Keeper and dynasty league owners have to approach drafts a little differently. The pool of players is smaller after a large chunk of players are protected. Prospects are in the mix even if they are years away. In many long term keeper leagues it’s against the rules to pick up players who weren’t signed by an MLB team at the start of the season. This means that each spring a new crop of international signings enters the pool along with players from the previous year’s amateur draft. Two such players for the upcoming 2015 season are Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas. Both are outfielders from Cuba. Both created a great deal of buzz and signed with their respective clubs for multi-million dollar contracts. Both are major league ready and could make an impact in the fantasy game immediately. And yet both are relatively unknown and have question marks just as Jose Abreu did last year. Which one should we take in our first year player drafts in fantasy? That’s a question which has appeared more than a few times in the comments and is worth looking into.
Rusney Castillo, OF | BOS | Age: 27
Castillo already has some major league playing time under his belt, so we have a slightly better idea of what his game looks like. In just 40 plate appearances with the Red Sox in September, he hit two homers and stole three bags. After suffering a thumb injury in the AFL, Castillo is back at it in the Puerto Rican winter league. He projects to be the center fielder for the Red Sox, but he could also end up in right depending how the offseason shakes out. Where he hits in the batting order is also still up in the air. Castillo has some power, but just how much is the question. He’s fast. His speed grades at 70 on the 20-80 scale and could translate to anywhere from 20-30 steals in the majors. How the power plays will make all the difference to his value in dynasty leagues. Since the speed will only last so long, it’s the power that will need to carry his fantasy value through his early 30s.
Comparisons to Rajai Davis and fellow Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino have been floated out there. Neither name is going to make a fantasy owner grab a change of pants, but give Castillo 600 plate appearances in the Boston lineup and he’s going to be a very useful player in fantasy. Again, the unknown is the power and the safe bet is probably ~15 homers.
Yasmany Tomas, OF | ARI | Age: 24
Since we are talking keepers/dynasties, let’s start with Tomas’s age. He is three years younger than Castillo, just turning 24 in November. This means a dynasty owner investing in Tomas is getting the Cuban outfielder as he is entering his prime years. His best tool is his power. In Ben Badler’s report from Baseball America, he grades Tomas’s raw power as 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Raw power is of course different from game power, but we’re still talking about 25-30 home runs. Personally, I value power (home runs) more than any of the other stats in my 5×5 leagues and it’s generally been a successful strategy. Tomas is athletic, but he’s not going to contribute much in the speed department and he’s certainly not comparable to Castillo speed-wise. One other positive note regarding Tomas is where he actually signed. Arizona is one of the best possible places for him to have landed. Not only will he be in a solid lineup that features Paul Goldschmidt and others, but Chase Field is a good hitter’s park – especially for a right-handed hitter. Only Coors Field and the Rogers Centre were better environments for righties according to 3-year averages from MLBModel’s park factor calculator.
In that same report from Badler, he gives us three comps for Tomas. Marcell Ozuna and Dayan Viciedo represent the ceiling and the floor, while Marlon Byrd represents the middle (and most likely) result. It’s important to remember that there is still risk associated with Tomas, just like there would be with any prospect before they reach the majors. It’s not as easy as saying Tomas is the next Abreu. He doesn’t have quite the same power as Abreu and will probably hit in the .260-.270 range.
The Verdict: If my FYPD was today, I’d lean Tomas over Castillo. It’s close, and for 2015 alone Castillo could very well be better. But the age and power give Tomas the edge long term. Which would you take?
