Aptronyms fascinate me. It’s when one’s name fits perfectly to their occupation. Like if my name were Grey Albrightaboutfantasy. Nominative determinism says there’s a causal relationship between a person being attracted to areas of work that fit their name. For unstints, Usain Bolt runs fast, Thomas Crapper worked with toilets, and Prince and Cecil Fielder were fielders. Think about this before naming your kid, Dumbass. Or Dumbass Jr., if your name is already Dumbass. Though, just naming your kid, Presidentoftheworld, isn’t going to be all they need. With all that said, Pete Crow-Armstrong does a crow hop and combines both solid arm strength and accuracy. Overall, his fielding is excellent. Let’s see an example:
Pete Crow-Armstrong with an outstanding catch. ? pic.twitter.com/YgkZpWggg1
— MLB (@MLB) March 7, 2023
One more because hitting videos are going to be tougher to find:
Pete Crow-Armstrong and his amazing defense have arrived in the bigs! pic.twitter.com/SKwp0K9a8c
— MLB (@MLB) September 13, 2023
Have I been hit on the head and suddenly care about defense? Yes, I have been hit on the head, but that has nothing to do with me talking about Pete Crow-Armstrong’s fielding. Am I talking to the three of you that are in leagues that have errors as a category? No, I’m not. I’m talking into existence Craig Counsell realizing Mike Tauchman sucks. Mike Suckman, so to speak. Okay, maybe not suck, but he can’t play center field for much longer as the 21-year-old Pete Crow-Armstrong twiddles his thumbs in the minors. He’s not Pete Crow-Thumbstrong. So, what can we expect from Pete Crow-Armstrong for 2024 fantasy baseball?
First off, the good news beyond his defense: The Mets traded him away. So, you know he’s going to be great! I kid. That didn’t work for Kelenic. Pete Crow-Armstrong was drafted in the 1st round by the Mets in 2020, then traded for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams. There’s no amount of woofing that is loud enough. He is now the Cubs’ number one hitting prospect. Here’s what I said in September, “Cubs are calling up Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is little known Pixar character from the movie, The Wowzers. It was a blatant ripoff of The Incredibles, where the main character, Pete Crow-Armstrong idolized Jim Thorpe, went to sleep one night and woke being able to “crow hop” a throw to home from the deepest part of the outfield. A critics’ darling that audience reviews on Rotten Tomatoes called, “Pixar continues to make all female characters’ main attribute their giant rear ends.” So, here’s what Itch said previously, “The surprise prize of the Javy Baez trade, Pete Crow-Armstrong features a quick but simple stroke in a 6’0” 184 lb frame. PCA is a double-plus defender who just posted 16 home runs and 32 stolen bases in 101 games across two levels (in 2022) where he was younger than the league average. He chipped in 20 doubles and 10 triples, slashing .312/.376/.520 on the season. The power has been a nice bonus, considering the profile isn’t dependent upon it. Here’s hoping: His power and my fist into Grey’s head.” Oh cmon! PCA’s gone 20/37 across two levels in 107 games this year. He seems to have a little bit of a contact problem (29.7% in Triple-A), but has speed for an inflated BABIP.” And that’s me quoting me and Itch!
We’re through the looking glass for holding down prospects. That he was already called up, and, due to his defense, I believe Pete Crow-Armstrong could be set to start the year with the Cubs and be short-listed for NL ROY. From what I’ve seen so far, he’s an afterthought in redraft leagues, but I bet that changes when the Cubs’ intentions for him in 2024 become more obvious in March. If you’re drafting early, I’d grab Crow-Armstrong before his ADP zooms up draft boards, as he looks like a solid contender for a 15/30 season. His average could be less than ideal, as I said above, but he was 21 (will be until end of March), and contact can come later, as we’ve seen with lots of players. For 2024, I’ll give Pete Crow-Armstrong projections of 54/10/48/.234/24 in 441 ABs with a chance for more.
No legit bookies in my area. The one we have is offering +3600 on the Cubs winning it all.
A $28 bet would pocket a clean $1,008. Not a bad gamble at all.
Jolt
That’s solid! I’d do it
Good day everyone,
I have a 10th pick in a keep for 3 years 5×5 14 team traditional category roto league. My choices will be between Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Lindor, Vladdy or Wheeler. How would you rank these guys in the keep for 3 years format?
Lindor, Albies, Riley, Vlad
Thanks Grey! Enjoy the heck out of the day!
Thanks!
