I used to love watching all the home renovation shows….until I actually started doing those renovations myself. So much pain. So much blood. So many tears. I gotta say, though. Looking back at those times now, I’m glad I did them. I learned so many new skills and I garnered some street cred with the wife…and happy wife….happy life. When I think about Triston Casas, it’s been nothing but tears this season – a far cry from the hope and optimism I used to have. But he’s undergone some renovations himself. Will this Casas have a happy ending as well?
Triston Casas was selected by the Boston Red Sox with the 26th overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft. Throughout his minor league career, the pop was always evident, as the ISO was often .200 or better, but what Casas was best known for was the plate discipline. The walk rate was often in the high teens, while the strikeout rate was usually in the 20% range.
When he made his MLB debut in 2022, Casas had a 20% walk rate with a 24.2% strikeout rate! The slash was only .197/.358/.408 with a .211 ISO, but the BABIP was only .208.
Over the next two seasons, the walk rate remained in the teens, but the strikeout rate started ticking up. The ISO was consistently over .200.
But Casas started getting some criticism for not being aggressive enough. In 2023, Casas had the 29th-lowest swing rate. I understand the critique, as chicks dig the long ball, and one can not hit dingers when one does not swing the bat. That said, some of the best power hitters in the game have a swing rate in the low-40% range – Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Kyle Schwarber.
So far this season, it looks like Casas has made a concerted effort to be more aggressive. He’s swinging at 51.2% of pitches overall and 73.7% in the zone. Those numbers were 44.5% and 63.9% last season. The chase rate has ticked up to 2% while the called-looking rate has plummeted to 11.5%. That number was 17.7% last season.
In addition, the launch angle has gone from 10.5 degrees to a 19.1 degrees! The average exit velocity is at 89.7 mph, just a tick below the 90.2 mph from last season. Unfortunately, the pull rate is still sub-40% while the barrel rate has decreased from 13% to 8.3%.
The BABIP is only .200, so he’s been getting unlucky. The ISO is a paltry .079, but we know he’s a .200-ish ISO guy.
When trying new things, it’s always fraught with trials and tribulations in the beginning. Sometimes the hole dug goes deeper and deeper, but more often than not, with more reps comes success like Omar Epps.
Triston Casas has been moved down in the lineup, from fourth to seventh, so that sucks. But the average exit velocity in the last five games have been 100.6, 83.4, 93.5, 99.6, and 98.6 mph. Casas is doing something outside of his comfort zone right now, but he’s too good of a hitter to not figure it out. I expect a heater at some point in the near future, resulting in Casas returning to the middle of the order and doing things that chicks dig.
UPDATE: This piece was written before Tuesday’s games.
Thoughts on Edward Cabrera? He was dropped in our 12 team dynasty 5×5 I have an open spot… should I grab him? Thsnk you
If you like to live dangerously. I’d only stream against the most favorable matchups
Regression to the mean at some point? He’s only 25….. Quit thinking and just hit the ball. Be an athlete. I think guys just need to do what got them there.
I disagree because baseball is all about adjustments and adjusting to adjustments.
He also missed significant time with an injury that forced him to a hitter is most likely a shoulder injury jury for a pitcher. It’s going to take time to feel normal and get your timing back after something like that. Once it warms up a bit and he feels back to normal you’ll be having the same conversation that he was too 5 in ops for the last x months when it happens.
Good point
A team in my keeper league dropped Casas on March 31, which completely shocked me. I had the #2 waiver wire priority and the team at #1 passed on him so I was able to pick him up. He had a good 3 or 4 games when I first picked him up and then fell off a cliff until the last couple of days. I’m banking that patience is going to pay off with him but man it’s only been a little over three weeks an it’s been a very hard ride!!!
I do think you’re assessment is spot on, and I do believe he’s too good of a hitter not to figure it out.
Yeah, it hasn’t been easy. I believe but that hasn’t always worked out well for me
Meditative planking cures what ails you.
Sounds painful
I’ve been pro Casas for 3 years in an obp league. It’s early, but it’s been rough. Every time I see guys thinking too much or making too many adjustments, it is a red flag. Eventually it gets inside their heads and makes everything worse. They seem to think too much. I can see that happening to him too. He is swinging more for sure, but he is getting away from his game and that could be an issue.
I wanted to cut him already but I can’t yet. After two hr’s in last two games, he sucked me back in. How long will it last this time? I have to honest. Outside of a nice stretch for a portion of 2023, what has he really done at the big league level? I want him to succeed but I need to see it happenfor a length of time. I am trying to be patient, but I can’t wait forever.
I’m with you. I have him in a 30-team dynasty. He’s still only 25 years old with a career 931 plate appearances.
Hey my man thanks for the article!
12 TM roto, Casas was dropped. It would ONLY be for U spot of trade bait. Bichette is my U now
How much of ($100) FAB would you drop on Casas? Would drop Steer
I wouldn’t drop Steer. I don’t think Casas is a priority in your league. I guess it depends on how many bench spots you have and if you can stash, but I’m assuming small benches.
Fun fact. Casas is batting .000 v starting pitchers this year.
2-for-48