB staying in line with his norms. He’s also hitting the ball in the air a bit more, a 33.3 FB% versus a 23.9% in 2022, generating a 1.55 GB/FB ratio that is already the best of his short career. True, his plate discipline is still a mess, I won’t hide from that fact, but he’s still seeing an improvement to his ISO, xSLG and his launch angle has jumped significantly. And yeah, still all of this is hard to digest with the small sample size omnipresent, don’t @ me bro… But I’m still willing to bet that he’s better than what he’s done and there’s really nowhere he has to go but up. That’s science baby!
Truly a mileage may vary guy, it’s okay if he’s not a fit for you right now. As anyone who knows my personal zig-zag routes, I tend to be patient with players right out the gate. Statistically and physically, it generally takes several weeks for hitters to catch up to pitchers early in the season, it has always been the way of such things. But I admit, there’s a strong case to move on in certain leagues and when you take position into consideration, there are just so many options in the outfield that it almost seems like a self-own if there’s something obviously better out there on the wire.
However, if you find yourself in a position where you can wait a bit, I’d see what happens in the next few weeks and how Greene responds. I don’t think anyone questions the potential, but the key to unlocking it is what gives us well deserved pause. I’d honestly give him a few more weeks to turn that key, if only to keep the metaphor alive, but no one is going to have an issue if you don’t puff and just pass.
And they say creativity is dead…
Do they say that? Or maybe they just say it to me…
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