Ohio gyoza! Welcome back from the land that Sadauhara Oh built.
Mentioned while you were gone that I’ve been looking to see if I could find any correlation between PA in the prior year and fantasy value in the subsequent year. I went back to 2022 and looked at PAs and then divided guys up by 0-50 PAs, 50-110ish, 100ish to 200 and between 200-300 in 2022. Here are a few things I saw.
0-50 PAs
There were a handful of guys here that returned 2023 value after few or no PAs in 2022. Listed here by Name, 2022 PAs, 2023 Player Rater Rank:
Outman, 16, 101
Esty Ruiz, 21, 117
Tovar, 35, 156
McClain, 0, 178
Elly DLC 0, 179
Volpe, 0, 208
Yanier Diaz, 9, 224
Michael Garcia, 23, 252
Walker, 0, 268
FraAlverez 14, 199
Royce Lewis, 41, 321
Noda, 0, 329
Julian, 0, 348
Gelof, 0, 390
These are the only guys in the category that cracked the top 400. My takeaways here:
All and all, this group doesn’t look like a great fishing hole, but there definitely were a handful of useful player here.
More to come…
Haha, thanks! Yes, I agree 100% with this! Well put! If a guy has even a cup of coffee in Sept, he’s way more interesting…If that guy has a job locked up? Even better…Prospects who are great (Chourio, Holliday) with no MLB at-bats are exciting, but likely overdrafted unless the team says they have a job in April, and even then I’ll believe it when I see it…It’s like September waiver wire guys…Call-ups are nice, but at-bats matter most
I am somewhat playing small sample size theater because I just looked back to 2022, but it’s still kind of an interesting exercise. There’s data out there in the sabr world that suggest many hitting stats need 50-100 before they go from being noise to data.
Personally, for players in the 0-50 cup of coffee range I’m not going emphasize prospect status and playing time projection. I probably wouldn’t raise my projections just because a guy like Outman got 12 ABs. Maybe there’s some ancillary benefit to having experience the big leagues etc., but for the most part it won’t fact or in for me…but
The 50+ PA guys I do think it makes a difference because some of the stats, particularly contact rates and bb/k rates stabilize in that range and so you might be getting some real insight into those player by looking at their cup of coffee numbers.
The 50-150ish PA guys from ’22 who were top 400 in ’23:
Carrol 115, 5
Gunnar 132, 55
Steer 108, 69
N. Jones 94, 118
Jung, 102, 147
Casas 95, 189
Carpenter, 113, 192
Raley 72, 243
Benson, 61, 320
Moniac, 112, 396
Langliers 153, 349
I do think there are a few more opportunities here. I had shares of Lowe, Casas and Raley coming out of the and they were definitely helpers. Again, there aren’t many guys here, just 10 but other than the top 2 they were all basically free in drafts.
I think these extra 50-100 ABs do make a difference. There’s kind of a second tier/post-hype prospect vibe.
It’s interesting. There are only about 25 players in total who had 150 fewer ABs in 22 who were relevant in 23. It’s kind of a reminder that hitters don’t generally come out of nowhere. It goes back to the conversation about pitchers, where you probably want to come out of the draft more complete in your hitting and just be aware that almost every team is going to have to find pitching late and for sure in season.
Also, I love how much our avatars look alike.
HAHA, I never noticed that before
Also, after my last point about starting clocks, I think 50=100 ABs can help a hitter feel comfortable in the majors and take nerves off…Or even give them something to look forward to in spring training and the new year…It’s a confidence boost…
See, my bigger thing, whether it’s right or not — I think 50 ABs in the MLB in Sept. can be written off almost completely, but it means the team is looking at you for a position and they’re ready to start your clock — that’s the key, I think
i think your last point is valid. especially now that September call ups aren’t unlimited.
Yeah, totally
Is it just me, or do this year’s prospects seem less intriguing from a fantasy perspective as others? I mean, recently we’ve had Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Bobby Witt, Adley, Torkelson, Elly, etc. These forecasts pieces aren’t giving me any winter wood like they usually do.
The problem is the guys who will truly excite (Chourio, Holliday) aren’t locks to break camp like Corbin, JulRod, Gunnar, etc
Thoughts on this trade 18 team dynasty 6×6…was offered Nolan Jones and Caleb Ferguson for Dylan Cease…I jumped on that!!
I like it!
As a Cubs fan I would love to see PCA succeed in the majors in 2024. As a realist I see a guy who went 0 for 14 with 7 strikeouts at the MLB level and looked very overmatched in each at bat.
