Between the trade of Mark Trumbo and the recent injury to Ender Inciarte, there was speculation that Peter O’Brien would get a call to the majors. The Diamondbacks didn’t cooperate – opting instead to promote Danny Dorn. That makes sense considering Dorn is on the 40-man roster and O’Brien is not. O’Brien, who started the year at catcher and still has eligibility there in most fantasy leagues, recently switched to the outfield and is having a great season with the bat in Triple-A. So it’s no surprise that D-Backs fans and fantasy players were hoping to see him promoted to the bigs when the news broke that Inciarte would be out for at least a couple of weeks. But, well, it didn’t happen. So the question now becomes when will we see O’Brien in the majors and will he be worth our time once he arrives? Let’s take a look in this week’s profile…
| 2015 Prospect List | Ranking |
|---|---|
| Razzball | #9 |
| Baseball America | #8 |
| Baseball Prospectus | NR |
| Fangraphs | #12 |
Minor League Statistics
| Year | Age | Level | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB% | K% | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 21 | Rk/A(ss) | 227 | 29 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 4.4% | 27.3% | 0 | 1 | .212 | .256 | .401 |
| 2013 | 22 | A/A+ | 506 | 78 | 130 | 39 | 4 | 22 | 96 | 8.1% | 26.5% | 0 | 1 | .291 | .350 | .544 |
| 2014 | 23 | A+/AA | 427 | 67 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 34 | 74 | 4.9% | 26% | 0 | 0 | .271 | .316 | .594 |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | 255 | 39 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 4.7% | 22% | 1 | 1 | .312 | .353 | .573 |
One look at the various rankings above and it should tell you that we’re not dealing with an elite prospect, but with a 34-homer season on his resume and an ETA sometime in late 2015, it’s worth looking into his fantasy value going forward. Some of the low ranking is in part due to his lack of a true position, or at least question marks about where he’ll end up on the diamond. The Yankees drafted O’Brien 94th overall back in 2012 and started him out as a catcher/designated hitter. He saw time at both first and third base and even a handful of games in the outfield with New York before being shipped off to Arizona in the Martin Prado trade.
The Diamondbacks continued to work with him at catcher this spring despite questions on defense – even developing a case of the yips. Flash forward to this June when O’Brien basically said he doesn’t want to be behind the plate anymore. He’s since started every game this month in the outfield. The uncertainty around his position could be one of the reasons he was never placed on the 40-man roster to begin with despite a solid performance in the Arizona Fall League. The good news from a fantasy persective is that playing outfield will get him to the majors faster than catching will. Where does O’Brien end up? Well if it’s not the outfield, he’d probably make a great DH somewhere, although turning around and flipping O’Brien to an American League team may not be the route the Diamondbacks want to take.
But enough about defense, let’s get to the bat. 34 home runs in 2014 is nothing to sneeze at, especially when you consider Chase Field is the type of park that favors right-handed power. It’s safe to say O’Brien isn’t going to draw many walks, and his strikeout rates are concerning. Although he has lowered his K-rate about 4% this year, most evaluators put a 45 (below average) on his hit tool. O’Brien is a big guy, so it’s not a surprise that he’s got some strikeout issues. The problem is that when you take a player with plus raw power and combine it with a below-average hit tool, you tend to end up with a player who just can’t get to all of that power in games. 30 homers starts to look more like 20…etc, etc.
In O’Brien’s defense, he has improved that K-rate each year, his average is up over .300, his OBP is higher than it’s ever been, and he’s right behind Jon Singleton for the league lead in home runs and runs batted in (PCL). Outside of his contact rate dipping to 73%, O’Brien’s numbers look good. Scouts questioned his teammate Yasmany Tomas based on his hit tool, and Tomas has posted a 117 wRC+ in 47 games this season. So either O’Brien’s season is a mirage and he’s going to get exploited, or he’s going to be a really nice outfielder who puts up 25+ homer seasons in the majors. I’m guessing reality will fall somewhere in between, but time will tell. Hopefully deciding on a position will help his offensive development.
What’s the Move?
This gets tricky. He’ll likely lose his catcher eligibity after this season, so dynasty leaguers probably need to look at him as an outfielder going forward. I’m buying, but I’ll say I’m also not willing to pay a lot. The 45 grade on his bat gives me the most pause. In NL-only redraft leagues he’s worth a stash thanks to his proximity, power potential, and catcher eligibility, but he’s more of a reserve play than somebody you want burning a hole on your active roster. In shallow redrafts, I’d probably wait until there’s a clearer path to playing time. Perhaps another trade or injury does the trick, but with Peralta, Dorn, and Brito already on the 40-man, we could be growing old together waiting for O’Brien to surface. He’s worth monitoring, and if he continues to rake it could force Arizona’s hand at some point in the second half.
