Sample size is an important thing in all walks of life. You could have the most wonderful day with someone, but that one day is not indicative of what it’s like to be with that person every day. That alternate route you discovered with no traffic on the morning commute? Was it due to your keen intellect, or maybe it was a result of the armored car hemorrhaging dollar bills from the open door in the back? Really, the only times a false positive doesn’t exist is when you don’t want to be a baby momma or daddy and when a player searches for a second opinion. With that said, Josh VanMeter of the Cincinnati Reds has been added in 41.4% of ESPN leagues. What? I thought those leagues were all ghost. Anyways, VanMeter’s ownership is 0% in Razzball leagues. The Razzballers are a sharp group. I could give you a million reasons why, but I was going to write up Jorge Soler this week, as he was added in 8.1% of ESPN leagues to bring his ownership up to 58.4%, but his ownership in Razzball leagues is 100%. Let’s see if VanMeter is registering a false positive.
VanMeter is 24 years old, stands 5′ 11″, weights 165 pounds, and bats from the left side of the plate. He was selected in the fifth round of the 2013 MLB draft by the San Diego Padres. In 2016, he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds.
Throughout his minor league career, VanMeter has exhibited good plate discipline and some speed on the base paths. The strikeout rate had exceeded 20% just once and he had a high walk rate of 19% in 2018. As for stolen bases, he stole 15 bases back in 2017. The power has developed over the past two seasons, as he’s clubbed 11 and 14 home runs in Triple-A. Yup, that’s the environment we live in.
So far this season, VanMeter has an 11.6% walk rate, a 22.1% strikeout rate, the ISO is at .230, and he’s batting .311, which is fueled by a .373 BABIP. This has resulted in 4 homeruns, 13 runs, 10 RBI, and 1 stolen base in 86 plate appearances. We have to zoom in a little further, though, because most of his time up was spent pinch hitting. It wasn’t until July 20th when he was inserted into the lineup full time and batting fourth or fifth. Since that time, he’s batting .444 with a .421 BABIP, the ISO is .519, the walk rate is 6.9%, and the strikeout rate is 13.8%. There’s obviously going to be regression, but how much?
The hard hit rate is 60.9% and the HR/FB rate is 66.7%. Uh, yeah. While he doesn’t kill gophers, the line drive rate is 43.5%, but the fly ball rate is only 26.1%. Do you hear that? What? That! Pssssssssss.
Looking at the plate discipline numbers, there’s a lot to like. The chase rate is only 25.4% and the swinging strike rate is 7.4%. The contact rates are in the low-80% range. Not great, but not bad. As for splits, he’s much better against right-handed pitching. When I look at the zone charts, there doesn’t seem to be many holes in his swing. The one zone where pitchers have successfully gotten him to swing-and-miss is middle-down, out of the strike zone.
VanMeter looks to be a fine hitter, but I’m not buying into this current heater. There’s a lot of luck fueling it and that HR/FB rate is simply unsustainable, especially since he doesn’t hit many fly balls to begin with. Tough to count on that type of efficiency. While he hits a great ballpark for half his games and he’s batting in the meat of the order, this is his first experience in the big leagues. I say this every week, especially for young hitters, but pitchers will adjust. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Could VanMeter continue his heater? Sure, and there was actually an armored car a few weeks ago that had cash spilling out from it. Shit happens, but this VanMeter looks to be a false positive. TRASH
