A player doesn’t strike out or not because of where he’s at in the batting order. I start here because I’ve read some thoughts suggesting Jarred Kelenic will be instantly better at making contact simply because he’ll bat lower in the lineup. I’m not saying that’s an impossible outcome; I just think there’s a correlation versus causation conversation there. Even if he does play better in Atlanta, I’m more likely to chalk that up to coaching and reps than I am a number next to his name. Another thing that will make a positive difference is the home ballpark. Lefties face an uphill (up-current?) battle in Seattle, while Truist plays closer to neutral with a little lean toward pitcher-friendliness.
Let’s get a quick look at the particulars.
Seattle gets RHP Cole Phillips, RHP Jackson Kowar, P Budget Relief
Atlanta gets OF Jarred Kelenic, LHP Marco Gonzales, 1B Evan White
Kelenic will be just 24 entering his fourth major league season. In 974 at bats, he has slashed .204/.283/.373 with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate.
I think it’s fair to throw some of that out. He slashed .253/.327/.419 with a 108 wRC+ in 105 games last year, for instance.
Trouble is, most of that happened early. From April 26 onward, he slashed .231/.310/.344 with a 33.4 percent strikeout and an 84 wRC+ in 84 games.
Coincidentally, April 26th is when The Athletic published an article titled “‘This is it’: How Jarred Kelenic adjusted body and mind to live up the hype” by Ken Rosenthal.
What happened to capital letters, by the way? Get IN there and reclaim some GROUND!
Flash forward about three months from Rosenthal’s article, and we see Kelenic breaking his foot on a water cooler he had kicked in return for being struck out by the other team’s pitcher. The temper tantrum cost him almost two months on the field.
These types of guys always worry me. Baseball is not football. You aren’t likely to get better outcomes by getting mad or gripping the bat harder. Whatever kind of violent energy you can channel in a lot of other sports to play better just works against you in baseball, where it’s best to have a slow heartbeat. Kelenic seems to understand this in the logical part of his mind, but it’s hard to change the way we’re wired. It’s also incredibly frustrating to bump up against the walls of your own physical abilities. It’s possible he just flat out doesn’t have quick enough hands to be the kind of hitter he’d like to be.
People assuming the Mariners are out of their minds to make this move might be underestimating their efforts to help the player. Maybe they think it’s a lost cause after doing everything they could think of. Maybe they’re just tired of trying. Anyone who’s ever been in any kind of relationship can relate to that on some level. Maybe they see this as a sell-high moment due to the respectable season-long line hiding months of misery.
Whatever their rationale, which I suspect has a fair bit to do with year-end budgeting, I’m pleased to see an interesting transaction during a dry spell, especially one that involves and impacts more than just Kelenic.
The big winners for our purposes might be Ryan Bliss, Dominic Canzone, Cade Marlowe and Taylor Trammell. Seattle has openings in both corner outfield spots and another one at designated hitter. They’ll almost certainly bring in some veterans, but the market isn’t flush with no-doubt lineup regulars. Josh Rojas could kick out to a corner and create an opening for Bliss, the most interesting fantasy player among this group. You could mention Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty here too because this deal improves every fringe Mariner’s chance to get a look at some point.
RHP Jackson Kowar brings an interesting angle to the deal. Seattle has run a similar strategy with several discarded pitchers over the years and generated value (Graveman, Sewald, Topa, Speier). Kowar’s been awful even at Triple-A the last couple seasons, posting ERA’s of 6.16 and 5.96 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. He’d been a starter in 2022, to be fair, but earned that 5.96 in 45.1 innings across 30 outings (one start) in 2023. His MLB ERA’s have been even worse: 11.27, 9.77, and 6.43 in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Could be a trend though. He drops another 2-3 points on his ERA this season, look out. And it wouldn’t be even close to the craziest thing that’s ever happened in Seattle.
RHP Cole Phillips could be interesting but hasn’t thrown an inning since he was drafted out of high school in 2022 (57th overall).
I suspect Atlanta will move Evan White to the outfield, where his plus athleticism gives him a chance to create more value than he ever could as a great defensive first baseman. If he can play centerfield, he buys a second life to his career. His bat was always a stretch at first base but might be enough for a fourth outfielder. That’s assuming he can get healthy enough to string a few seasons together.
Atlanta says they’ve got a taker for LHP Marco Gonzales, so that’s just a matter of money management if they’re telling the truth. They’ll probably pay a portion of his 12 million dollar salary to move him along. My guess is it’ll be the Rockies who take the innings.
And that’s pretty much it for news from the winter meetings as the world waits for Shohei Ohtani to shape the next decade of baseball.
WAIT! LATE UPDATE: OF Alex Verdugo has been traded to the Yankees in return for Razzball spokesperson RHP Richard Fitts, RHP Greg Weissert and RHP Nicholas Judice. It’s being reported by some places as a prelude to a Juan Soto trade. Verdugo is a free agent next year, and even if he weren’t, I’m struggling to see what business he’d have as a functional piece in a Juan Soto trade. Perhaps it comes down to teams being proactive in the face of a sports media crisis following the dissolution of regional sports networks. Perhaps the Yankees are somewhat insulated from that thanks to Yes network. Perhaps it’s just painful to imagine a world where you have to acquire Alex Verdugo before you can really try for Juan Soto. Not that a Verdugo-Soto soiree would be the weirdest thing to ever happen in New York. The Kelenic trade might indicate that money’s expensive around the game right now, whatever that means. It’s late here. If your last name is Fitts and you’re having a boy, are you legally obligated to name him Richard? How is this happening?
Thanks for reading!
