Life is all about utility. But one person’s concept of utility is different from another’s. Someone with tons of disposable income may view having a Ferrari as useful because it makes them feel better. Another who is living paycheck to paycheck may view that as silly. It very well may be, but it doesn’t matter because it serves a purpose for the owner. Religion is a hot bed topic that can spoil the most tastiest of dinners. Whatever side of the debate you are on, though, it doesn’t matter because religion is a personal experience that provides utility for that particular person. The same goes for fantasy baseball. We all have different perspectives and values on players and go about roster construction in unique ways. One man’s trash could very well be another’s treasure. Which brings me to Christian Arroyo. Who? Yeah, this is not going to be a sexy piece, although most of these aren’t, but whatever. I leave those for the real writers on the baseball side. Arroyo is being drafted as the 490th overall player in NFBC drafts from February so he won’t be an option for standard leagues, but could he have utility in deeper formats?
Arroyo is 27 years old, 6-foot-1, 210 pounds and bats from the right side. He was drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the first round of the 2013 MLB draft, traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018, shipped to the Cleveland Indians in 2019 then claimed off waivers by the Boston Red Sox in 2020.
Perusing the minor league stats, it’s more like Christian Mehroyo. He never hit more than 9 home runs in a season while stealing a high of 6 bases. He was never a big walker but didn’t strike out often either. The power was middling and the batting average was all over the map.
He’s had four stints in the majors, with two of those in Boston. Prior to last season, he never received more than 185 plate appearances. In 2022, he got 300 plate appearances and went for 6 home runs and 5 stolen bases. The walk rate was 4.3% while the strikeout rate was only 16.3%. The ISO was a pedestrian .129 but the slash was a decent .286/.322/414. He was a utility player for Boston, playing in the outfield and all over the infield.
If you’re still with me, I applaud your masochistic ways. So why do I have some intrigue for Arroyo?
The main allure is that he’s slated to start at second base. The Trevor Story injury has shifted Kike Hernandez to shortstop, giving the second base duties to Arroyo. Boston did sign Adalberto Mondesi but he’s Adalberto Mondesi so…..There’s a good chance that Arroyo receives way more than 300 plate appearances he saw last season. What if he gets closer to 500 plate appearances?
Steamer currently has Arroyo projected for 319 plate appearances with 8 home runs and 4 stolen bases. The walk rate is projected for 5.6% with a strikeout rate at 19.2%. The slash is at .261/.312/.414 with a .152 ISO. That ain’t bad, yo. If he gets 500 or more plate appearances, then it’s within the range of outcomes that Arroyo contributes 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases with a decent average. That ain’t bad, YO!
Digging into the numbers, there were three numbers that jumped out to me. The zone contact last season was 92.2%. If he qualified, that would’ve ranked him in the top 25 last season. The swinging strike rate was 10.3%. That would’ve placed him in the top 75.
But it’s the Statcast data that really intrigued me. Arroyo had an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph last season. That would’ve been top 80 in all of baseball last season. The max exit velocity was 112.2 mph, which would’ve been top 60!
Now, not all is sunshine and unicorns. The chase rate was 43%, which would’ve placed him in the top 10. He’s dealt with a plethora of injuries throughout his career and the 300 plate appearances last season were a career-high by a wide margin, so there isn’t much of a track record to rely on. Last year could have been a fluky, outlier season and he could struggle this season, resulting in being relegated back to a utility role. Finally, Boston could acquire someone before the start of the season to supplant him on the depth chart.
He is essentially free in drafts, though, so if he doesn’t pan out in a shallow league, then he’s an easy drop. In deeper leagues, if he doesn’t work out, it won’t affect things too much due to the palatable cost. But it’s within the range of outcomes that he does keep the starting role, does a good job, and becomes a useful fantasy piece. As mentioned above, 15/10 with a .260-ish average, which is a ceiling outcome but whatever, is pretty, pretty good. The risk/reward ratio seems favorable to me.
