He’ll battle pitchers whenever the team’s in trouble
Connor Joe is there!
[A real OMT hero]
Connor Joe is there!
It’s Connor Joe against all the naysayers, fighting to play everyday!
He never gives up, he’s always there
Fighting for at-bats on the road and in the mile-high air
Connor Joe is there!
[A real OMT hero]
Connor Joe is there!
Connor Joe is the name of a man on a mission
Highly trained, overcoming testicular cancer!
His purpose, to play and ruin the plans of Bud Black, a naive manager who rosterblocks all the prime candidates away
He never gives up, he’ll stay ’till the games won
Connor Joe will dare!
Connor Joes is there!
[A real OMT hero]
Connor Joe is there!
Connor Joe is 29 years old, 6’0″, and 205 pounds. He was drafted in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Three years later, he was sent to the Atlanta Braves and then shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers a few months later. He was scooped up by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft then traded to the San Franciso Giants a year later. He was designated for assignment then scooped up by the Dodgers again. He missed 2020 due to testicular cancer then made his return to baseball after the Colorado Rockies signed him to a minor league contract in 2020. Basically, Joe has been around and then some.
For much of his minor league career, the walk rate was above 10% while the strikeout rate was below 20%. The power didn’t manifest until he reached the Dodgers, where the ISO was in the .200 range. He hit 11 and 15 home runs in 248 and 446 plate appearances while posting batting averages of .304 and .300. Yo Joe!
Last season, he received 110 plate appearances in Triple-A and hit 9 home runs with a .326/.418/.696 slash. The walk rate was 13.6% while the strikeout rate was 20%. The ISO was an eye-popping .370. As a result, he was sent to The Show where he accrued 211 plate appearances in 63 games. He hit 8 home runs with a .285/.379/.469 slash. The walk rate was 12.3% while the strikeout rate was 19.4% and the ISO was .184.
He played 32 games in left field and posted a .968 fielding percentage. In 14 games at first base, the fielding percentage was .982. The defensive versatility should provide a floor for his playing time but will he be a utility player or one who gets regular at-bats?
Steamer currently has him down for 334 plate appearances while Rudy has him down for 366. With the NL DH, Charlie Blackmon should get plenty of plate appearances there with Raimel Tapia and Sam Hilliard manning center and right field. Yonathan Daza is a fourth outfielder while Garrett Hampson will likely fill the utility role. There is a path in which Joe gets most of the plate appearances in left field. If so, he could approach 500 plate appearances or more if he stays healthy.
Let’s dig into the hitting.
I love players who have a walk rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 20%. He’s shown that he has some pop and can bat for a decent average. He handled MLB heat last season, posting a .366 batting average against the pitch while only whiffing 11.5% of the time. The swinging strike rate was only 8.9%, the chase rate was only 22.4%, and he had a 78.6% contact rate with 88% in the strike zone.
Now for the bad. Boooo, you’re such a party pooper, Son!
He was awful against offspeed and breaking pitches. Against breaking pitchers according to Statcast, the average was .200 and he whiffed 36.9% of the time. Against offspeed pitches, the numbers were worse at .136 average and 38.2% whiff rate.
Fangraphs had him down with a 42.6% pull rate last season, so my initial thought was that he cheats for the fastball which exposes him to breaking stuff. Looking at video and heat maps, I don’t think that’s the case. He has a very quick bat and is able to turn on inside pitches. His hot zones are actually low and away while it’s cold inside. If he was cheating, the two would be reversed.
When I look at his spray chart from last season, there is further evidence that he’s not purely a pull hitter. Three of his home runs were to left field, but he hit two to dead-center, and three oppo tacos. He hit three doubles to center/right field with two to left field. The distribution of singles is fairly even to left, center, and right as well.
The ability to utilize all parts of the field, the low swing and miss to his game, and discerning eye have me confident that Joe can make the necessary adjustments to what will likely be a heavier dose of offspeed pitches this season.
As with all Rockies hitters, we have to look at the home/away splits. Last season, the walk and strikeout rates remained constant whether at home or on the road. The power and slash were predictably much better at Coors Field: .333/.424/.611 with a .278 ISO. On the road, it was .252/.349/.374 with a .121 ISO.
He’s being selected as the 319th player in NFBC drafts from 2/1/2022 to 3/16/2022. That’s probably due to the possibility of sophomore slump, old age, and uncertainty about role. As mentioned above, there is a good possibility that he earns a starting role. The Rockies have been looking for upgrades on offense, particularly in the outfield, so if that manifests, then the projections of a utility player will likely be the correct one. What if the Rockies don’t make a move and Joe gets over 500 plate appearances?
The risk/reward seems favorable to me. There’s upside to profit and if the Rockies do sign someone or announce him as a utility player, then he’s an easy drop.
P.S. – So, of course, the Rockies signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million deal yesterday. I’m too proud of my intro to this piece so I’m not trashing it. One man’s trash is another’s treasure, right? That said, while it’s likely now “Oh no Joe!” there is still some semblance of hope. Tapia could get traded or he outright wins…..Who am I kidding? I have angered the gods and now I must pay penance. I hope that you were at least entertained.
