One Man’s Trash: Make it Rainey in the Club

I used to play volleyball at the YMCA and there was a Russian guy named Serge who would come with his father. The old man couldn’t run or jump high but he was a technically proficient player. There’s no doubt he was a stud back in the Mother Land. Serge could jump but wasn’t so good. I enjoyed playing against him, though, because he was a yapper and would get so emotional. Suka Blyat this! Suka Blyat that! I didn’t know what the words meant but I knew what they meant, if you know what I mean. So one night, he was all charged up and must’ve downed a bottle of Smirnoff because he started talking smack and challenging. If I win, then you have to pay for drinks tonight. We used to grab drinks after the games from time to time. International relations and all. “Fine,” I said, “but if we win, I want a $100 worth of Rubles so that I can go make it rain in the club.” It’s a deal. As I double-fisted the stack of Rubles, I became so giddy inside because of the magic I would create in the club, even though after each step I took, the value of each Ruble was depreciating faster than a car off the lot. There was risk for sure as I could get kicked out of the club with nothing as they would realize that it was just funny money being thrown around. The upside? Tons of bills floating in the air, the music blaring, and everyone jumping up and down, having a good time. That is how I feel about Tanner Rainey this offseason.

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Tanner Rainey was terrible last season. In 31.2 innings, he posted a 7.39 ERA with a 5.63 FIP. All the depth charts and projection systems have him setting up for Kyle Finnegan, which makes sense but there is another path which would provide an exhorbitant return on the 408th overall player in NFBC drafts from January 1st to March 2nd of 2022.

Rainey is 29 yards old and was drafted by the Reds in the second round of the 2015 MLB draft. He was a starter but after being traded to the Nationals in 2018, he became a reliever. In 2019, he became one of manager Dave Martinez’s go-to guys. The K/9 was 13.78 and the swinging strike rate was 16.7%. He was pumping the fastball at an average of 97.8 mph but it was the devastating slider that wreaked havoc on the league. The pitch had an xBA of .118 and an xSLG of .118. The whiff rate was 63.1%! The big bugaboo was the 7.08 BB/9.

There was talk of him being the closer of the future. But, but, but. There’s always a but. Someone cue up the Sir Mix-a-lot. Injuries have always been an issue. There was tightness in the forearm during the 2020 campaign, a strained muscle near the collarbone before the start of the 2021 season, and he missed two months last season with a flexor strain.

That happened to be when Kyle Finnegan took over the closing duties for the Nationals. He ended the season with 11 saves. The K/9 was 9.27, BB/9 was 4.64, and the FIP was 4.52. He averaged 95.7 mph on the fast, so he’s no chump in the velocity department but his secondary pitches have nowhere near the potency of Rainey’s. As a result, the swinging strike rate was 10.6%.

Now, when Rainey returned to action towards the end of last season, he was the guy to close out games. Not Finnegan. It’s well within the range of outcomes that Rainey is the closer with Finnegan setting him up. Let’s compare the numbers from last season:

Dave Martinez is still the manager of the Nationals and we know that he trusts Rainey, who has been talked about being the closer of the future of the past. Rainey closed ahead of Finnegan last season. Tanner Rainey has more explosive stuff and a higher ceiling. He’s free in drafts so if he isn’t the closer or gets injured, it’s no biggie. The risk/reward is very, very favorable.