Last week I implored you to consider your options in selling Steven Souza, a player who seemed to be at his peak at that time. Yes, I told you to consider moving a player that has been stellar so far. The thing is, what a player’s done doesn’t really move me. All I care about is what a player is going to do. That means past stats are only important insofar as they predict future stats. So when I see that a player has hit 15 home runs so far, or stolen 12 bases so far, all I really care about is to what degree is that level of production sustainable. I came to the “sell” conclusion for Steven Souza by using peripheral statstics, primarily his HR/FB% (unsustainable) and K% (too high and likely to not go down much). Going back to a May 4th post, I mentioned offhand that Jake Marisnick was a sell high. His AVG/SLG at the time it was published: .382/.632. His AVG/SLG since that time: .172/.242. That’s not to say I’m a soothsayer. Or to say that’s precisely how regression to the mean works. So why did that happen? Because baseball. But I do think it’s an example of why we, excepting those times when peripheral stats suggest otherwise, should trust the projections and use the peripheral stats they are based on.
With that in mind let’s take a look at some of the “hottest” base stealers over the last 15 days that are also somewhat available and figure out whether the production is sustainable. Here’s the list: Aaron Hicks (4 SB, 11% owned in RCLs), Cameron Maybin (3, 82%) , Joey Butler (3, 65%), Ender Inciarte (3, 98%). I recommended Maybin two weeks ago and Inciarte I’ve mentioned on several occasions, plus it turns out that he’s owned almost everywhere now, good to see that. That leaves Hicks and Butler for the current discussion.
Aaron Hicks of the Minneosta Twins has some speed but not elite speed. Including MiLB, his best season came in 2012 when he hit 13 home runs, stole 32 bases and hit .285 in 129 games on the AA level. For his MLB career he’s a .208 hitter with 10 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 624 plate appearances, which would be serviceable if he could just get the average up to about .240. Well, it so happens that Steamer’s ROS (rest of season) projection tells me he will bat .238. I think we can also expect 12-15 more stolen bases given regular playing time for the the rest of the season. I think that means that in most Razzball Commenter Leagues there is a better or at least comparable option sitting in Free Agency / Waivers. He’s worth pursuing in leagues deeper than 12 team mixed.
Joey Butler of the Rays has been picked up a lot because he’s been hitting a lot. His best MiLB season came in 2011 when he hit 14 home runs and stole 15 bases across AA and AAA for the Rangers organization. This is the first year he’s had a significant number of games started for an MLB team. By the looks of those MiLB stats he’s really not a speedster at all but it’s worth considering if he can provide decent overall value plus a little bit of speed. Steamer projects him for a .245 AVG going forward. Seems about right to me because he strikes out way too much (29.5%) and has been reliant on a .446 BABIP to bat .330 so far. He reminds me of my favorite BABIP dependent player of 2014 Danny Santana but he trades some of that speed for power. I actually think Butler can be solid going forward, maybe he’s got 12 more home runs and 8 more stolen bases in him for the rest of the season. Still, I think you can do better in 12 team mixed. If you think I’m wrong, remember: .446 BABIP = unsustainable.
And now I see that Danny Santana was sent down to AAA, about a week after I said that “It’s much more likely he’ll be sent to AAA than he will regain his leadoff spot” and after first warning you about him here on April 27th. So… I take back what I said earlier. I am a soothsayer. The numbers speak to me and they can also speak to you. Forecasting… that’s what fantasy advice is all about.
SAGNOF Stolen Base recommendations for this week: Aaron Hicks and Joey Butler are ownable in leagues deeper than 12 team mixed. For those leagues in which Carlos Correa is available, I recommend you try to make room for him even in 9-10 team leagues. 40% of your starting FAAB budget sounds about right. Rajai Davis and Kevin Pillar are two of my favorites of those not 100% owned in 12-team RCL type leagues.
I think I’ve given some pretty good advice in the past for future saves but I whiffed badly on Keven Jepsen, like Steven Souza on a pitch outside the strike zone (Souza’s O-Contact% is 46.0% and second worst in MLB). He and not Jake McGee is the temporary closer for Brad Boxberger, which is not surprising because I’m fairly sure that’s consistent with how they were used in game with leads. Still, I would have thought the player with previous closing experience would be the next in line. I think now they might both be ownable, obviously Jepsen while he continues to get Saves and thereafter, and even McGee, because he’s just that good. Boxberger, by the way, is expected to be back by Tuesday.
Pedro Strop has usurped (what is this anyway, a Game of (9th inning mound) Thrones?) the Cubs closing job from a struggling Hector Rondon and I think he can maintain that role for the rest of the season. When I last posted next in line rankings on May 4th he was 11th on the list to own although 6 of the players ahead of him were either temporary closers or 100% owned next in line players. The others ahead of him were A.J. Ramos (currently closing), Jordan Walden (obviously Strop moved past him a while ago due to his injury), Joe Smith and Sergio Romo. So the reason for mentioning this is because my rankings have (more or less) worked in the past. With that here’s an updated list of some the best next in line player’s to own, that are less than 90% owned.
- Tony Watson (77%)
- Ken Giles (82%)
- Kevin Jepsen (80%)
- Sergio Romo (55%)
- Joe Smith (31%)
- Darren O’Day (45%)
- Mark Lowe (6%)
Oh, and Carson Smith looks like he might be the new Mariners closer… at the very least he is The player to own in that bullpen. Mark Lowe is my other recommendation to own in that bullpen (other than maybe holding on to Rodney?) as it could in theory be a committee and he could be involved. But I don’t see why they don’t just keep handing the ball to Smith in the 9th.
