As I was popping Bon Bons into my mouth while watching a Korean drama, I was so startled by the plot twist in said Korean drama that a few of my precious Bon Bons dropped, then slithered into the crevices of the couch. Without even bothering to press pause on the remote, I ceased all non-essential activities and thoughts, with the sole focus now of survival. Due to the delicate texture of the Bon Bons, I had to be precise and patient. All those years of playing Operation came in handy. Rescuing the first Bon Bon was no problem as it did not travel into the depths of couch hell. The others, though, would require major excavations. I lifted one couch cushion, then another as if the crust of the Earth was being peeled back and lifted. To my surprise, I not only found my precious Bon Bons fully intact, but I discovered three quarters, two dimes, flecks of cheese from Tito’s Tacos, and some unopened Halloween candy. It’s good to have kids….sometimes. Were these new discoveries Earth shattering? There would be no holidays created in my name in the future but they were solid findings. This is how I feel about Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets. Is he a league winner? Niet, but he’s solid and can provide some utility like the $.95 and Halloween candy I found in the couch.
Nimmo is 28 years old, 6’3″, and 206 pounds. He bats from the left side and plays in the outfield. He was drafted by the Mets with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft.
During his minor league career, he always showed a penchant for walking but the strikeout rate and power fluctuated. So did the batting average. He never hit more than six home runs in a season and had a high of 10 stolen bases. In 2016, everything clicked in Triple-A, as he hit 11 home runs and stole seven bases with a 10.4% walk rate, 16.4% strikeout rate, .189 ISO, and .352/.423/.541 slash. Granted, the BABIP was .411 so there was tons of luck but still pretty good numbers.
When he got to the bigs, he didn’t look overwhelmed as the batting average was in the .260-.270 range but the power was middling. In 2018, he played 140 games for the big club and accrued 535 plate appearances. He ended with 17 home runs. 77 runs, and nine stolen bases. The walk rate was 15%, strikeout rate was 26.2%, ISO was .219, and slash was .263/.404/.483.
Over the last three seasons, he’s hit eight home runs in each season. 888! The Chinese community is going ape shit right now! That was in 254, 225, and 386 plate appearances. For 2022, Steamer has him projected for 17 home runs, nine stolen bases, and 90 runs with a 14.4% walk rate, 21.1% strikeout rate, .170 ISO, and a .259/.377/.429 slash. That ain’t bad, especially for someone who is being drafted on average with the 322nd pick in NFBC drafts for March of 2022.
Now, the two main bugaboos for Nimmo are health and Buck Showalter.
Nimmo has had a plethora of injuries over the years that included injuries to the hamstring, finger, hip, and neck. When healthy, he’s performed well. Injuries are primarily about luck so here’s hoping for a healthy season.
Showalter is the new manager for the Mets. The reason why I say that he’s a bugaboo for Nimmo is because, in his 20 years as a manager, Showalter-managed teams have ranked dead-last in stolen bases seven times and been in the bottom third 16 of those years. Which could be a shame because Nimmo is in the 92nd percentile for sprint speed.
Now, here’s why I kind of like Nimmo.
He will likely bat leadoff for the Mets. That should get him close to 600 plate appearances in what could be an improved Mets offense. If you’ve read my work in the past, you know that I love guys who exhibit excellent plate discipline. Nimmo will have a walk rate over 10% and a strikeout rate of around 20%. The swinging strike rate will be below 10% while the chase rate is in the 20% range. The contact rate in the zone will be around 85% with a general contact rate in the high 70s.
His approach is solid as he goes to each part of the field roughly a third of the time. He doesn’t have massive power but the ISO should be in the .170 area. 88 players had an ISO over .170 last season. While he has more power against right-handed pitching, he’s adept at hitting lefties. The walk rate is 12.3% while the strikeout rate is a bit elevated at 28.2%. That said, he still has a .260/.378/.399 slash against them with a .139 ISO.
If I squint my Asian eyes a little tighter, I’d no longer have eyes!!! I kid, I kid. I could see a 20/10 season from Nimmo with an average in the .290 area. That’s the best case scenario. More than likely, Nimmo is a .260 hitter with 14 home runs and six stolen bases. That’s not Tony the Tiger Grrreeeeeaaaaattt!!! but it’s solid and won’t kill you, especially considering the cost.
