This day should be great for baseball.
I’ve heard some groaning about the MLB amateur draft lining up with All-Star weekend, but I think it’s kind of cool. Might be the first decent marketing move I’ve seen baseball make since Bud Selig and company turned the other way for big Mac during the home run chase.
Might be wise to say here that I don’t care about the All-Star game, or the Hall of Fame for that matter, and I don’t know many who do, but it’s viable to point out I hold no candles for the bygone days of Pete Rose running over a catcher during an exhibition game, so it doesn’t matter to me if the All-Star spotlight is weaker than it once was. That bulb’s been dimming since interleague play and got even duller when Selig tried to make it count for the World Series, a choice so dumb it rivals any of Manfred machinations.
Anyway, if baseball can win some eyes and ears by talking about the draft when people are glancing that way for the Home Run Derby, that’s a win in my book. Same goes for the Futures Game, which creates a neat sort of synergy with the All-Star game and the draft. I suppose one could argue baseball should spread these events out to get the maximum media burn from them, and there’s certainly a case to be made about avoiding the NBA finals when scheduling big events, but that won’t happen every year, and baseball has to get its press while it can. The second football players start gathering in helmets, the national focus begins to shift, or in the case of most media outlets, continues to shift.
One upshot of the schedule is that I’m not doing a mock draft this year. I was a little late to the gate compared to other popular outlets that are already on version four of their mocks. Here I picture Jim Carrey as Lloyd Christmas saying “four mocks, huh?” in the tone of “Big Gulps, huh?”
If seeking some draft day prep, check out the Natural, Hobbs, in his Top 30 Prospects for the 2021 MLB Draft. Instead of a mock, I’ll be publishing an early ranking for First-Year-Player drafts after the chips have fallen. In this space, I’ll try to add value to your All-Star Weekend by creating a player-by-player primer for the Futures Game scheduled for 3 p.m. Eastern today.
American League Rosters
P Shane Baz, Tampa Bay (AAA)
Has joined the elite tier of pitching prospects due to improved command of his incredible stuff. Baz can still be had in most leagues, or at least in my leagues, but will be one of the players who gets a huge value boost this weekend as he’ll likely hit 100 a couple times and could easily strike out the side. I’m guessing his walk rate is not well known either, and the infographic showing him with 8 walks across 51.2 innings is going to stop some people in their tracks.
P Reid Detmers, LA Angels (AA)
I’ve written a lot about Reid here at Razzball and recently ranked him 31st in the Top 100 Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball Volume 2: La Vida Vidal. How Detmers could improve his value: he’s throwing really hard these days, and I don’t know who knows it. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him bump up against 97 in a short burst.
P Marcos Diplan, Baltimore (AAA)
I don’t know what’s going on here. Guy has a 1.44 WHIP in relief at AAA. I get the feeling the Baltimore braintrust doesn’t value the Futures Game and believes relievers are the safest bets to send because, well, that’s true. I’d be leery of letting my prize young starter gas it up on the big stage for one inning. I can’t help but wonder if the Orioles caught any flack from the game’s organizers when they sent this one in. Could torpedo the event if more teams treated it this way.
P Emerson Hancock, Seattle (High-A)
Throwing harder now than he did in college. I think he’ll get a little boost lighting up the gun on national television.
P Luis Medina, New York Yankees (AA)
Stuff is elite and loud. Perfect showcase guy. Control comes and goes. Big innings will probably always be an issue. Could be a true back-end bullpen guy for a long, long time if the Yankees ever go that route.
P Cole Ragans, Texas (High-A)
Having a feel-good year as a 2016 first rounder who hadn’t pitched since 2017 entering the season. 44.1 IP with 54 Ks and a 1.08 WHIP puts him back on the map.
P Josh Winder, Minnesota (AAA)
Recently promoted, just one step away, Winder will be on my next stash list in case Minnesota has a winning streak. Been nothing but great since being selected out of Virginia Military Academy in round 7 of the 2018 draft. Should be owned in just about any sized dynasty leagues.
P Cole Winn, Texas (AA)
The best pitching prospect nobody talks about, Winn stands to catch some helium on Sunday. (I know people are talking about him, but the syntax doesn’t really work that way, and the point of him being a little under the radar works best with the flourish.)