Despite PCA putting up a combined lined of .280 / 20 / 82 / 37 in 2023 across AA and AAA, I believe he needs another half season in AAA. His 30% K rate and 66% contact rate last year at the AAA level were not great, albeit over only 140 at bats, so I’d send him back to AAA for more experience before letting him face MLB pitching again.
Yeah, you might be right about the contact, but that’s the kind of thing that should get better, and plus defense plays
Grey!!!
Awesome report on PCA.
On my last pick in a 40-round best ball (3xHR, 3xSB, 0xK, 1xH, 1xBB for hitting, for pitching 6xW, 3xQS, 6xSV, -1.5xER, 1.5xIP, 1.5K, -0.5xH+BB)
Must play C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF and 1 more hitter (any hitter) and maximum 9 pitchers.
The roster
Francisco Alvarez, C, -NYM
Yainer Diaz, C, -HOU
Triston Casas, 1B, -BOS
Matt Mervis, 1B, -CHC
Nolan Schanuel, 1B, -LAA
Nolan Gorman, 2B, -STL
Edouard Julien, 2B, -MIN
Rafael Devers, 3B, -BOS
Maikel Garcia, 3B, -KC
Curtis Mead, 3B, -TB
Oneil Cruz, SS, -PIT
Matt McLain, SS, -CIN
Wilyer Abreu, OF, -BOS
Evan Carter, OF, -TEX
Jackson Chourio, OF, -MIL
Dylan Crews, OF, -WSH
Jarren Duran, OF, -BOS
Adolis Garcia, OF, -TEX
Luis Matos, OF, -SF
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, -BOS
Esteury Ruiz, OF, -OAK
Juan Soto, OF, -SD
Active: 22
Pitching
Shane Baz, SP, -TB
Jhony Brito, SP, -NYY
Walker Buehler, SP, -LAD
Braxton Garrett, SP, -MIA
Orion Kerkering, SP, -PHI
Pablo Lopez, SP, -MIN
Trevor Rogers, SP, -MIA
Paul Skenes, SP, -PIT
Justin Steele, SP, -CHC
Gavin Stone, SP, -LAD
Hurston Waldrep, SP, -ATL
Jordan Wicks, SP, -CHC
Yennier Cano, RP, -BAL
Alexis Diaz, RP, -CIN
DL Hall, RP, -BAL
Evan Phillips, RP, -LAD
Sawyer Gipson-Long, P, -DET
Active: 17
In my queue,
J. Lopez, SP, -TB
J. McCarthy, OF, -ARI
D. Hernaiz, SS, -OAK
D. Schneider, 2B, -TOR
J. Adam, RP, -TB
G. Mitchell, OF, -MIL
D. Blanco, OF, -KC
S. Horwitz, 1B, -TOR
J. deGrom, SP, -TEX
T. Hence, SP, -STL
J. Jones, SP, -PIT
T. Johnston, 1B, -MIA
What do you think? Who would you take for your last pick? Will post the draft results and round / pick numbers. PCA went in round 28, pick 3 of this best ball.
Cheers,
Ante
Round 28 seems solid for PCA…I’d grab Davis Schneider — wild how late deGrom is going…I loove your team, your hitting looks so solid, surprised you were able to get all of those guys…Your pitching seems very wonky, hopefully it’s okay, but you have a few solid arms with upside, but no one that trustworthy…
Grey!
Thanks man. Schneider and DeGrom were scooped up. Any others you like? Dairon had 24 SBs in limited action last year.
Cheers,
Ante
Sure, he’s fine…no one is jumping out…You need pitching, and I don’t see any there…Garrett Mitchell is kinda interesting
By the way I saw severino was meeting with the Mets. That’s a match made in heaven. He’ll fit right in. He’ll hurt something a week after pitchers and catchers report.
Severino on the Mets seems too perfect, he’ll never see the mound
I remember last year the buzz for mervis and then watched the cubs sign Hosmer and Mancini. I hope they don’t do something like that again. It turned out mervis wasn’t ready and the cubs were kind of right, they just signed the wrong guys.
Mervis seems like a bust…PCA needs better contact, but he also has fantastic defense which should get him on the field
What do you see a prime PCA season looking like at this juncture?
Maybe 20/30, but he needs to make way better contact
This post is not showing on the home page.
And, now it is!
Noticed that’s been happening recently, not sure why
Weird