Sequels often suck and end up disappointing. But why? Maybe all the creative energy used to create the OG left nothing for future endeavors. Many could just be money grabs to mine the popularity of the first. Heightened expectations may not satisfy no matter how good it is. Whatever the reason, we have become cynical to sequels, and for good reason, because they have not delivered time and time again. But that does not mean they always do. Godfather 2 and The Dark Knight say hi. Last season, I wrote an article for J.P. Crawford, One Man’s Trash: J. (ust) P. (lay) Crawford. I am writing the sequel today. Let’s see if it can stand the test of time and languish in the pantheon of the greats.
I usually write up the basic background of a player and their minor league history, but I did all that in the OG, so click on the above link to get that info and provide Grey and I $.000000001.
Crawford ended last season with 19 home runs, 94 runs, 65 RBI, and two stolen bases. The walk rate was 14.7% while the strikeout rate was 19.6%. He finished with a .172 ISO and .266/.380/.438 slash. Steamer has Crawford projected for 14 home runs, 86 runs, 60 RBI, and four stolen bases with a .259/.355/.391 slash, 12.0% walk rate, 17.3% strikeout rate and .132 ISO.
Most projection systems look at the past three seasons and average them out. In Crawford’s case, that makes the most sense because 2023 looks like an outlier. Prior to last season, he had a .093 and .103 ISO.
But it’s been well documented that he went to Driveline and changed his approach. He started pulling the ball more to increase the power. The pull rate went from the mid-30s to 43% last season. The average exit velocity went from 85 mph to 88.3. The barrel went from 2.0% to 4.8% while the launch angle went from 8.9 to 15.1 degrees. The strikeout rate did increase but that’s to be expected, as there are no rewards without risk. But he was more patient, chasing fewer pitches outside the zone and increasing the walk rate from 11.3% to 14.7%.
So, here’s my question? Why does he have to regress? Why can’t he build upon last season? It was his first year utilizing Driveline. That was 101. He may learn new things in Year Two or just better apply what he learned and experienced last season.
Crawford is also 6-foot-2 and 202 pounds, so there may be more untapped power there. If he was 5-foot-7 and 175 pounds, then maybe I’d have some skepticism but then I think of Jose Altuve, all 5-foot-6 and 166 pounds of him. Early in his career, he had an ISO at .100 or below. In 2015, it went up to .146 then, in 2016, spiked up to .194. He’s essentially been a .200+ ISO hitter since, except for two seasons. He also started pulling the ball more yet elevated the walk rate too.
Will Crawford take the same trajectory as Altuve? Probably not, but I think it’s well within the range of outcomes. At least, the probability is higher than what most are expecting. Crawford is being drafted as the 304th player in NFBC drafts since February. Last season, he finished 136th on the Razzball Player Rater.
The risk/reward seems mighty favorable to me, since he’s priced at his floor, yet there’s a chance he exceeds last season’s numbers. Crawford won’t steal bases, which takes the shine off for us fantasy nerds, but he is batting leadoff and should score a ton of runs while accruing plenty of plate appearances.
The expectation is for Crawford’s sequel to be a poor one. I’m a buyer at these prices.
A good question. They said the same about Drury. Even now they have him pegged for less homers than the last two. J.P. Should outperform his ADP by a long shot!
We are kindred spirits