In the Bible, Jacob was a monumental figure. He wrestled with an angel and was eventually given the name Israel. He is referred to as a Hebrew patriarch of the Abrahamic religions. Jacob Lopez of the Athletics is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He was selected in the 26th round of the 2018 MLB draft and has been traded twice in his career. But, as the Bible’s Jacob was wily and lived with a craftiness and ingenious wit, the Athletic’s Jacob has been befuddling opposing batters with guile so far this season. Let’s dig in.
Lopez is 27 years old, 6′ 4″, 220 pounds, and throws from the left side. He’s a soft-tossing lefty that averages 90 mph on the fastball.
Throughout his minor league career, despite the lack of fastball velocity, Lopez often put up a strikeout rate above 30%, with two seasons around 40%! He kept the ball in the yard and displayed good control. That is, until he hit Triple-A, where the walk rate spiked to 14% after being around six percent for most of his minor league career.
Lopez made his MLB debut with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023. He pitched 12.1 innings and posted a 4.38 ERA, but the FIP was much lower at 2.93. The strikeout rate was only 14.8%, but the walk rate was a miniscule 3.7% and he did not allow a home run. In 2024, he only pitched 10.1 innings, and the results were completely different. The ERA was 5.23, but the FIP was much higher at 6.75. The strikeout rate was 17.4%, but the walk rate was a whopping 15.2%.
Small sample sizes alert! That said, those two starts illuminated the wide range of outcomes for Lopez.
Lopez was traded to the Athletics prior to the 2025 season. He pitched 27 innings in Triple-A and straight dominated. The strikeout rate was 36.5% while the walk rate was 7.7%. He only allowed two home runs. The ERA was 2.33 while the FIP was 2.99.
Lopez was up with the big club in April, but as a reliever. After three appearances out of the bullpen, he received his first start on April 29th, but only went 2.2 innings. In his next start, he went seven innings against the Philadelphia Phillies at home, walking one, striking out eight, and allowing one earned run on three hits. In the next outing, he got lit up for seven earned runs by the Blue Jays in 1.2 innings in Toronto. I wasn’t joking when I wrote a wide range of outcomes earlier.
The yo-yoing continued. Then, in July, Lopez had a four game stretch in which he allowed three, four, two, and five earned runs. This is when I noticed that Rudy’s bot for the Weekly Pitcher Planner started advocating for Lopez.
By the way, the Weekly Pitcher Planner is such an amazing tool and is one of my staples for both batter and pitcher information. I highly recommend it. Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
I picked up Lopez for the start against the Arizona Diamondbacks at home in an RCL. Lopez went five innings, walked two, and struck out five without allowing an earned run in five innings. I kept him on that roster out of incompetence and forgetfulness, but I’ve sure been happy with the results. What’s the expression? Better to be lucky than good.
In the next two starts, Lopez went 7.2 innings and struck out 10 without issuing a walk or allowing an earned run on three hits. He then went seven innings and struck out nine without issuing a walk or allowing an earned run on four hits. In his most recent outing, he went six innings, walked one, and struck out eight while allowing two earned runs on four hits.
Lopez has been a popular pickup recentl,y and I wanted to dig in to see if it’s sustainable.
On the season, the strikeout rate is 29.1% while the walk rate is 8.1%. As mentioned earlier, he’s shown the propensity to have both elevated strikeout rates with excellent control.
Where Lopez has really shone is in limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 86.4%, barrel rate is 6.1% and hard hit rate is 32%. The average exit velocity is the fourth-lowest in MLB. The barrel rate is 10th-lowest. The hard hit rate is third-lowest!
The flyball rate is 49.6%, which is scary, but the ability to limit hard contact and barrels mitigates the fear somewhat.
The chase rate isn’t robust at 27%, but the swinging strike rate is 12%.
We know about the 90 mph fastball, which Lopez throws 37.1% of the time. Lopez throws a changeup 13.6% of the time, a cutter 14.5%, but the bread and butter is the slider, which he throws 30.5% of the time and has the highest run value in his arsenal.
Despite the limited velocity, Lopez’s extension of 7.2 inches is in the 95th percentile, which explains why the fastball is so effective.
Lopez is a really good pitcher, but I have some concerns going forward. He’s shown to have a wide range of outcomes in the past and as he pitches more, opposing batters will get more comfortable with his stuff, and a book will be written. That said, that may not happen until next season.
Cautious optimism.
