We’re now 6 years into Byron Buxton’s big-league career and it feels like we still don’t know who he is. You know, like when you’re in a long-term relationship and then you wake up and realize that you can’t completely rule out that the person next to you is a serial killer? Anybody else been there? I mean, I haven’t but I’ve seen a lot of Lifetime movies like that. Anyways Byron, we can only Netflix and chill for so long until you show me your true colors. Are you an elite base stealer who I can count on for 30+ steals in a full year? Are you a powerful slugger who belongs in the same breath as Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo? Or are you (gulp) an amazingly sexy power-speed threat who could finally put it all together and help me win a fantasy baseball championship in 2021?
WOMP WOMP
Y’all know the Buxton story by now. He’s the former #1-ranked prospect who’s shown occasional flashes of brilliance but hasn’t been able to stay on the field due to injury. The injuries have been varied and plentiful, as Buxton has yet to put together a season of more than 511 plate appearances (back in 2017.) There was hope coming into 2020 that Buxton could finally give us a full season of a shortened season, but even that was too much to ask for. Buxton injured his foot during Summer Training, came back quicker than expected, but then proceeded to land on the IL in August with a left shoulder injury. The shoulder injury is particularly alarming since this is the same shoulder that Buxton had surgery on in September 2019. In addition to this recurring shoulder injury, Buxton has previously missed time with arm, foot, knee, and hand/wrist, and concussion issues. Are there any body parts left? Seriously, I can teach my daughter human anatomy simply by pulling up Buxton’s page on Derek Rhoads’ injury timeline tool (shout out to Derek aka @drhoa3 for making this awesome resource available for free.) The bottom line is that Buxton is a yuuuuuge injury risk heading into 2021. So why are we even considering him in fantasy this year?
I GOT THE POWER
Let’s backtrack a little bit and re-examine Buxton’s 2020. Yes, there were those 2 injuries that limited Buxton to 135 plate appearances. But we need to talk about what he did in that limited sample. 13 home runs. 13.5% barrel rate. 47.9% hard-hit rate. 34.7% Dynamic Hard-Hit rate. 10.4% Blast rate. Maybe I’m making this a little more dramatic than it needs to be with the short, incomplete sentences but the point is that those numbers are really impressive. While the quality of contact skills may be eye-opening, those who paid close attention to Buxton’s 2019 may not be totally blown away by Buxton’s transformation into a masher. We started to see these signs back then, as Buxton improved his power numbers across the board, hitting 10 home runs with a .251 ISO in 295 plate appearances in 2019. To provide some context to how impressive his power has been, let’s take the limited sample we have from 2019 and 2020 and smush them together. Combining those two season would give Buxton a .274 ISO, which would put him right in the middle of a Joey Gallo (.279) and Aaron Judge (.273) sandwich (wow, that’s a lot of man). Considering that Buxton started off his career as a wiry center-fielder, his eventual transformation into a legitimate power threat is almost as incredible as the transformation of Tom Brady’s jawline over the past 20 years.
The modern-day Benjamin Button
It’s important to note that the improved power output didn’t put a damper on Buxton’s speed, as he still displayed 99th percentile sprint speed in 2020. However, that sprint speed did not translate into what us fantasy gamers actually care about, as Buxton only had 2 stolen bases in 3 attempts in 2020. Was that due to lack of opportunity, team philosophy, or personal choice? As with many things in life, there’s no definitive answer, which means we have to go into 2021 with that uncertainty looming over Buxton’s fantasy outlook.
SWING AND A MISS
Okay, we already talked about that big-ass elephant in the middle of the room (injury history) but now it’s time we talk about that giraffe standing in the corner: Buxton’s plate discipline. Those past two seasons we talked about? Yeah, they produced a lot of power but they also came with a ton of swing and miss. In 2020, Buxton’s swinging strike rate was 17.4% and his O-Swing% (pitches swung on outside of the strike zone) was a whopping 51.2%.This contributed to a measly 1.5% walk and according to Alex Chamberlain’s pitch leaderboard, his deserved walk percentage was -3.3%! I don’t even know how that’s possible. Like if you have a -3.3% walk percentage, do you have a +3.3% sit percentage? All of this stuff confuses me. Anyways, the poor plate discipline has been a trend for Buxton, as his plate discipline has progressively gotten worse throughout his career. Buxton is essentially turning into a “grip it and rip it” power hitter and it’s hard to imagine that this approach is sustainable over the long-term.
