RCL Update: Round 1… FIGHT

It’s been a long tradition here at Razzball, passed on from generation to generation by word of…keyboard; don’t draft a starter in the first round.  There always seems to be those faces in the crowd that will argue until they are blue in the face that Kershaw is worth a top 2 pick.  All leagues are different, of course.  There are leagues, such as NFBC leagues or other leagues with limited moves where quality innings are hard to come by that top pitchers make more sense.  However, we tend to focus on the ESPN 12 team leagues we know and love, the RCLs.  In this format, you’re doing yourself a disservice drafting a first round pitcher.  I’ve said it, “I’m not here to suggest that if you draft a pitcher in the first round, you’ll lose the league, but you’re not doing yourself any favors.”  Grey has said it, “These tiers are from Kershaw to Lester.  If you draft someone from these tiers, you’ll probably lose your league or get lucky with your hitters.”  Countless other top RCLers have echoed the same sentiment.  Yet, there is Clayton Kershaw with an ADP of 10.5 and a high pick of #2 overall.  Just last week in an RCL I put together there was a spirited discussion as a drafter took Kershaw 4th overall.  The debate raged on as this drafter went on to take Max Scherzer in the 2nd round, 21st overall.  There were talks of “1/6th of my GS will now have elite ratios” and “Elite starters are so valuable with all this offense around the league”.  I’m not typically one to throw out anecdotal claims, so let’s look at some cold, hard numbers to see if the old spiel holds true.

I’d like to thank Simply Fred for getting me started down this road of data mining the other day in the comments.  Fred went through looking for top RCL teams that had drafted Kershaw in the first round and found very little in the way of success.  Since I have squirreled away plenty of RCL data the past couple seasons, I offered to take a more thorough look at the numbers.  Here are the results.

I ran the numbers for each of the 12 most drafted first rounders last year (there were a total of 23 different players taken in the 1st round, but these were the consensus 12) and here are their corresponding owner’s average finish position. Also of note, each player had an owner that both won and lost their league.

Josh Donaldson – 5.75
Nolan Arenado – 5.75
Kris Bryant – 5.8
Mike Trout – 5.97
Anthony Rizzo – 5.97
Paul Goldschmidt – 6.04
Manny Machado – 6.09
Bryce Harper – 6.22
Giancarlo Stanton – 6.54
Clayton Kershaw – 6.61
Jose Altuve – 6.72
Carlos Correa – 6.76

There were some issues with the data. For example, my data can’t account for team name changes. So not all 85 leagues are accounted for in each data set. All I have is draft data and final standings data. If a team changed their name in between that time frame, they aren’t included. That could sway some of the numbers, but probably not very much.

Is this a 100% slam dunk case for not drafting Kershaw in the first round?  Not entirely.  However, for those that like to exploit every possible edge, no matter how slight, I think the data is pretty clear.

Also of note, I found the number of league winners each of the 12 most drafted players produced:

Mike Trout – 11
Kris Bryant – 10
Manny Machado – 10
Josh Donaldson – 9
Paul Goldschmidt – 9
Jose Altuve – 9
Nolan Arenado – 8
Giancarlo Stanton – 8
Bryce Harper – 7
Clayton Kershaw – 7
Anthony Rizzo – 5
Carlos Correa – 5

Again, not overwhelming data, but something to look at nonetheless.

My takeaway is your best bet outside of Mike Trout is to draft a power hitting corner man in the first round.  It is also very important to not whiff on your first round pick.  Drafting an underperformer there (Harper, Stanton) will really torpedo your odds.  There is something to be said for drafting floors in the first round and looking at ceilings in the middle rounds.  Now, where have I heard that before (Rudy, Big Magoo, Cram It, etc.)

Defend yourselves Kershaw drafters!  Let’s get this discussion brewing!  What does the data say to you?

For esses and gees, here is how the first round picks have broken down so far this year:

Mike Trout has gone #1 in every, single league thus far.  The 2nd pick though has been a toss-up between Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve and everyone else.  The biggest consensus pick otherwise is Manny Machado at pick 8, where he’s been drafted 12 times.  He’s the third third baseman off the board typically after Arenado and Bryant.

