With the MLB All-Star game set to begin in just a few hours and the first half of the season in the books, we’re provided with the perfect opportunity to hit the reset button on our fantasy teams and re-evaluate all MLB players for fantasy purposes. The players who are of particular interest are those who have significantly over or underperformed pre-season expectations thus far. For this week’s post, we’ll look at four players who were largely afterthoughts on draft day (late round picks and undrafted players) but have turned out to be high-end fantasy performers during the first half of the 2015 season. Will these players maintain their impressive levels of production? Are they “trash” or “treasure”? Barring injury, it’s difficult to envision any of these players being “trash” since they’ve been so good thus far, but some may be more reliable than others going forward. With that in mind, I’ll use the term “TRASH” to designate the players who might have more perceived value than actual value moving forward, and the term “TREASURE” to identify the players who are worth holding onto or perhaps even acquiring for the stretch run. Here are four players who exceeded expectations in the 1st half of 2015 (with their current positions on the year-to-date Razzball Player Rater):
Dallas Keuchel – 25th overall on the player rater, #3 SP
Keuchel is the only player on this list who was drafted in the top 200 overall this pre-season (ESPN ADP – 189.4), so his success hasn’t come completely out of the blue. In fact, Keuchel led all qualified starting pitchers with a 63.5% GB% in 2014, and his 2.93 ERA was the 19th lowest among all SPs as well. Most fantasy owners expected the regression fairies to pay Mr. Keuchel a visit this season, but that hasn’t happened thus far. If anything, he’s gotten even better. His ERA is down to 2.23 this season (6th lowest in MLB) while his 1.00 WHIP is the 9th best mark in the game. However, his 7.47 K/9 rate is fairly mediocre, and his .255 BABIP (.296 career) is due for a correction in the 2nd half. Though Keuchel has been excellent and should continue to be productive (2.82 FIP, 2.74 xFIP), a player like Yoenis Cespedes or Mookie Betts would be a realistic return in a straight-up deal. Might be a good time to sell. TRASH.
Lorenzo Cain – 21st overall, #10 OF
Cain has carried his terrific postseason play from last fall into this season, producing a .316/.373/.491 triple slash line in 2015. He ranks in the top 12 in MLB in batting average, runs scored, and stolen bases, and his 8 home runs and 42 runs batted in make him a true 5 category fantasy player. However, Cain’s eight homers already represents a career high for him at the major league level, and he’s never played in more than 134 games in any professional season during his entire career which dates back to 2006. Despite his above-average speed and ability to make contact, Cain’s .364 BABIP is likely to come down a bit as well. Selling this all-star player at his peak value seems like a smart move. TRASH.
Cameron Maybin – 51st overall, #19 OF
Maybin’s overall skill set and production this season has been eerily similar to the man who was just profiled. You could call him Cain 2.0. Age, size, power, speed – virtually identical. Cain has outpaced Maybin in runs scored (54 to 38) and batting average (.316 to .289), but it’s practically a dead heat in home runs (8 apiece), RBI (Maybin’s 44 to Cain’s 42), and SB (Cain’s 17 to Maybin’s 15). While the edge in runs is likely to remain due to Cain’s superior lineup, the batting average might end up closer than you think. Maybin is on-pace for career-best full season marks in both BB% (9.3%) and K% (18.2%), and his SwStr% (7.4%) is actually lower than Cain’s (8.4%). Maybin also stole 66 bases across the 2011-12 seasons prior to injuries over the past two seasons, so the speed numbers shouldn’t fall off much at all as long as he stays healthy. He’s essentially Cain with less name (and thus, trade) value. Hold him if you own him or try to acquire him at a discount from an owner who’s worried about 2nd half regression. TREASURE.
Stephen Vogt – 43rd overall, #2 C
As the #2 ranked fantasy catcher in 2015, Vogt has been nothing short of a godsend for his owners. To illustrate just how good he’s been this season, let’s compare his stats to those of fantasy’s #1 catcher, Buster Posey:
| Name | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Posey | 83 | 341 | 14 | 46 | 58 | 1 | 10.00% | 8.80% | 0.185 | 0.309 | 0.314 | 0.381 | 0.498 |
| Vogt | 85 | 329 | 14 | 43 | 56 | 0 | 12.50% | 18.80% | 0.211 | 0.314 | 0.287 | 0.374 | 0.498 |
Vogt has essentially been Posey with a slightly higher K-rate this season. Not too shabby.
However, there are a couple of things to be concerned about moving forward. Vogt’s 15.6% HR/FB is almost double his career rate entering this season, and his 277.19 ft average fly ball distance (141st in MLB) suggests that number will come down quite a bit. Also, the wear and tear of the catcher position seems to be affecting the 30-year-old at the plate recently. Since the beginning of June, Vogt has produced a .246/.329/.369 triple slash line with just 3 homers over that span. While Vogt is very likely to finish as a top 5 catcher in 2015, some regression (potentially significant) should be expected moving forward. TRASH.