P Hector Yan, Los Angeles (High-A)
Big stuff who fits best in the bullpen due to spotty control born from a here-and-there delivery he struggles to repeat. Has a 6.02 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Cool guy to send, Angels.
C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore (AA)
Perhaps I was too hard on the Orioles in the Diplan blurb. I didn’t mean to be. I really do think it’s smart to send relievers. I guess there was no way to avoid sending Adley short of promoting him to the majors, and that’s not happening anytime soon. I think he’s a decent trade target for rebuilders if the pieces line up. A contender might sell him more easily than the talent dictates simply because he’s a catcher who’s not likely to help until next year.
C Tyler Soderstrom, Oakland (Low-A)
This game could function as a graduation ceremony for Soderstrom, who has nothing left to prove with the bat in Low A, slashing .311/.396/.560 with 9 home runs in 48 games.
C Bo Naylor, Cleveland (AA)
I got confused on this one. Thought he was out for the year, but that’s his brother Josh. I’m pretty meh on both. Bo is slashing .194/.277/.309, and while he’s young for the level at 21, I’m just not interested for fantasy. He’s probably owned in most dynasty leagues, and he probably shouldn’t be.
2B Vidal Brujan, Tampa Bay (AAA)
He’ll spend Sunday in the big leagues for real.
3B Jake Burger, Chicago (AAA)
Mmmm . . . big league beeeefffff. My wife made some tasty turkey burgers the other day, to my surprise. Gotta doctor up that ground turkey with some crackers and seasonings and such. Nice work, wife!
SS Jeter Downs, Boston (AAA)
Is rebounding from a slow start but still looking at a 2022 debut due to Boston’s depth. Probably a sell for dynasty contenders who have him.
3B Austin Martin, Toronto (AA)
Bit of a slapdick situation here. Martin could lose some value if enough people get a look at his approach.
1B Nick Pratto, Kansas City (AA)
The greatest trick the devil ever achieved was convincing fantasy baseballers Nick Pratto didn’t exist. He’s cooled off a bit since realizing he was stuck at AA no matter what he did, but I’m hoping this game serves as a graduation day for the whole set of Royals dominating their levels.
3B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit (AA)
I’m curious to see where he’ll line up on defense. He’s actually been viable enough at third that I think he’ll debut there even if he slides over in the long run. Third basemen shift to play everywhere in the big leagues. The six-game milb series structure of 2021 means he’s getting more practice at that than he normally would, but I think it’ll be an issue at some point. Manager AJ Hinch’s Astros made many bones on infield defense, then banged those bones against many garbage cans. A bone in the glove hand is worth two in the bush, as the old saying goes.
SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City (AA)
Headlining a short list of potential number one prospects in baseball. I bet he’ll go yard. Swinging a hot bat, looking to force the issue in an org that seems determined to wait until next year.
OF Yoelqui Cespedes, Chicago (High-A)
Sox hoping for a big game they could sell, I think. Cespedes is going to take a while to adjust, but he’s been okay so far after an extended break from baseball.
OF Jasson Dominguez, New York (Rookie)
Get your popcorn ready.
OF Riley Greene, Detroit (AA)
Much love in the chamber for Greene, and I get it: he’s young and good. I’m impressed he’s only been caught stealing once in eleven attempts. Might produce more than I thought on the bases due to baserunning acumen. Could be in AAA before he turns 21.
OF Jarred Kelenic, Seattle (AAA)
Another probable graduation day here. It’s a nice win for Kelenic that he’s hitting again and will spend the weekend paling around with some big names.
OF Pedro Leon, Houston (AA)
If Leon goes yard, whatever buy window exists for him today probably slams shut for a while.
OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle (AA)
Better make that popcorn a double.
National League Rosters
P Cade Cavalli, Washington (AA)
Could be a big winner on the main stage. Might hit 100 and strike out the side. If he splashes here, he’ll storm into the conversation for best pitching prospect in baseball. Probably part of that convo already in the hyper-focused circles.
P Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh (AA)
I suppose you could copy and paste portion of Cavalli’s blurb here, but Contreras has a few things working against him in the best-minor-league-pitcher arena: 1) He’s on the Pirates, so 2) he’s not coming up this year, and 3) he’s coming off his worst start of the season: 1 IP, 4 baserunners, 2 ER, 1 K. Like the Futures Game itself, that start happened in Colorado, so he gets a pass from me, but he might have some trouble at altitude again on Sunday afternoon. I like that he hasn’t pitched since that June 30 blow-up, but I’m also curious about the reason behind the pause. He will have faced six batters in the last 20 days by gametime.
P Andre Jackson, LA Dodgers (AA)
If I had to pick one guy to walk off the field with more chamber love than he came in with, it would be Jackson. He’s been pretty good as a 25-year-old in AA (24.1 K-BB%, 1.06 WHIP), and he’s behind on pitching reps, but he’ll be a grown man among much younger men on Sunday afternoon, and we could get a glimpse into his big league future as a back-end pensman. I’m not ruling him out as a starter long-term, but even then he’s more likely to be a Dodger tweener than a 180-inning mainstay in the rotation.
P Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis (AAA)
Another guy who’s most recent start was his worst (4.2 IP, 16 baserunners, 6 ER, 2 K, Liberatore has been fine as a 21-year-old in AAA despite a 5.07 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP on the surface. I think the Cardinals did him a disservice in having him skip A+ and AA. I’m still interested in him long term–like two years from now.
P Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati (AA)
Enjoying a superlative age-23 season: 32 IP, 3 ER, 46 Ks, 0.78 WHIP. I’m guessing he’s headed to AAA shortly after the game. He’s clearly nasty to the eye test, and as tough as he looks from the camera behind centerfield, he looks impossible from the batter’s box. Very exciting marriage of talent and organization here.
P Max Meyer, Miami (AA)
Speaking of fun organization + player combinations, Max Meyer is a great fit for Miami. His command has abandoned him at times this year, but he’s still rocking a 1.67 ERA and has been unscored upon in eight of his eleven outings this year. Likely to look pretty loud in the short burst.
P Quinn Priester, Pittsburgh (High-A)
The 20-year-old religio has settled in at the level after a challenging first month, posting a 2.05 ERA over his last five starts. That comes with just a 15.4 K-BB rate and a 1.23 WHIP. Even when he’s hot, he’s not yet the kind of pitcher we’re seeking in most fantasy leagues. Still a pretty clear sell for me if anyone’s buying at his pre-season hype rates.
P Manuel Rodriguez, Chicago (AAA)
He’s almost 25 and just got promoted after walking 16.9 percent of his opponents at AA. So why is he here? Well, he hasn’t given up a run since May 7, a span covering 15.1 innings across 15 outings and earning him five saves. Rodriguez is one of a few invitees who should be a free agent in just about every league, but I’m actually pretty intrigued to get a high-leverage look at a long-term bullpen piece for Chicago.
P Ethan Small, Milwaukee (AAA)
An oxymoron at 6’4” 215 lbs, Small seemed like a great draft pick at 25th overall in 2019, and he has rewarded the Brewers by cruising right through the minors. He’s thrown six shutout innings in each of his last two turns at AAA and features season-long rates of 0.16 HR/9 and a 1.77 ERA. Makes for a sharp pickup if you’ve got room in a redraft Only league.
C Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (High-A)
This guy is amazing. Even as he’s slumping a little, he’s drawing walks and slugging .523 against much older pitchers. He’ll be 20-years-old for all of 2022 and should be knocking on the door by this time next year. The James McCann contract is not going gentle in that good night, but this young man can catch and sing the sun in flight, so McCann better burn and rave while he can.
C Luis Campusano, San Diego (AAA)
I’m glad the Padres are sending Campusano, who’s done yeoman’s work for them as a fill-in catcher the past couple years despite being young and overmatched at the plate. It’s a nice reward for a guy who’s rebounded from a terrible start to 2021. Might be worth a moment to check in with his dynasty teams where you need help at catcher. He’s slashing .330/.394/.574 with a 7.9/17.3 BB/K rate since May 29th. Went .186/.290/.288 between May 6 and May 25 before taking a little breather to refocus his approach.
C Willie MacIver, Colorado (AA)
Promoted from High-A on June 30 and has three hits in seven games at AA, all three being home runs he hit in the same game. Gotta track everyone approaching Coors, especially a catcher with power and some speed, but I think we’ll be waiting awhile before we see MacIver, a 24-year-old with decent plate skills but a lot to prove in a creaky org that likes to make us wait.
SS CJ Abrams, San Diego (AA)
Out for the season. Will be replaced on the roster. Dynasty stock should hold steady until we see him again.
3B Brett Baty, New York Mets (High-A)
The power once hanging in a cave has started to sound off in games for Baty, who could both be in AA by this time next month, where he’d finally be well ahead of the age curve after being an old high schooler on draft night.
2B Michael Busch, LA Dodgers (AA)
If you’ve been here a while, you know I put Busch in a group of most overrated players in the prospect world. Among other things, he’s a bit old for his level/experience, he strikes out a lot, he doesn’t run, I don’t see how he’ll crack the Dodgers starting lineup, and they don’t sell prospects unless someone is shopping Mookie Betts. Hell I wouldn’t be surprised if Gavin Lux is back on the bench next season. Beware super hyped bats in Los Angeles.
2B Nolan Gorman, St. Louis (AAA)
Overmatched so far in AAA (.114/.162/.114), but it’s only been nine games, and he’s just 21. If he has a good showing, I’d be hitting the phones looking for a buyer, but then again I’ve always been a seller on Gorman.
SS Marco Luciano, San Francisco (Low-A)
Feels like another place for a popcorn comment. All the prospects who could take the top spot after Wander will get a lot of love this weekend–not that you could acquire them ahead of time in your leagues anyway.
SS Bryson Stott, Philadelphia (AA)
Talked about Stott a bit in this space as I’ve cautioned people about the recent helium. He’s fine, but you don’t win a rebuild by overpaying for medium-good prospects. You’re better off just keeping the medium-good players you’d have to sell to get him.
1B Michael Toglia, Colorado (High-A)
Not a lot to see here. Big power. Lotta swing and miss. Rockies gonna rocky anyway. Sell em if you got em.
OF Brennen Davis, Chicago (AA)
Looking good as a 21-year-old at AA (141 wRC+) despite a 30.2 percent K rate. Four home runs and three stolen bases in just 31 games there after burning through High A in one week with two of each. Riley Greene is getting all the love, but his strikeout rate (27.2%) and wRC+ (131) look a bit like Brennen’s. Depends on who you’re hearing from, but the vibe I get from the chamber is that one of these guys is struggling (Davis) while the other is a borderline top five prospect (Greene), and I cannot figure the rationale. Could just be me hearing it weird from the places I’m listening. Admittedly, I have less time for chamber talk than I once did.
OF Michael Harris II, Atlanta (High-A)
Speaking of the echo chamber, Michael Harris II gets more love in there than just about any .338 OBP, 117 wRC+ guy I can remember. Yeah, he’s just 20 years old, and sure, he’s stolen 14 bases in 15 attempts, but I feel like we’ve been down this road before with young Braves who swing at everything and feast at the lower levels. Harris does have a better baseline hit tool than Drew Waters or Cristian Pache, but it’s a little odd to me that nobody’s saying fool me don’t get get fooled again.
OF Heliot Ramos, San Francisco (AA)
Hey look, it’s another guy I think is overrated in a lot of dynasty circles. Don’t trade for Ramos thinking he’s coming up to help that outfield anytime soon. Zaidi and company are too good at finding value to worry about reserving space for the previous regime’s prospects.
OF Alek Thomas, Arizona (AA)
Hey look, it’s another guy I think is overrated in a lot of dynasty circles. I like Thomas better than a lot of these guys I don’t like, but he’s still in the bucket of guys I don’t like relative to perceived value.
OF Ryan Vilade, Colorado (AAA)
The Daywalker is slugging just .371 in the hitter’s haven at Albuquerque, and that’s not gonna strike fear in any creatures of the night. He skipped AA and is just 22 years old, but a 78 wRC+ is not the look of a future fantasy stud.
OF Drew Waters, Atlanta (AAA)
Hey look, it’s another guy I think is overrated in a lot of dynasty circles. Or used to be, anyway. Gotta be careful about the prospect people who don’t watch a lot of games. He’s still just 22, but you can’t strike out 31.2 percent of the time when repeating a level after a season of facing borderline big league pitchers at the alt side. Waters just plain swings too often. Atlanta apparently likes to wait on prioritizing plate discipline late in a players’ timeline, and while that has worked for some guys with truly elite bat-to-ball skills, it leaves others out to dry.
Thanks for reading!
Hope you enjoy the big weekend!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
