Anytime I can write and talk about a fellow Asian baseball player in MLB, the two minuscule hairs on my arms perk up. So, Steven Kwan it was supposed to be, but he’s the toast of the town and there will be thousands of articles written about him. He is Grey’s new Asian boy toy. Did you know that Grey has an Asian fetish? There’s Jay, me, and BDon. So, as much as I wanted to espouse about the Kwan, that is not my role at Razzball. As Jesus took in the lepers and poor, I dumpster dive into the trash and write up the stinky, shitty, and scraps in the fantasy baseball streets. This is why I get paid the big bucks. Kolten Wong is on a number of my teams. Was he ever going to be a league winner? Niet but double-digit home runs and steals were expected with decent plate discipline numbers. So far in 2022, he’s been awful, going 3-for-21 with five strikeouts. As a result, he’s been dropped by 8.4% of teams in ESPN leagues. So, this begs the question? What has been so Wong with Kolten?
At first glance, the 23.8% strikeout rate and .200 BABIP stand out. In his nine-year MLB career, the strikeout rate has never been above 19.4%, which was the number posted in his rookie season. The .200 BABIP could mean that he’s been unlucky but context is always important so let’s dig in.
Looking at the batted ball data, the GB/FB rate is 0.83. He has never had a number below 1.19. The increased line drive rate is a welcome sign but the higher fly ball rate comes with a whopping 16.7% infield fly ball rate. Yuck. He’s pulling the ball 53.3% of the time. Previously, he never had a number above 45%.
The plate discipline numbers have been fantastic as always. The contact rate in the zone has come down a few percentage points but it’s still at 88.6%. The contact rate, in general, has remained in the 81% area. The swinging strike rate is below 9% while the chase rate has plummetted to a career-low 20.5%.
Then I looked at how pitchers were attacking him.
Opposing pitchers have been throwing the fastball only 28.9% of the time, a career-low. Last season, Wong saw fastballs 40.7% of the time, and he absolutely mashed the pitch. The batting average was .312 while the SLG was .520. So, it makes sense that pitchers would adjust. Wong has so far seen the changeup 18.9% of the time while the curveball usage has increased to 16.7%. Last season, those numbers were 10.8% and 14% respectively.
The picture becomes much more clear now. He’s pulling the ball more and popping up pitches at a higher rate because he is way in front of pitches due to all the offspeed stuff he’s been seeing.
It’s just a matter of time before Wong makes an adjustment to the adjustment and gets his timing down. Throughout his career, he has had a negative value against the fastball only three times. Against the changeup and curveball, he’s been adequate against both pitches, mostly staying within the -1 and 1 range with a few outlier seasons. Once he gets his timing down and adjusts, the BABIP should spike up as well.
What is Wong with Kolten? It doesn’t look like anything structurally wrong. It’s early in the season and the sample size is small. Wong should get right sooner than later.
