For my final article of the 2025 season, I once again look ahead to offseason drafts. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve heard lots of industry chatter about Ozzie Albies and Anthony Volpe. Both have had disappointing seasons, and when established names underperform their draft price in any given season, I’m usually ready to jump in to draft them at the next season’s discount. Prior to this week, though, I wasn’t completely sure how I felt about Albies and Volpe for next year, so I decided to take a closer look at their numbers. Here’s what I found.
As usual, all stats I list are as of the end of the day on Tuesday, 9/16. If you’d like to check receipts on how I felt about these guys during preseason drafts earlier this year, here are my 3/20/25 initial ranks with blurbs for both players.
Ozzie Albies
I was very much in on Ozzie Albies in draft season, and that certainly hasn’t worked out as well as I’d hoped. To the naked eye, he’s been downright bad for much of the season. But even with his disappointing play, he has a surface stat line that isn’t killing you if you drafted him. He’s put together 16 HR, 69 R & RBI, and 14 SB. His AVG for much of the season has been terrible, but with his semi-resurgence late in the season, he has that up to a less-damaging .239. Chances are, you either dropped him or benched him at some point this season, but if you stuck with him in a Roto format, you’re not exactly happy with his year, but not destroyed by it either.
As I tried to remove the rose-colored glasses that I’ve apparently been wearing with Albies prior to this season, I took a close look at some interesting patterns in his yearly numbers. And those numbers make me think this year’s Albies is probably the one we can expect going forward.
While I don’t dispute that last year’s wrist injury is likely a reason for his dip in performance, I certainly don’t think it’s the only reason. Check out this extended sample:
| Year | PA | HH% | EV |
| 2017 | 244 | 27.7 | 87.3 |
| 2018 | 684 | 29.4 | 86.8 |
| 2019 | 702 | 34 | 88.9 |
| 2020 | 124 | 28.4 | 86.7 |
| 2021 | 686 | 37.2 | 89.6 |
| 2022 | 269 | 26.5 | 87.1 |
| 2023 | 660 | 38.9 | 88.7 |
| 2024 | 435 | 32 | 88.4 |
| 2025 | 636 | 30.7 | 87.6 |
The above numbers make it look, in retrospect, that I committed the cardinal sin of falling for Albies’s surface stat production over the years, even though his underlying numbers have told me not to. In fact, the numbers suggest, to my eyes at least, this year’s Albies is probably pretty close to what his underlying stats actually support. Perhaps this year’s downturn is all bad luck, but I’m more inclined to think the exact opposite: Maybe his strong numbers and resulting expensive draft prices over the years are related to a whole lot of good luck along with hitting near the top of what, once upon a time, was a strong offensive lineup.
Maybe I should be regularly projecting season stats more similar to this year’s than the 25 HR / 20 SB that I’ve been projecting for him the last couple of seasons. If I’m going to take a chance on him in coming drafts, I need his price to go down significantly from last year’s. So, if he falls to the ADP 150+ area, I’ll be in. After all, he does seem to be a reasonably consistent 20 HR / 12 SB guy who will get a ton of PAs (and the counting stats that come with PAs). The problem is I don’t think Albies will drop that far this year, so I’m likely out.
Anthony Volpe
The Anthony Volpe love over the last few years has been hard for me to comprehend. Where many smart fantasy players have viewed him through the lens of some upside quotient that is apparently above my cognitive abilities, I have considered him to be an AVG albatross who, yes, will provide some nice HR and SB numbers. But at what cost to my team?
It’s been fascinating to listen to the Volpe narratives over the last month or so. In mid-August, I heard again and again about how “awful” he’s been this year. But as soon as we learned of Volpe’s labrum tear, there seemed to be a collective sigh of relief – “Ah, OK, there’s a reason he’s been so bad.”
I acknowledge the real possibility that the injury has played a role as quite a few of his numbers started really tanking some time in May. At that time, his AVG went from mildly hurting anyone who rostered him to destroying his managers’ category altogether. His HH% dipped (at least initially – his HH% has bounced back post ASB). And his wOBA declined significantly. The narrative of the May shoulder injury certainly has some statistical support.
But I’m far from convinced the shoulder is the main issue. I kind of think this year’s Volpe is exactly who he’s been throughout his time with the Yankees. Take a look at this wide range of numbers:
| Year | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG% | wOBA | xBA | BABIP |
| 2023 | 21 | 24 | .209 | .283 | .383 | .290 | .233 | .259 |
| 2024 | 12 | 28 | .243 | .293 | .364 | .287 | .238 | .303 |
| 2025 | 19 | 16 | .206 | .268 | .393 | .285 | .234 | .241 |
AND
| Year | Con% | Z-Con% | CSW% | LD% | GB% | FB% | LA | EV | HH% |
| 2023 | 73.4 | 82.6 | 29.6 | 21.8 | 41.1 | 37.1 | 14.2° | 88.7 | 43 |
| 2024 | 79.2 | 85.9 | 28.5 | 21.1 | 50.2 | 28.7 | 8.4° | 87.7 | 35.3 |
| 2025 | 77.5 | 82.5 | 29.1 | 14.7 | 42 | 43.3 | 11.6° | 89.2 | 42 |
I look at the numbers above and see a 2025 season that seems completely in line with what his 2023 and 2024 seasons told us he is. Could we have expected some growth this year? Maybe. (Now is the time when someone somewhere is saying, “Prospect growth isn’t linear.”) I can understand why good fantasy players and analysts thought Volpe would continue to develop this year. But a couple of stats really get my attention: He has his highest SLG% this year, his EV is slightly higher than his previous high, and his HH% is almost identical to what he did in 2023. For someone whose shoulder is bothering him, the fact that he’s hitting the ball just as hard as he was before seems odd to me. His wOBA and xBA are almost identical to his previous seasons, suggesting he’s essentially performing at the same levels each season. The dip in this year’s surface stats may simply be related to bad BABIP luck. What above is different to the point of suggesting he underperformed this year due to injury? I don’t really see it.
What I do see, in addition to his bad BABIP luck, is evidence of a player who started pressing. Take a look at his LA: this year’s number is a significant increase from last year, and his FB% is an even larger jump. His LD% is down nearly 6.5% (a drop of essentially 1/3 of his previous seasons’ numbers). I suspect the FB% and LA increases exacerbated his BABIP problems, so he continued to press. This year mostly looks like standard inconsistency for an inconsistent player.
There’s actually plenty to like about Volpe, but I have no interest in drafting him this coming season unless he’s priced at RD 16+. But I feel sure he’ll be drafted in the top 150 again – and I’ll be out.
Sorry to be such a downer for my last article of the season. Good luck to both your fantasy teams and the real teams you cheer for as you try to close out the season strong. I hope to see you after the winter. Until then. – ADHamley