DRAFT TRENDS

Speaking of draft data, let’s look at a little more.  We’ve looked at the young, the old, and the speedy the last three weeks.  This week, let’s turn our eyes to the other side of the SAGNOF coin, relief pitchers.  This way you’ll be able to pinpoint just where to take your favorite closer.  The data is getting deeper now, we’re up to 31 leagues worth of data.  I’m also tossing in a chart with change in ADP data.  This will show risers and fallers in ADP from the beginning of the draft season compared to this past week.  You’ll notice some sheets in the ADP spread sheet that note ADP by time frame.  Now you can grab the most recent week’s worth of ADP data so you can stay current on the latest trends.  Hope you enjoy.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our 31 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.

You can pretty clearly see where the closer runs happen in the RCLs.  Picks 85-110 are closer-central.  However, if you wait until after the fray you still have a chance to snag Familia.  What happens if he doesn’t get suspended?  Or if his suspension is minimal?  Drafters will be rewarded for the risky pick if either of those scenarios play out.  I could see drafting a Chapman early, a Familia later and snagging Cam Bedrosian late in an RCL and calling it good for closers.

Who’s your favorite target out of this group?  I’m on board with Smokey and the Edwin Diaz bandwagon, love that kid.  Perhaps to my own detriment, I’m likely not owning any Ken Giles shares this year, not until he proves it.

As always, here is the link to the RCL ADP sheet for your own perusal: RCL ADP SHEET

RECENT TRENDS

Here we have a little chart showing some of the changes in ADP from early in the season to this past week.  The bigger the DIFF number the higher the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.

The top of this list is a SAGNOF royale with cheese.  Holland and Bedrosian appear to be the front-runners for their team’s closer positions, at least to start.  

Koda Glover is getting some more love, or Smokey is just drafting more teams, one or the other.  

Dyson and Jankowski are giving teams some speed towards the end of drafts.

Why has Domingo Santana’s ADP jumped 2 rounds?  Three spring training HRs perhaps?  Or maybe some people are starting the PAGNOF movement (Power Ain’t Got No Face).

The bottom of the list, meanwhile, is a fantasy graveyard.  RIP Ian Desmond and David Dahl.  Oh yea, you too Price, Kipnis and DeSclafani.

Apparently people are just catching on now that Sonny Gray and Felix Hernandez are not that good.  Better late than never.

Blake Snell’s dropping ADP is surprising.  I’m not one to draft a starter like Snell in an RCL, but there are plenty who are.  Is his 4.82 spring ERA and 7:6 K:BB ratio scaring folks off?

Now, go join a league and contribute to that wonderful ADP data:

TO JOIN A LEAGUE

Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) and enter the PASSWORD at ESPN. Emails are there for some leagues, but you shouldn’t need to email anyone.  You can join as many leagues as you like.

TO START A LEAGUE

Please create a league in ESPN based on the league rules reference above. Step by step: Hit Create. Then Create ESPN Custom (middle option), Name League, Change to 12 Teams, Restriction Type: None, Open to All Users, Access: change to Private, create Password, leave as Roto and Snake, Make Draft Date and Time, Create. From Default settings all you have to do is change to TWO DL SLOTS and 180 Starts by pitchers. So, you go to ROSTERS and Click “Edit Roster Settings.” There, change to 2 DL Slots and 180 Starts (the counter will change to 20.0 per slot). Then SUBMIT Roster Settings. Finally, Create Your League! (Important Note: Make sure league is viewable to public but requiring a password to avoid non-Razzballers joining.) When that’s finished, click here. You will be permissioned shortly so you can add your league info to the Google Doc (the below grid cannot be edited from this page). On that Google Doc, you will need to enter your name, league link, password and please UPDATE the number of openings as your league fills up. That’s it. Oh, and don’t use your bank account password. (Here’s a video Jay made to help some noobs.  Is noobs spelled with zeroes or oh’s?  Hmm, that might make me a noob at spelling noob.)  You can start as many leagues as you like.  If you start less than ten leagues, again someone could mock you.

Want to be my Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss