Points Leagues – What Did We Learn In Tokyo?

The first two games are officially in the books.  So, what did we learn in Tokyo?

I know it’s an extremely small sample size but work with me here people!

We learned:

• The two-game set averaged over 24 million viewers worldwide
• All six games (four exhibition and two MLB) were sellouts at 42,000+ fans each
• Shohei Ohtani picked right back up where he left off, launching baseballs and selling merch
• Max Muncy joins an exclusive club with a hit in five different countries
• Young Roki Sasaki is already a professional pitcher
• Kyle Tucker is going to be a fan favorite at Wrigley
• Matt Shaw looks like he’s going to stick at the hot corner
• Miguel Rojas’ defensive work made us temporarily forget Mookie’s absence
• Freddie Freeman’s fantasy owners will need patience this season
• Koji Uehara’s ceremonial first pitch got the attention of NYY and NYM brass
• The Dodgers can still win comfortably without two of their best players
• That 3-D replay system used at the stadium has officially changed the game

“These things are all well and good, but we’re trying to win a Points league championship. Hey TLB, what did we REALLY learn in Tokyo?”

Now we’re talking!

Let’s dig into the numbers and see if we can draw out any conclusions that will help us manage our Points league teams.

NOTE: I’ll be using the RazzSlam setup for this analysis.  If you forgot what that is, here is a reminder:

Ok, now to the hitters:

• Just three home runs over the two-game set, with Ohtani nabbing one of them – Of course!
• Tommy Edman and Enrique Hernandez launching one each provides an immediate boost to their fantasy ADPs. Surely, it is a welcomed surprise for their fantasy owners but is it an indicator of things to come?
  • Edman has never hit more than 13 HRs in a season. His career SLG of .409 and upper 80s average EV doesn’t generate a lot of hope for a 7^th year power breakout.  However, he did manage six long balls last season in 37 games due to a career-high 11.4^o LA, so there’s a glimmer of hope in his age 29 season.  More than likely though, it’ll be more of the same.
  • Similarly, Hernandez sports a career SLG of .405, and that’s after three seasons in a row between .338-.373. To his credit (I’m being optimistic here), he’s unremarkably consistent.  He’s maintained a good K% (<20%) and a 17^o LA, but other analytics, like BABIP, ISO, BB% and AVG, are again, unremarkably consistent.  He gets ABs on arguably the best lineup in the game, so he has some fantasy value, but don’t let his accomplishments on the big stage last week cloud your judgement.
• Catchers are always an enigma, especially in two-catcher formats. After the last few years of being one of the first catchers off the board in fantasy drafts, we’re seeing Will Smith being drafted as catcher #7 (March ADP = 94) these days.  The fact that he played in both Tokyo games is the best sign after being slowed by knee and ankle issues this Spring.  He’s always come through with a good eye at the plate.  Therefore, taking 5 BBs in those two games should provide some confidence that he can thrive in the middle of a strong batting order as long as he stays healthy.
• Jon Berti is fantasy relevant for one reason – SBs. With two in Tokyo, he’s now 40% to last year’s total…in only 10% of his 2024 ABs.  He likely gets the bulk of the 2B playing time while Nico Hoerner is out, so why not take a late round flyer?  At least you’ll wake up Thursday with points from three hits, a run, and a pair of bags.
• Lastly, don’t stress about slow starts. I’m talking to all you Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez owners.

And now the Pitchers:

• There was a lot of excitement surrounding the four SPs in this 2-game series but only one came away with a W.
  • Yamamoto owners get the highest reward due to his 5 IP and W. However, throwing a total of 72 pitches over those 5 innings, and only coming away with 4 Ks is not an ideal start.  Fear not though, he’ll go longer and become more efficient in the coming weeks.
  • Imanaga went only 4 innings but allowed 0 ERs. That allowed him to get to double digit fantasy points despite ending with subpar K/9 (4.50) and BB/9 (9.00).  Again, no worries here.  Those will right themselves quickly to his baseline of 1.45 and 6.21, respectively.
  • Sasaki’s start was the wild card of the bunch. The young hurler clearly battled some nerves and had trouble locating his pitches (45% K rate).  He was able to navigate around a bases-loaded situation with minimal damage so there’s plenty of positive to take from this outing.  Don’t look for Sasaki to go deep into games for awhile so owners may need to be patient.
  • Steele was the most established SP of the group and had the toughest debut. The Dodgers came out swinging in Game 2 and tagged Steele for 5 ER over just 3 IP.  Despite the poor results overall, he comes home with solid K/9, BB/9 and Swing K% numbers that suggest he’ll be just fine.
• The Dodgers have a very strong bullpen with three established CLs in Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Blake Treinen. Scott got the first one, as expected, but it was Alex Vesia that picked up the second SV. The morale of the story here, as shown in the Tokyo Series, all four have some Points league relevance.  Personally, I like to have a few high leverage RPs on my roster, especially in Best Balls, to ensure the end of my pitching roster garners 10-12 points per week.  This is especially valuable early in the season when SPs don’t necessarily go deeper into games yet.
• Landon Knack gets a W then a ticket to Oklahoma City to begin the season at AAA. It does serve as a reminder that it’s not only high-leverage relievers who vulture wins every now and then.  Just as we saw here, that seems to happen early on and you really don’t want to chase those too much.

I’ll admit, I got up early to watch the start of both games.  Come Thursday morning, I felt a bit of a letdown and made me more eager for Opening Day.  There’s still more pre-season work to be done though.  I’ll be drafting right up to first pitch and hoping to navigate any more injuries.  If that’s you too, take everything you’ve learned and go build that winning team.

For the rest who are done, take some time to go through and make sure your lineups are set.  Don’t let a last-minute injury or demotion sneak up on you – especially in deep leagues.

Counting down the hours until we hear:

“PLAY BALL!” 

As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends.