Happiest of new years, virtual friends! Hope the winter has been treating you well and that you are as excited as I am to count those days until spring while we ponder 2024’s draft landscape. I’ve already drafted a few NFBC-style draft and hold teams (15-team leagues, 50 man rosters, no free agents or trading, with weekly roster moves for pitchers and bi-weekly for hitters)… I jumped in even earlier and more often than usual this year. Why? Both because drafting is one of my favorite forms of entertainment, and also to see if I could get a jump on acquiring shares of players whose value I think may rise significantly, even before draft season is fully underway.
I really like the D&H format because it’s a great early gauge of player values before there is a ton of ADP to peruse or expert analysis and predictions to consume. Since they are redraft leagues, they can be very informative for learning about players, especially minor leaguers, who may not have been high on your radar but who others think could make a fantasy impact at some point in 2024. There’s a lot of different intel to be gained to take to future drafts, and the great part is that it can be helpful in all kinds of leagues, from the shallowest mixed league redraft format, to the deepest AL or NL-only keeper league.
When I started drafting in October, literally before the playoffs had begun (did I mention I started drafting early this year?), I kept an old-fashioned spiral notebook and an even more old-fashioned pencil next to my computer. I jotted down thoughts that I knew I might want to peruse more and/or share with you all. In the coming weeks, we’ll look at trends and ADP by position, but to kick off the preseason this week I thought we’d go with more of an overview. So, here are some of my early thoughts, some very general, as we prepare for the beautiful time of year we call draft season.
Before we get any further, here comes my annual disclaimer about ADP. I think we all know by now not to take it as gospel, but I still find it difficult not to let it creep into my head more than it should. The goal is to learn how the fantasy community is valuing players, not how we should necessarily value them (though sometimes it can help on that front too). If we’re deciding between two or more players, ideally it could help us decide when to pounce on and when to wait. That being said, there’s nothing wrong with a deeper dive on a player whose ADP seems suspiciously high to you, to see if he warrants more of your attention. Another thing to keep in mind, though, is just how much variance there can be in opinions on each player, often leading to useless ADPs. A couple recent NFBC deep-league examples: Dylan Carlson has been drafted as high as #284 and as low as #696; Brandon Belt has gone off the board at #301 and as late as #707.
Moving on, let’s get right to what some would label positional scarcity, which my friend Grey Albright will tell you simply does not exist. I’m not a huge believer either, but I do think it’s very important to look over every position before you start a draft. Having an idea of your preferred early, mid-round, and late options at every position is crucial to successfully navigating either a draft or an auction so that you can zig and zag and avoid overpaying for “the last good option” at a position. I like to go with what I consider the best player available early in a draft without worrying about position, and then focus more on roster construction as the draft continues. Take what the draft gives you, but not to the point of walking out with an unbalanced roster (of course this is especially true in a league without waivers).
Speaking of taking the best available player (as you perceive him to be) early on, I do think it’s worth considering doubling up on a position if it makes sense for your draft. From pick 15 in a draft and hold, I took Matt Olson and Bryce Harper 15/16 in one league – certainly not something I’d planned, but it made sense at the time. I’ve already seen several drafters double up early, and I’m not even counting OF/OF or SP/SP: Alonso/Vlad at 2.15/3.1, Ramirez/Riley at 2.14/3.2, Semien/Altuve at 2.8/3.8, and Seager/Abrams at 2.5/3.11. It may not be your cup of tea, but depending on league format I think it’s worth keeping in the back of your mind as you wait to see how the early rounds of a draft play out based on your personal player values.
Some initial starting pitching thoughts before we dive into it more as the offseason progresses: Grey has already mentioned starting pitching flying off the boards early this year, and I’ll chime in to say the SP demand is very real. There are guys in various SP tiers that I’d targeted but still haven’t drafted because they’ve flown off the board faster and more furiously than I expected. I’m either not willing to pay the price, and/or it was just never the right price at the right time on the right roster in the right draft. Examples: Pablo Lopez, Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, Tanner Bibee, and Michael King. And don’t get me started on how high Yamamoto is going. Don’t get focused on one guy, have backup plans, and tier your pitchers according to your preference. Know who you are willing to reach for, versus when to wait (like when you realize you missed out on a legit #3 according to your list, and therefore may just have to wait a couple rounds and hope one of your potential #4’s comes through for you. Again, don’t let ADP dictate your draft, but do carefully survey the starting pitching landscape before jumping into a draft this year, including where starters are being drafted in relation to each other and in relation to hitters. (I concentrate on just the last month or even a few weeks of recent ADP so recent value changes are reflected, e.g. the rise of both the aforementioned King and Yamamoto since their trade/signings). I like to know where I do and don’t agree with the current consensus, and which players I like, but am unlikely to get anywhere near where I’d draft them.
Also, a word about closers before we look at the position more carefully. I think I touched on this last year, and I’ll say it again: when it comes to early NFBC ADP, closer values are (IMO) ridiculously high. I suspect this is in part because most drafts reflected are draft and hold or “Gladiator” style leagues. Obviously one needs to approach a roster in a league with no waivers, trades – and in the case of the Gladiators, no bench at all – differently than your standard mixed leagues with FAAB and trading. So, I think one effect of these formats is that closer values skyrocket… but then does that rising tide lift all the other league format boats? After several non-FAAB leagues, I’m currently in the middle of my first slow draft for a league with weekly waivers. To my (sort of) surprise, closers are being taken just as early as they were in my draft and hold leagues. I’d guess it’s at least partially due to their high NFBC ADP, which many of us are likely using as a reference even in a non-NFBC league, and that’s intensified by the fact that there was less closer turnover last year than there has been in a while. I’m not one to grab a closer in the first few rounds of a draft ever, let alone in a FAAB league, but I had to pounce on one a bit sooner than I wanted to. It goes back to adjusting to each individual draft — I’m not going to change my whole strategy and take Hader over a great outfielder, but I’m also not going to miss out on a closer entirely just because I’m being stubborn to prove a point about how unamused I am by their cost in the current market.
We’ll close with a basic yet pronounced change I’ve made to my early drafts this year. I’m simply chasing upside a bit more and passing more often on players with a low but stable floor, which can be weirdly scary to do in a draft and hold league. It may be dumb to draft so early, particularly in a tournament format like some of my NFBC leagues feature, where those drafting in late March will be on a vastly different playing field, one with decidedly more information about free agent landing spots, injuries, and positional battles. I just have to hope I get lucky in avoiding the negative value changes I can’t control while I target players who I think have the greatest chance to gain value in the next couple of months. I may get burned and by midsummer be wishing I had a few more IKF/Wilmer Flores types on my rosters, or a boring but stable 7th inning reliever when and where I need one to fill in. But for now I’m more interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, or Orion Kerkering. They might spend 2024 in the minors and/or busting in the majors, but they also have a much better chance of gaining value in a hurry as February and March play out and the season finally gets underway. Until then, happy drafting and dreaming of spring!