CONTEXT
One of the negatives that we’ve had to factor into Buxton’s fantasy outlook over the past few years is the fact that the Twins have mostly buried him at the bottom of their lineup. The 2020 brought a glimmer of hope in this area for Buxton, as he was slotted in at 7th or higher in all but one game in September. Buxton and his -3.3% deserved walk percentage will probably never be allowed near the top of the order but does Buxton move to the middle of the lineup if he continues to display the skills of an elite slugger? Roster Resource currently projects Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff to hit 5th and 6th respectively in the Twins lineup, with Buxton slotting into 7-hole. I don’t know about that y’all, I think it’s more likely that Buxton slots in ahead of those 2 players to begin the season. Just know, however, that Buxton’s poor plate discipline can lend itself to extended cold streaks, which would potentially lead to the Twins burying Buxton at the bottom of the lineup again.
PROJECTIONS/DRAFT COST
What we’ve discussed to this point may have you completely out on Buxton. Injury risk, poor plate discipline uncertainty about his stolen bases. I get it. But just waitaseckin because Buxton’s 2021 projections may make you reconsider. Rudy’s 2021 Razzball Steamer projections have Buxton penciled in for 25 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .263 batting average in 485 at-bats. Despite all of Buxton’s warts, Larry David would agree that his overall projection is prettay prettay good. Early drafters also seem to believe in Buxton, as he’s currently going off the board at pick 108 according to NFBC Draft Champions ADP data since January 15th. Interestingly, his price has risen quite a bit since last year, as Buxton was going at an average of pick 168 in last year’s NFBC Main Event. Is that price increase warranted? Was that tone in which you spoke to your mother when you were 15 years old warranted? Probably not, but life is full of nuance so we need a little more context before we can answer these questions.
THE VERDICT
Let’s get this out of the way: if you’re playing in an OBP league, Buxton gets a huge downgrade since his atrocious plate skills will negate a lot of the benefits of rostering him in that format. However, in a 10-12 team league I’d be willing to take some shots on him. I understand the insane injury risk but I also feel pretty good about the stats that Buxton will bank for me during the time that he is (hopefully) playing. Even if/when he gets injured, you can replace him with an outfielder from the waiver wire and add that player’s stats to what Buxton has already given you (looking at you Robbie Deliciousman). In a 15-teamer, however, I’m probably staying away from Buxton due to the fact that the replacement value is not as high in this format. My stance might change if I’m in a large-field tournament-type competition, as I would be intrigued by the possibility of capturing the upside of a peak Buxton season.
You may retort with “Well, that’s not likely to happen, Torres.” But see, you need to expand your mind a little bit. Have you watched The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, that movie about the guy who ages in reverse? What if Byron Buxton’s career follows the same trajectory as that dude? What if Buxton was injured in the earliest stages of his career but defies conventional science and gets healthier as he ages? Would there be any reason for this other than the fact that their names both contain an alliteration? No! In all seriousness though, there is the possibility that Buxton avoids major injury this year, whether that be due to pure luck or other factors such as better training, conditioning, or getting on the TB12 plan. If things do break right health-wise, Buxton would likely be a bona-fide fantasy stud. We’re eagerly drafting Luis Robert in the first 3 rounds, right? I’m not sure if that’s right or wrong but can we say that there’s a huge difference between Robert’s and Buxton’s underlying skills? The correct answer is “no.”
So we’re over 1500 words into this article and as you can see, I’m still pretty torn on what to do with Byron Buxton. Could he be a serial killer? What’s his love language? Does he even “get” me? Screw it, I’m just going to go back to Netflix’ing and chilling and revisit this in a couple years. By then, let’s hope Byron has shown me who he really is, I’ve stopped watching s*****Lifetime movies, and Tom Brady has officially completed his transformation into a cyborg.
Super Bowl Pick: Bucs +3.5
